Austin Housing Market - Buy or Hold?

Apple iInvest
May 19 25 Comments

I’m moving from Bay to Austin end of this month.

1. I’m on H1B with I-140 approved, but whole process from PERM will be reapplied post amendment. Haven’t had any issues with visa transfers, extensions in the past for my skill set / profile however anything is possible in future!

2. I have enough savings to buy a $400K home all cash. Not that I would but just to set some context on my financial health.

3. This will be for primary residence.

I’m hearing mixed opinions from colleagues and fends about upcoming recession and possible crash of housing market.

Question: Considering my visa status and current housing market, should I Go for purchase or Hold until market crashes?

12 yrs/320K (possible 10% reduction after move)

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TOP 25 Comments
  • EA Mk55hd
    Buy, all cash if you can (interests sucks). Also I bought my house while on H1B and now on GC so go for it!
    May 21 8
    • New mikito
      Why do you factor in mortgage interest tax deduction, but do not mention that past 9% returns are taxable? Also, projecting future performance based on past performance is definitely not arbitrage. It's a gamble
      May 21
    • RetailMeNot three mice
      “The worst 30 year return — using rolling monthly performance — occurred at the height of the market just before the Great Depression and stocks still returned almost 8% per year over the ensuing three decades.”

      If you think there’s something worse than the Great Depression on the horizon, you shouldn’t be invested in stocks or real estate. Feel free to park your cash under the mattress - let’s meet up in 30 years to compare outcomes.
      May 22
    • EA Mk55hd
      If you look at the amortization of your loan you will end up paying a lot of your interests up front (in the first 15 years) so no, you are not paying 4% unless you live on the same house untill you retire which is very unlikely
      May 22
    • New mikito
      It's not necessary for something super-bad to happen. It would be enough for all baby-boomers to rebalance their portfolios towards bonds over 20 years to feel enough pain
      May 22
    • New mikito
      Also, in addition to 30% taxes on your stocks' "9%" subtract 2.1% points property taxes OP will be paying on the full value of his home
      May 22
  • This comment was deleted by original commenter.

    • Apple iInvest
      OP
      Winter is definitely coming... but will it be this season or 8 seasons later, is the question.
      May 20
    • Google Mr. Glass
      Regardless, the undead will be defeated in a single fight. So chill and buy
      May 20
  • Tree.com vDYq17
    You can't time the market. If it's for primary residence, just buy it but leverage the low interest rate and take a loan instead
    May 20 2
    • Apple iInvest
      OP
      Thanks. Can I refinance later if the interest rate goes down when recession kicks in?
      May 20
    • Tree.com vDYq17
      Sure you can. But look at historical rates, it's hardly been this low.
      May 21
  • Oracle / Eng sweEng
    Buy near Domain and the new apple campus. Unless there is a total tech wipe out i don't see Austin market going down anytime soon. Worst case you might see 5 or 10% drop when recession hits, but ur quality of life would be far far better living in a home.
    May 23 0
  • New / Eng jo2305
    Buy. Austin housing market is going crazy
    May 20 5
    • Apple iInvest
      OP
      Thanks. Have you invested already or looking for investment opportunities in Austin housing market?
      May 20
    • New / Eng jo2305
      I live in Austin but still rent until I can afford a down payment on a house. Austin is growing like crazy. Apple is building a new campus for 5k+ employees, Google is leasing (and renovating) an entire skyscraper in downtown, Oracle just finished their new campus, and Amazon is expanding here too.
      May 20
    • Apple iInvest
      OP
      Ok so your point being, even recession hits the Austin market wouldn’t be much impacted or will get back quicker?
      May 20
    • New / Eng jo2305
      Yes. Austin and Houston weren't really impacted in 2008.
      May 20
    • Apple iInvest
      OP
      Ok thanks!
      May 20
  • Apple FWB
    The comments are misleading - Is it a Go OR Hold in Austin market? Mortgaging vs paying most in cash is a different topic isn’t?
    May 22 1
    • EA Mk55hd
      True. I think is a GO
      May 22
  • Apple iTrade
    This is a great point too. We usually forget Uncle Sam when estimating market returns
    May 21 0
  • Nvidia dynosight
    #hodlgang, but always buy.
    May 20 0