H1-b Transfer - LCA Odds of Denial

New / Eng
deeprocker

New Eng

BIO
BS in Robotics Eng (US), MS in Data Science (US Ivy League)
deeprockermore
Feb 27 60 Comments

UPDATE: Guys I would like to apologize for the misinformation I provided yesterday. It was not intentional, the data (link provided below) is there referred to as H1b program data and description field for Case Status is given as "Status associated with the last significant event or decision. Valid values include “Certified,” “Certified-Withdrawn,” Denied,” and “Withdrawn”." Those statuses and cases I checked also synced with H1b websites such as :

-https://h1bdata.info

So I presumed that the dataset case statuses are for H1b. Based on the numerous feedback I received in the comments, I am convinced that this is only for the LCA stage of H1b process, not the final H1b. I contacted USCIS for the dataset, if they provide one, I will create another detailed post. (I have been researching since yesterday to find the dataset). So far I only found statistics by top 30 employers in the US which I will post in another thread.

---------------------------
Hi Guys,

I have been reading lots of posts recommending not to join on receipt. BAL lawyers (for Google) are giving me a 6-10 month timeline for approval. They don't expect another USCIS announcement for PP soon (by soon I mean ~2-3 weeks, this is the difference between 1st announcement on Jan 25 and 2nd on Feb 15) for apps filed after Dec 21st. They speculate that USCIS to wait until after cap season to fully reinstall PP but again no guarantee. So the approval process is really too long.

So, I downloaded the public data from

https://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/performancedata.cfm

I pulled some helpful statistics for those who are considering to join on the receipt. [Please don't be confused by USCIS's quarterly report (attached, that 27% denied category includes withdrawals), actual denial rate is much much lower]

For an H1b visa transfer (not new or amendment), for a full-time role, for an employer headquartered in the US (so excluding some of these Indian Consulting Firms), the odds of denial and sample size in 2018:

- Total: 1.17% - 110,863
- Facebook: 0.67% - 1,039
- Apple: 0.72% - 975
- Amazon: 0.47%- 1,905
- Netflix: 0% - 141
- Google: 0.77% - 1,431
- Microsoft: 0% - 1,287
- Airbnb: 0% - 109
- Uber: 0% - 353
- Lyft: 0.58% - 171
- Oracle: 0.47% - 632
- LinkedIn: 0.34% - 298
- Square: 0% - 46
- Stripe: 0% - 21
- Vmware: 0% - 136
- Doordash: 0% - 29
- Salesforce: 1.42% - 353
- Postmates: 0% - 13

- Job Title "software engineer": 0.85% - 14,999
- Job Title "engineering manager": 2.23% - 224
- Job Title "analyst": 1.03% - 14,845
- Job Title "product manager": 1.83% - 984
- Job Title "program manager": 1.20% - 832
- Job Title "consultant": 0.75% - 9,911
- Job Title "developer": 0.92% - 17,188
- Job Title "data scientist": 0.90% - 781

Note: Job title rates are not based on exact match, if the title contains those strings, it 'll be counted (e.g software engineer, logistics will be counted).

I hope this info helps for those who are still looking for a way out :)

PM me for the code for those who want to do their own ad-hoc analysis.

H1-b Transfer - LCA Odds of Denial

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TOP 60 Comments
  • McKinsey 131111
    Did you use the LCA H1B data and calculate #Certifications to total filings excluding withdrawn application? If so, this data is invalid. USCIS processes approval/denial for H1B while Labor department certifies or denies LCA. We won't get H1B approval odds from LCA data
    If you were able to correlate LCA filings for a year vs H1B approvals from USCIS, can you please share the source for H1B data? Thanks!
    Feb 27 3
    • New / Eng
      deeprocker

