So Uber and Lyft are officially going IPO in 2019. Papers filed with SEC. Slack hired GS to get ready for IPO in second half of 2019. Not sure about AirBnB but peer pressure could make them IPO as well. Historically, whenever a windfall comes to employees - they buy....real estate. So are fears of a real-estate led recession unfounded? Would be interesting to know, also with Google campus getting green-lit by SJ City Council
I actually think these companies not going for ipo is better. You will see that all of these companies are either loss making machines or slightly profitable. As soon as they are public, pressure will come from public markets to cut costs, increase profits etc. they wont be able to do much and stock will start tanking. It will be worse for tech in general as sentiment will go lower. Not every company can be highly valued as amazon despite making shit profit, and also not many companies have the talent to turn around business as facebook did after IpO when there were questions about how they would monetize on mobile. Therefore, 2019 and 2020 could be harsh for tech in general. My 2 cents
100% agreed. Especially with recession arriving, the market will even be more harsher to these companies.
Agree with the opinion. Here’s a counter point: Apple makes a ton of profit but that hasn’t helped the stock price. Isn’t stock price an indicator of future value? The market has long tolerated cash burning growth companies. Why won’t bulls support these unicorns and their growth narratives. Do you believe market sentiment will change in 2019-20? Like realizing the party is over and trying to be the first one to leave?
What windfall? Employees took a risk trading labor for stock. It might pay out after the IPO lockup period is over, it might not.
They might buy real estate in SF, but if they made enough, some might decide to retire for a few years. Think a lot of techies are aware of the FIRE movement past years and understand that personal housing isn't necessary an investment. They might buy rentals someplace as well.
I think rising interest rate is hurrying these IPOs as companies had kept borrowing at low interest or VCs afford it. Now things have changed and they can’t keep borrowing the money from investors. IPOs are inevitable but it doesn’t mean they will do well. Past 10 years has been very different years due to low interest which was good for trying new things. Now it may be better to stay at a stable business.
I’m at uber i don’t plan to buy new real estate here. Why not invest in other things? I already own some real estate.
I hope all will be doing well and everyone happy