I think to rephrase what I said before. You don't have to invest based on p/e or ev/ebitda or p/fcf or whatever it is. You could do it off of p/revenue or p/click or heck, just say I go with gut instinct cause I really believe in the mgmt team.
But when you do that, understand that it's similar to you making a venture investment. It's high risk, but returns are also very high if it pans out well. So only invest what you're willing to lose and make concentrated bets in things that you have an information advantage in. For example, if you're a network engineer, you prob know of all the cdns out there, who's the player with the most potential (imo fsly), and then if you want to, you can take a stance on that. But be prepared to lose that money cause risks are amplified when valuation is not grounded in profit in the next 5 years
What truisms? Time in Market? It’s just historical performance. Which of course yes you could say that doesn’t determine future returns but it comes down to whether you think the economy will continue to grow, and whether you think that assets(generally. Not one specific asset) will continue to have value in the future (I.e. as long as we aren’t becoming communist).
That would actually prove the saying is true. Time in market is more valuable than timing the market. If you purchased at the peak of 2008 and you held until now, while continuing to invest along the way, you’d be very far ahead and doing better than someone who started in say 2010 and continued to purchase. Sure maybe somebody held onto their cash and purchased PERFECTLY at the bottom end but it’s impossible to time the market like that. There’s always risk with everything but over longer and longer periods of time the risk is far below the potential returns.
AMZN has there hand in a lot of markets that could expand rapidly. The pill pack acquisition among others could mean huge upside. The current opioid lawsuits against major pharma companies is opening the door for amazon to capture opportunity with there distribution channels
OP you are completely living in a different world. Google tried releasing their products and failed. It’s not like they didn’t try. Amazon has way more upside than Google because they are actually capturing markets while Google kept saying we will capture markets.
Microsoft and Amazon are implementing things they say and are capturing those markets. Google isn’t. Google has their revenue from their ads and is growing in that vertical. But definitely not other verticals.
AMD is going strong now, but it (along with Intel and NVidia) is going to lose the war against ARM SoCs and RISC-V based discrete video cards. See the latest Surface Pro X announcement, also I am betting that next year Apple will come out with an ARM-based Macbook. ARM-based PCs will dominate except the high-end gaming PC market, which will slowly be killed off by consoles, Stadia (or whoever wins the cloud gaming market). Thanks to the trade war, the Chinese will develop alternatives in a few years to avoid the Intel / AMD / Qualcomm / ARM tax.
Uber. Given the spate of layoffs and the fact that they're probably going to meet their earnings target this quarter (due to the layoffs and cost cutting measures), Uber might be a good buy. If anyone disagrees, I'd love to hear why.
Uber needs to monetize Uber eats and Uber trucking. They also need to raise rates for drivers. Stop wasting time recruiting new drivers. And stop giving Dara so much money. Super long term, the ownership in other Didi and some ride share business in Brazil should pay off in a few years.
Softbank. Undervalued by 2x (based on the net value of their holdings). Wework and uber losses overly punished the stock and is a small percentage of their profile. Softbank is the Berkshire Hathaway of tech. Think long term fundamentals.