Expecting the stock market to crash soon?
There seems to be lots of consensus that we're about due for a crash. Is it worth moving some funds out of the market and into something more stable for the short term?
I've got most of my savings in Vanguard's Retirement 2050 fund, and while it's done well (~15% per year) the last couple of years, it's 90% stocks, and the risk level according to Vanguard is 4 out of 5.
Is it worth moving to a less risky (2 or 3 out of 5) fund for the next year or two and then moving back into an aggressive 4 or 5 out of 5 fund after the market crashes a good bit?
Risk is the market won't crash immediately and I'll lose out on some big (15%) gains during that time. But I should still have moderate (5%) gains during that time. Benefit is if the market does crash, I won't lose nearly as much, and I can put most of it back into stocks and ride the wave back up.
Is this naive? I remember my portfolio taking a hit during the 2008 recession and it took a couple years to get back to even. Would be nice to avoid the dip. Seems extremely unlikely for the market to rise indefinitely without any correction.