For those of you in the “this time it’s different” camp.Dec 6, 2018
Here’s an article from Dec 20 2007. It could have been written today. We all know what happened in 2008. What about 2019?
- There is a 100% chance there will be a recession in the future. The trick is the timing, magnitude, and how to profit from it. Ideas? Otherwise, this is just another dumb f’ing post.
- Except all these recession and doom and gloom posts popping up like this thread implies everyone knows what is going to happen next and a recession is impending because people are no longer going to experience 20% growth in stocks yoy.
Apparently no one here has experienced a normal economy where stocks grow 5% yoy and get this... It wasn't a recession.
- Clouding your economic predictions with politics and a sample size of 1 (2008 financial crisis). Thank you all for funding my portfolio of longs and shorts.
If you want to look for signs of a repeat of 2008 how many people are underwater on their mortgage and over leveraged?
- Yeah, the small part that’s missing this time is the systematic & near complete failure of the entire financial system... other than that, they’re pretty much the same...
- Love it. Under housing:
"We believe the housing shock is about half over" said .. Lehman Brothers economist.
It had barely begun!! I know, it's like dancing on a corpse, but the takeaway is, if stocks were gonna drop by 50% from here in next 6 months, no "respected person" will be telling you that.
- Cruise Automation moccaSort of. The market downturn forced many company layoffs. There are many Americans living paycheck to paycheck, others have only a few months to live off of savings. So when these people are laid off, they withdraw from savings and retirement accounts to make ends meet.
There's also the home owners who many became underwater on their loans vs house value.
Published in August and spot on
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