Four Kites or Project 44 are the disruptors likely to succeed in this space, both taking a data-based approach to a domain with significant inefficiencies. The dryvan truckload market alone is enourmous and large opportunities to disrupt it abound. Data capture will be key - grabbing operational (on-time shipping, detention, etc) and transactional (price) data that can be monetized will be how these firms will create value. There are also significant network effects here so it's likely the player to capture marketshare first wins. As for autonomous trucking I'm not sure who will win but I expect it will be someone other than Uber or Convoy, or even many firms, perhaps even a collaboration between an AI company and a truck manufacturer. There are no network effects here so there are likely to be many players.
Convoy
Skeptical of Convoy’s rapid growth. Not saying it isn’t legit, but for anyone enamored with their funding numbers and headcount growth, probably worth a closer look. Folks there I’ve talked to don’t think autonomous trucks will be a thing for a long time and while I’m inclined to agree, what if that actually comes to pass?
Are they going for autonomous trucks? I thought they were just gonna be the uber of trucking?
I think their plan is to be Uber of trucking but they pay no attention to autonomous driving. If autonomous trucks become a thing, I don’t know how that affects Convoy. Maybe it’s not a problem. I was just surprised that they don’t think it’ll become a thing.
Flexport will.
Why are you even comparing uber freight to convoy? Uber abandoned any autonomous truck efforts. To my knowledge the closest thing to freight is flexport and even there, there are significant differences
They are very similar. Do a little research.
Uber is still building out their brokerage capability but everyone and their brother is in this space (it must have the lowest cost of entry of just about any business this side of a lemonade stand). Theyre not going to be the first to market with fully autonomous trucks.
Everybody thinks they can do logistics better than how logistics have been done. And isn’t Amazon gonna be a major player in this? Amazon hires tons of people from US Army largely because of the logistics expertise.
Clearly there is a lot of opportunity to do logistics better - there are far too many phone calls, disconnections of information, and paperwork involved in moving freight (walk into any freight brokerage and you'll find a lot of people on the shipper-side and carrier-side spending much of their day on the phone buying and selling capacity). Amazon is a major player moving their freight and some freight for others but hasn't made a move to become a major player for 3rd parties. It remains to be seen when/if they'll attack this market.
Not sure if Amazon will choose to enter as bezos had invested in convoy
J.B. Hunt FTW
Hoo boy JB’s tech/engineering is a joke