Another data point in real estate debate

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Oct 21, 2018 17 Comments

Here is a flyer from a realtor a couple of weeks ago.
Here is what OCR produced:

Sellers:

The Real Estate market goes in what is referred to as 7 year cycles. No one knows why It works this way, it just does. Let me explain. For the past 50 years we have seen a repeating trend. We will have a buyers market for approximately 5 to 7 years (2007 2014). During this 7 year petiod prices will stay flat. Then all of a sudden we will get a sellers market (2014 - 2018). During the sellers market the prlces will skyrocket. Usually 30 to 50%. These sellers markets will usually last 2 to 4 years.

Unlike the stock market or individual stocks, Real Estate can only go as high as people can afford. This is not rocket science. I like to joke that Apple has not really invented anything new for ten years but the stock keeps going up from the momentum. We do not have that luxury in Real Estate. In a normal sellers market. prices will go up just so high, and then stop. As you have noticed in the past month, this end of a sellers market is just as abrupt as the beginning.

At the beginning of this sellers market (Four years ago) I saw financial statements from the buyer with enough money to have 30% down, reserves to cover shortfalls in the appraisal, and still have stocks and cash left. Over the past three years however I have watched those reserves get smaller and smaller. This year have seen buyers get down to the bare bones, cashing In their 401k's to get the down payment. Buyers just cannot pay the high prices that we are expecting ftom our listings anymore.

Now add in interest rate increases and poof. Buyers just cannot close the deal and the sellers market ends.

Now What?

At the end of every sellers market we usually drop an average of 11%. We are starting to experience this now. Home prices have topped out. With a few exceptions we are not getting multiple offers anymore and are actually having to negotiate terms with the buyers. The buyers are still there. All of my listings are being tagged as hot homes in both Ziliow and Redfin. Buyers are wanting to buy but the buyers are afraid. The average buyer in Fremont has only seen one cycle; that cycle ended in a major crash. Buyers are afraid to be 'That guy' who bought at the peak and saw the market crash afterwatdx

Market crashes.

Market Crashes We have only experienced two major crashes in history. 1989 and 2006. Both times the banks gave phony loans which created a fake market. THIS IS NOT THE CASE NOW. Both crashes were caused because buyers had nothing invested in the home (No down payment), and were willing to walk away. This tme it is different. Buyers have had to put down a minimum of 20%. Have excellent credit and high incomes to get a loan. These new home owners are NOT going to walk away from their home because it comes down 10%. Therefore the market will definitely not crash.

Conclusion

If you are thinking of selling then you should consider it now, for obvious reasons. If you are thinking of buying then you should also consider it now, since interest rates are going up, and going up fast. Interest rates are everything!

Another data point in real estate debate

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TOP 17 Comments
  • Amazon what¿
    A realtor would say now is the time to buy or sell, because they make commission on both sides of the transaction.
    Oct 21, 2018 0
  • Cisco bill nye
    It's not the same as 2006, it's worse. People bought 1.5 m houses thinking their RSUs will always keep increasing(nonsense of course), stretching themselves to the brim.

    This crash is different from 2006 because this one will not hurt the poor who didn't buy houses in the first place. This will only hurt the suckers who bought homes in Fremont for 1.5m thinking they'll make that same TC for 30 years
    Oct 21, 2018 4
    • Amazon what¿
      If there is a crash, do you see this as primarily affecting the local Bay area or national?
      Oct 21, 2018
    • Cisco bill nye
      Crash in expensive places, slowdown in middle America
      Oct 21, 2018
    • New Hayran
      Another soul detached from microeconomics . Avg salary in 2006 was about one third of what its is currently. 60% of companies in the valley now didn’t existed in 2006.

      Dude wakup and smell the coffee. You were asleep while train left the station.
      Oct 21, 2018
    • Cisco bill nye
      ^ another fool detached from macroeconomics.

      Avg salaries are higher because of the credit boom over last 8 years at low interest rates. Anyone with a credit card goes to Amazon.com and buys whatever crap, disregarding the interest rate on it.

      That increases number of transactions on Amazon.com

      That raises Amazons stock

      That makes Amazon employees feel rich

      That makes those Amazon employees buy houses at high prices, because they can afford it today.

      With higher interest rates, the whole thing works exactly in reverse, just like clockwork. Higher interest rates
      More credit card debt
      Less spending on Amazon.com
      Amazon stock declines
      Lesser new purchasers of homes and more existing home owners defaulting on loans
      Thus, housing slowdown.

      Same applies to employees and customers of fb, Google and especially Apple.

      So open your eyes and understand that you boarded the wrong train. Our economy is heavily indebted and fragile af. If tiny 0.25 % interest rates are spooking markets and causing slowdown already, imagine what a 1-2% increase would do
      Oct 21, 2018
  • Facebook Bladyblahb
    You can easily get mortgages with 3.5% down today. The idea that everyone has 20% down now and that it's all different is just nonsense.
    Oct 21, 2018 0
  • Amazon what¿
    Tldr: Consider it could be the time to Buy or to Sell.🤔 And this is not a crash.

    Who is Timothy from Timothy's Market Update? How is this an update if it is not dated, it could have been written 6 months ago

    The assertion that it is not a crash because people now put down 20% down... I put down 5%🙄 on a conventional loan, was I the only one who put less than 20%?
    Oct 21, 2018 3
    • Amazon / Eng Wasdqwerty
      Yup that's not smart of u to get two loans.!!
      Oct 21, 2018
    • Amazon what¿
      It was one mortgage, no second
      Oct 21, 2018
    • Facebook 556
      Which bank lent you? Did you have excellent DTI if you don’t mind me asking?
      Oct 21, 2018
  • Oracle / Other alive!
    Timothy is sending this out after realizing that he can’t sell any of his properties:

    Below are some properties that have been on market for more than 2 months. He keeps delisting and relisting.

    https://www.redfin.com/CA/Fremont/48-Montalban-Dr-94536/home/1453610?from_mobile_app=true

    https://www.redfin.com/CA/Fremont/35931-Killorglin-Cmn-94536/home/1438310?from_mobile_app=true
    Oct 21, 2018 3
    • Oracle Hope9
      Genuine suggestion needed : If I want to buy my first single family home , is it recommended to buy now or wait( how long though?)
      Oct 21, 2018
    • Oracle / Other alive!
      Do you want to buy home OR do you need to buy home ?

      If you have family, kids , etc then no time is bad time. I would suggest to buy now as the market has already dipped 20% since the peak of May.

      If you think that you can live through the next year by renting, then wait it out until next fall. The sellers are still dreaming and some are holding out selling in the hope that they would be able to sell next spring. They will realize next summer that they were stupid and will sell at much lower prices.
      Oct 21, 2018
    • Oracle Hope9
      Thankyou @alive .,
      Oct 22, 2018
  • Microsoft QPrg55
    Yes. Buy or sell now. Now!!
    Oct 21, 2018 0
  • PayPal FHTH
    This guy owns fremonts real estate market
    Oct 21, 2018 0