Evaluating a series B startup offer.
Company is offering (say) 10K ISOs at a strike price of $1. They say preferred shares were valued at $3 at the last round, and they expect to exit at a 20X valuation increase, (with 2-3X potential upside on top of the 20X) by the time they IPO (in ~4yrs). Also saying that preferred shares have only 1X preference and no double dip participation, and they expect to raise 2 more rounds prior to IPO. However, they will not tell me the number of outstanding shares to be able to calculate my "ownership". Revenue wise, they will need to grow at least 20X to justify the 10B IPO valuation they are expecting (valuation will still be a very high revenue multiple). Alternative is public co with RSU value today approaching the same $ value as the ISOs would be at the targeted IPO valuation of of the startup.
Am I crazy to even consider this? Thoughts?