Analysis on the impact of HR1044/S386 to Rest of the World, and what you can do about it
Analysis of the impact of HR1044/S386 to Rest of the World, and what can you do about it?
The purpose of this thread is to discuss the impact of HR1044 on immigrants from the Rest of the World excluding India. This thread is not created for the purposes of discussing the merits of this bill.
What is HR1044:
Removes country of birth cap and defaults to sorting by First Come First Serve in the employment-based green card category.
How many Indians are stuck in the backlog?:
As per Kevin Yoder's speech in congress, as many as 1 million Indians are stuck in backlog Refer to the video below @1.26 (see citation below)
I pulled figures from USCIS site and backlog for India EB2 is 433k & EB3 is 115k.
I used the same figures that were quoted by CATO institute(see citation below).
Since it is possible to upgrade and downgrade from between EB2 and Eb3 I will bundle them together = 433 +115 = 548 k
The number 548k only includes the primary applicants from India and does not include family. I used a multiple of 2.1 to average out for primary petitioners, spouses, and dependents.
Total # of Indians in backlog = 548 *2.1 ~ 1.1 Million.
Total available visa under EBI and EB2 ~ 80k.
Under a FCFS system assuming the ROW is current only Indians would get green cards for
1.1 million/80k ~ 13 years.
This is consistent with what USCIS officials have said in the article below that ROW will have to wait for 10+ years.(see citation below) This is also consistent with Stuart Anderson's article that says “within 5 to 7 years after the transition period ends under the bill, the entire employment-based immigrant backlog that existed as of the date of enactment likely will have ended”
The transition period that Stuart is referring to is 3 years.
I have deliberately excluded EB1 because wait for EB1 is only 4 years even for India. as of July 20109
Impact to ROW:
According to my analysis, ROW would have to wait more than 10 years for the backlog to clear before anyone else can get a green card. Most people who apply for employment-based green cards are already here either as students or working under OPT, work Visas etc. This will have a huge impact to their plan if they intend to stay back in the united states.
Impact to China:
Currently, China is backlogged to 2016 in EB2 and 2017 in EB3. Post HR1044 their wait will increase by at least 5 years till the India backlog is cleared. This means if the current wait for Chinese Eb1 and Eb2 is 5 years, post HR1044 that wait will increase to 10+ years.
For Chinese EB5 investors, they are currently processing 2014 applications and no other country is backlogged, so I estimated post-HR1044 EB5 will become current.
Compared to status quo Chinese applicants will always see an increase in wait time regardless of what employment category they apply. Chinese Eb5 investors will become current if HR1044 becomes law.
What can you do it about it:
Call your senator, it is a simple and easy process. There is no wait, you can call your senator in your morning commute and leave a message that you don't support the bill. If the senators realize there is sufficient opposition they will debate the bill more and add amendments. Yes, anybody living in the country legally can call their respective senator.
Instructions are included below.
Reach US senators by calling 202-224-3121. Ask the operator to connect you to the individual office.
1) Video of Kevin Yoder
3) Uscis official confirms 10 + year wait
4) Stuart Anderson HR1044 article with calculations.
5) Visa bulletin