I know the whole “don’t try to time the market” shtick but to those still investing, are you prepared to psychologically be in the red for 12+ years? S&p in April 2000 - 1.5k S&p in April 2013 - 1.5k s&p now - 3k (????) Like I honestly don’t understand how anyone can continue to invest in the stock market given this historic bull run and overly inflated stocks. Personally I’m holding 90% cash (bonds for 401k), 10% crypto. Once the fire sale happens I’ll be able to happy to have extra dry powder What’s everyone else’s asset allocation? TC: 210k NW: 110k
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WTF is OP smoking? I want to try some?? Rule 1: never invest all your money at 1 trade. Always be in the market and do dollar cost average. Buy when it's high and buy when it's low (buy more at low).
I don't disagree with the idea that we're heading to a correction. But if you really believe you can time it you should be in $SQQQ contracts.
I don’t think I can time it. I just know investing now would be absolutely ludicrous.
Bold strategy, Cotton. We'll see if it pays off.
For my own sanity I’m avoiding equities. I couldn’t sleep at night knowing I own such overvalued stocks
No, I getchu. I follow a momentum based model that had me exit equities a few times over the past years. There are a couple of possible triggers. Iran, Brexit, trade deals blowing up...
The point is to see a correction or crash as a discount. What would you have done in Aug-2000? 110k NW is nothing to fret over. Put that in perspective how much you need at 65ish.
I would’ve held and invested in 2001/2002.
OP is a giant dumb who does not know that SPX returns dividends. This causes him to post flame bait suggesting the S&P500 returned nothing from April 2000 to April 2013. It actually went up 36% and returned 2.5% annually with reinvested dividends. The whole thread is clickbait. OP is exposed as a fraud, what will he do?
You could’ve gotten the same return with a safer investment vehicle
OP tries to avoid the issue that he doesn’t understand what he’s taking about. And now IBM is trying to convince me dividends are “zero gain until you sell”. Amazing insight. Zero gains means I don’t need to pay taxes on dividends, right IBM? Tell that to the IRS! Everyone can learn from IBM, whose share price is inflated by financial manipulation and debt funded buybacks.
ITT: Economic 🔮 that will be looked on poorly in hindsight. See threads in Oct->Dec
Doesn't matter if you dollar cost average in the market. Also, you are not including dividends, which are part of the total return. My point is you can cherry pick dates, but sequence of return risk never works this way
Cool story Warren
I think a ton of people have felt that way for several years. In 2013 I remember reading a ton of people predicting crash, then in 2014, then in 2015, etc... There's never a time where investing feels like there aren't unique risks - they are always priced in. Let's say you get lucky and the market crashes 10% while you're holding cash. Do you invest then? What if it keeps going down 20% or 30%? Nobody knows what will happen next and there are always reasons to fear getting back in, all the while you are missing the expected returns of a market that typically goes up. That's why buying continuously and never selling until you retire is so effective for regular investors.
“Why are all of you dumping money into overvalued assets that are at an all time high and are propped up by speculation and not proven profitability?!” -> puts all assets into cash and crypto lol
You literally just handwaved a bunch of numbers to make your arithmetic work out. I’ve transacted more money in bitcoin than OP’s current net worth. Trust me if anyone can see the actual real world value of crypto I can. Edit: This dude edited his post from a 50% market drop to 30% lul
The price of bitcoin will be whatever the Chinese farmers decide it’ll be. I don’t give a shit about the price as long as fees are low enough and transactions are fast enough. As for what the theoretical true dollar value of btc should be, all you need to do is look left, look right, and see who’s actually transacting bitcoin for regular use and in what volume. After you do that and realize basically next to no one actually uses any significant amount of bitcoin except for a few drug dealers and poker players (which is still nothing), go ahead and look at the market cap of btc now which is currently half of Austria’s GDP. Hopefully you’ll come to realize the current dollar valuation of bitcoin is just a number in the clouds propped up by mostly whales in China with some sprinkling of degenerate hodlers. One can hope but I’m sure you won’t be swayed because moon lambos.
NW 110k?? do whatever with that pocket change.
When it drops, double down.
Yes I’m waiting for the drop. Deploying any capital into equities now would be beyond stupid