      New Eng

      BIO
      BS in Robotics Eng (US), MS in Data Science (US Ivy League)
      deeprockermore
      OP
      Thank you for pointing out the mistake
      Feb 28
    • McKinsey 131111
      Thanks for clarifying! The 2018 top 30 company data shared by USCIS can be helpful here. You will see that approval odds are pretty much as high as what you pointed out for tech companies. However, it would have been interesting to see approval odds by job role.
      For Tech - New applications had 1.7% rejections in 2018 and 1.5% of Continuing applications were rejected
      v/s for Consulting - 37.6% of new applications and 20.6% of continuing applications were rejected
      Google, Facebook had best odds with <1% applications rejected in 2018; Apple, MSFT and Amazon were around ~1.5% and Cisco at 2.1%
      Feb 28
    • New / Eng
      deeprocker

      New Eng

      BIO
      BS in Robotics Eng (US), MS in Data Science (US Ivy League)
      deeprockermore
      OP
      Yes i actually shared that top 30 data in another post, did not want to crowd this one. Meanwhile i requested raw data from USCIS hopefully they ll provide that
      Feb 28
  • Intel kryptonite
    OP, i think the data you are using is basically extracted from icert portal? I think that data only tells about lca is certified or denied right?

    Does the lca status also change to denied when h1b is denied?

    I was reading H-1B_FY19_Record_Layout file for the meaning of columns and i did see case status tells about the last significant event or decision.
    Feb 28 2
    • New / Eng
      deeprocker

      New Eng

      BIO
      BS in Robotics Eng (US), MS in Data Science (US Ivy League)
      deeprockermore
      OP
      I am kinda frustrated with the ambiguity around this. I saw the exact same thing before this analysis - case status says the last significant event so I presumed (even though it is LCA data but labeled as H1b data) that it was H1b decision. Websites such as https://h1bdata.info and http://www.myvisajobs.com/Reports/2019-H1B-Visa-Category.aspx?T=ST both use the same language/visa status when referring to H1b (4 main categories: certified, certified-withdrawn,withdrawn and denied). So I am going to label this post as LCA decision I guess, any ideas?
      Feb 28
    • Lumeris Squee20
      Deeprocker - Agreed! That helps with the ambiguity! I'm sure the h1b status numbers are much more dire.
      Feb 28
  • Microsoft naaam
    Very good analysis sir. I think all said, for legit jobs in respectable companies, the process may be slow but still not bad. The ones feeling heat are the bodyshop companies.
    Feb 27 0
  • New conga
    Amazing! Thanks for this info deeprocker 🙌
    Feb 27 0
  • Apple zeo meo
    What do you think of my case?
    Bachelors in electronics - india
    MS in CS from USA
    Transferring to one of the other FAANG's

    current role same as new role: Sr. Software Engg

    Do anyone of you think I should worry?
    Feb 27 4
    • New / Mgmt
      deeprocker

      New Mgmt

      BIO
      BS in Robotics Eng (US), MS in Data Science (US Ivy League)
      deeprockermore
      OP
      Noone can guarantee you that you won't get a denial, especially after I saw that post about the guy who got a denial for an eng manager position (moving from FB to Uber) and he had an MS in CS from Stanford. But, the goal of this post was to show that it is not that terrible as it is thought in most Blind posts. I would still talk to your hiring manager and recruiter to see if there is a backup option in case of denial (like sending you to Canada, UK, etc while refiling/appealing) - which is what I did - still waiting for an answer. Does anyone know Google's policy on this?
      Feb 27
    • Apple Faangonly
      thanks for the insight!
      Feb 27
    • Yelp Rsqx75
      @deeprocker Your numbers above have 0% rejections for Uber but someone on blind posted about a transfer rejection with Uber?
      Feb 28
    • Yelp Rsqx75
      I guess it was for 2019?
      Feb 28
  • So no one is denied H1 while transferring to Netflix?
    Feb 27 3
    • New / Mgmt
      deeprocker

