Money

For those of you in the “this time it’s different” camp.

Citibank / Finance$$>RSU
Dec 6

Here’s an article from Dec 20 2007. It could have been written today. We all know what happened in 2008. What about 2019?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/7-economic-warning-signs-for-2008

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  • Google / Eng
    prodaccess

    GoogleEng

    BIO
    Top Contributor or GTFO
    prodaccessmore
    Thank you, Donald Trump.
    Dec 68
    • Citibank / Finance$$>RSU
      OP
      More like thank you Jerome Powell. Trump tax cuts actually added fuel to the market.
      Dec 6
    • Google / Eng
      prodaccess

      GoogleEng

      BIO
      Top Contributor or GTFO
      prodaccessmore
      Does it cover the trade war fuckery?
      Dec 6
    • Citibank / Finance$$>RSU
      OP
      The Chinese know they’ve been fucking around too long and will make a deal. I’ll give trump credit for that. It will be a positive long term.
      Dec 6
    • Intel Roggik
      Lol, Donald Trump’s fault. Prob more Google, Facebook, etc bringing on regulation that will have a more dramatic negative economic impact. Way to go prodaccess.
      Dec 6
    • TripAdvisor owlwise
      Jerome Powell was appointed by Donald Trump you idiot.
      Dec 6
    • Citibank / Finance$$>RSU
      OP
      And how is Donald trump reacting to what Jerome Powell is doing. I don’t think that was his intention when he nominated him. Idiot.
      Dec 6
    • TripAdvisor owlwise
      Then he should have done his research before appointing him. Makes DTrump a dumbass of the first degree. And he still has the power to fire him but isn't. So stop whining about poor helpless orange baby.
      Dec 6
    • Intel Roggik
      You guys give the government too much credit. Outside of absorbing useful capital to give it to unproductive people, it doesn’t do all that much.
      Dec 6
  • Intel Roggik
    There is a 100% chance there will be a recession in the future. The trick is the timing, magnitude, and how to profit from it. Ideas? Otherwise, this is just another dumb f’ing post.
    Dec 64
    • Facebook Yuge
      Yeah simple stay short SPX or QQQ for next 6 months.
      Dec 6
    • Microsoft twkh55
      That's like saying the sky is blue. A recession could happen tomorrow and it could happen in 2 years or in 5 years.
      Dec 6
    • Facebook Yuge
      Of course no one will know with certainty. No risk free return. Everyone makes their own calls.
      Dec 6
    • Microsoft twkh55
      Except all these recession and doom and gloom posts popping up like this thread implies everyone knows what is going to happen next and a recession is impending because people are no longer going to experience 20% growth in stocks yoy.

      Apparently no one here has experienced a normal economy where stocks grow 5% yoy and get this... It wasn't a recession.
      Dec 6
  • Intuit Uz1h6d
    I’m waiting for the 2/10 year yield inversion
    Dec 66
    • Intel Roggik
      Predicts 9 out of every 7 recessions. Tough part is we’ve never had to unwind quantitative easing, which throws the old rules out the window.
      Dec 6
    • Intuit Uz1h6d
      QE was basically the US propping up home values. If we ever choose to really unwind QE, we might have a better sense of what the market thinks home prices should be.
      Dec 6
    • Citibank / Finance$$>RSU
      OP
      QE unwind started October 2017.
      Dec 6
    • Intuit Uz1h6d
      It barely happened. Very little assets have moved.
      Dec 6
    • Citibank / Finance$$>RSU
      OP
      Yeah, and look at what’s happening already. It’s in full swing now.
      Dec 6
    • Intuit Uz1h6d
      Hard to say if the small bit of unwinding that has occurred is responsible for the bulk of the market pullback.
      Dec 6
  • Microsoft twkh55
    Clouding your economic predictions with politics and a sample size of 1 (2008 financial crisis). Thank you all for funding my portfolio of longs and shorts.

    If you want to look for signs of a repeat of 2008 how many people are underwater on their mortgage and over leveraged?
    Dec 62
    • Citibank / Finance$$>RSU
      OP
      The article mentions 7 signs and they’re relatively universal. That’s the point of the post/article.
      Dec 6
    • Microsoft 4655434b
      More importantly, how many banks & investment firms are over leveraged & all insured by a single insurer that would not be able to cover the swaps...
      Dec 6
  • Microsoft 4655434b
    Yeah, the small part that’s missing this time is the systematic & near complete failure of the entire financial system... other than that, they’re pretty much the same...
    Dec 62
    • Verizon PinkyBrain
      Ah, I’d say just about identical then. Very good sir.
      Dec 6
    • Apple / Engifwe
      Deutsche Bank?
      Dec 6
  • Facebook Yuge
    Love it. Under housing:
    "We believe the housing shock is about half over" said .. Lehman Brothers economist.

    It had barely begun!! I know, it's like dancing on a corpse, but the takeaway is, if stocks were gonna drop by 50% from here in next 6 months, no "respected person" will be telling you that.
    Dec 63
    • Intel Roggik
      Housing is local and long-term. With trillions in wealth creation in the Bay and Seattle, why would those go down over the long term? Wives still want to own houses.
      Dec 6
    • Facebook Yuge
      @Roggik you misunderstand. I am not saying housing will be down 50% this time. But it drop by that much in most of the country in 2008 after this article (and countless others like it) was published.
      Dec 6
    • Microsoft twkh55
      Due to a lending crisis in 2008, where is the lending crisis here?
      Dec 6
  • Airbnb jim.hodlen
    did people lose their savings in 2008?
    Dec 63
    • Citibank / Finance$$>RSU
      OP
      No. Just their PlayStation
      Dec 6
    • Cruise Automation mocca
      Sort of. The market downturn forced many company layoffs. There are many Americans living paycheck to paycheck, others have only a few months to live off of savings. So when these people are laid off, they withdraw from savings and retirement accounts to make ends meet.

      There's also the home owners who many became underwater on their loans vs house value.
      Dec 6
    • Cloudera 🐝➕🌲
      Don’t forget what happened to people’s 401(k) accounts when the market crashed. They got cut in half and many people then went into cash out of fear of an even worse depression around the corner. So yeah, it’s safe to say many people lost their savings.
      Dec 6
  • Northrop Grumman iCallBS
    Can you reference a paper from 2018 so we can compare
    Dec 62
  • Flagged by the community.

    • Microsoft Dial_Me_i
      We can't affect anything, so doesn't matter.
      Dec 6
  • One last rally and then 🐻🐻🐻
    Dec 60
  • New 0hedge
    Long dollar store short costco
    Dec 60
  • New 0hedge
    GE puts
    Dec 60
  • New 0hedge
    All in on put options.....already late in some sectors like home builders who are down 40%
    Dec 60

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