What's the rejection rate for PM roles once the packet makes it through to the hiring committee?
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Depends on team and level. Probably consistent with rest of Goog which varies between 15-40% acceptance rate at HC phase. Good luck!
Does the recruiter's confidence in the strength of the package mean anything at that stage? He said the feedback was strong. Do recruiters have a say in the hiring decision?
Recruiters are the ones who present candidate packets to HC. Their opinion doesn’t influence a decision but they can help by introducing candidates packet to more managers/teams if they feel a stronger case for hire needs to be made. It’s their confidence and subsequent effort to get you more visibility that can help with hire but they don’t get a vote.