      New Mgmt

      BIO
      BS in Robotics Eng (US), MS in Data Science (US Ivy League)
      deeprockermore
      OP
      That is correct, same with Microsoft. Netflix has 1 denial which was an amended h1b petition. Microsoft has 0 denials for all types of H1b petitions (5555 certified and 1 withdrawn)
      Feb 27
    • Facebook tGTv63
      Wait weren't there a few people from Microsoft complaining on blind being denied h1?
      Feb 27
    • New / Eng
      deeprocker

      New Eng

      BIO
      BS in Robotics Eng (US), MS in Data Science (US Ivy League)
      deeprockermore
      OP
      I didn't see anyone saying they are denied, the posts from Mcrsft guys with "h1b denial" are either asking for risks or talking about their friend or saying they are moving from Mcrsft to XX company etc.
      Feb 27
  • Cerner 10 x Eng?
    Thanks 🙏 a lot for doing the hard work and sharing the data for community.

    I started a thread with a question to join on receipt and find your thread/analysis very helpful.

    Can you share your code (if any) how you draw those metrics from data, so I can do similar stuff on my end, and have peace in my mind.
    Feb 27 1
    • New / Mgmt
      deeprocker

      New Mgmt

      BIO
      BS in Robotics Eng (US), MS in Data Science (US Ivy League)
      deeprockermore
      OP
      will PM you the code
      Feb 27
  • Microsoft TonyShark
    I want to make you the top contributor .. because you are
    Feb 28 0
  • Yahoo / Eng
    Yahoo❗

    Yahoo Eng

    PRE
    Yahoo
    Yahoo❗more
    OP, you are amazing!
    Feb 27 0
  • Did similar research. Joined with receipt on October. Got approval in ~3 months
    Feb 27 4
    • New oAbt87
      Good, since premium processing wasn’t opened priority would be given for regular filings , now since premium is partially opened , they might delay petitions filed after December 22 nd ?
      Feb 27
    • But it is still a queue. U will see slight delay if u filed before December. I think they just want to milk as much money
      Feb 27
    • New oAbt87
      Mine is filed on Feb fist week . Any predictions when it gets to their queue ?
      Feb 27
    • No one can predict anything when premium is suspended. We can only tell u how our process went and rest is up to USCIS
      Feb 28
  • Lumeris Squee20
    Hi OP, Did you use the quarterly files for the Q4 2018? The one under the disclosure data tab labelled H-1B_FY2019? I ask because I had a denial In Nov 2018 and that company is not even showing up on this list. It's an American company even. The data just seems suspect with that omission.
    Feb 28 3
    • Microsoft / Eng h1bDilemma
      There is a separate file for FY 2018 . Try this one out and may be that contains the information you are looking for https://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/PerformanceData/2018/H-1B_Disclosure_Data_FY2018_EOY.xlsx
      Feb 28
    • Lumeris Squee20
      Thanks for pointing that out. I took a look at the file. I can now find my employer but it says 'Certified' since it only references the LCA case status. I don't think this has any h1b petition statuses. Could someone confirm whether there is another file or another column to marry this up to to get petition status?
      Feb 28
    • Microsoft / Eng h1bDilemma
      I think you are right, after reading this line in the page "Select data fields for each case record are extracted from foreign labor certification application tables within OFLC case management systems "
      Feb 28
  • Microsoft mamusana
    OP can you share the stats from unicorns like Airbnb, Uber and Lyft ?
    Feb 27 3
    • New / Eng
      deeprocker

      New Eng

      BIO
      BS in Robotics Eng (US), MS in Data Science (US Ivy League)
      deeprockermore
      OP
      added
      Feb 27
    • Microsoft mamusana
      Thanks !
      Feb 27
    • Google bigjon
      Can you add Square and Stripe?
      Feb 27
  • Walmart.com QTFP86
    Thanks for the hard work you did but honestly this is not accurate based on how you rationalize the data. This is very skewed representation.
    Feb 27 3
    • New / Mgmt
      deeprocker

      New Mgmt

      BIO
      BS in Robotics Eng (US), MS in Data Science (US Ivy League)
      deeprockermore
      OP
      Sure, I don't claim to be expert in this field but I welcome any improvement/suggestions. What do you think is skewed and how can I reduce that bias?
      Feb 27
    • Walmart.com QTFP86
      Job Title convergence/mapping, withdrawal share assumptions for starters...
      Feb 27
    • New / Eng
      deeprocker

      New Eng

      BIO
      BS in Robotics Eng (US), MS in Data Science (US Ivy League)
      deeprockermore
      OP
      All withdrawals are excluded from this analysis bcause its nothing to do with uscis. Job titles are pretty much standard when you do string search, there are variations betweem job titles for sure, thats why i included job title specific data as well. Best way to see this is by company by job title but it is not appropriate for a posting
      Feb 27
  • Microsoft WhereTo?
    Can you add for Oracle( OCI) too? Or tell us how do you do that? Thanks!
    Feb 27 1
    • New / Eng
      deeprocker

      New Eng

      BIO
      BS in Robotics Eng (US), MS in Data Science (US Ivy League)
      deeprockermore
      OP
      they don't report separately for OCI, so I just added the Oracle overall data
      Feb 27
  • Amazon vwv
    The risk really comes in very specific cases. The biggest is specialty occupation which attracts an RFE if there is any discrepancy between your degree and the one listed in the job posting.

    If the job says CS degree and your have exactly that it's very low risk. If on the other hand you have an EE degree and are having to make a degree equivalent claim it's more risk.

    Non tech roles are often risky because sometimes they are fuzzy about what degree is actually required and may list a number or just say any degree, which creates problems.

    But if it's software developer at a well known company and you have a CS degree from a well known school you really are pretty safe.
    Feb 27 1
    • New / Mgmt
      deeprocker

      New Mgmt

      BIO
      BS in Robotics Eng (US), MS in Data Science (US Ivy League)
      deeprockermore
      OP
      True, outcome is definitely case by case. I was just trying to see some numbers to give me some direction.
      Feb 27
  • Intel kryptonite
    OP, Thanks for sharing this
    Feb 27 0
  • Microsoft GonnaMove
    Thanks a lot op! I was in a big dilemma about transferring to Google on the receipt
    Feb 27 3
    • New / Mgmt
      deeprocker

      New Mgmt

      BIO
      BS in Robotics Eng (US), MS in Data Science (US Ivy League)
      deeprockermore
      OP
      I reached out to recruiter and hiring manager - still waiting for an answer (trying to see if I can work from Canada/UK if denied) - I suspect the answer is team specific.
      Feb 27
    • Microsoft GonnaMove
      Are you planning to go ahead with the receipt?
      Feb 27
    • New / Eng
      deeprocker

      New Eng

      BIO
      BS in Robotics Eng (US), MS in Data Science (US Ivy League)
      deeprockermore
      OP
      I got the receipt apparently on 19th (1 day later) but BAL updated my status today. I need to see what is the backup plan first
      Feb 27
  • Microsoft
    jdogz

    Microsoft

    PRE
    Google
    jdogzmore
    Why no Microsoft 😪
    Feb 27 3
    • New / Mgmt
      deeprocker

      New Mgmt

      BIO
      BS in Robotics Eng (US), MS in Data Science (US Ivy League)
      deeprockermore
      OP
      sorry, just added, I still don't know why Microsoft is not part of FAANG :)
      Feb 27
    • eBay / Design Brocolli
      Because they can't beat FANG offer
      Feb 27
    • Microsoft
      jdogz

      Microsoft

      PRE
      Google
      jdogzmore
      Thanks and wow considering the fact that we move a lot of ppl it's good to see that 0% 😌
      Feb 27
  • Tesla shite
    Can you do intel?
    May 16 0
  • Cerner 10 x Eng?
    Can you please add data for Mastercard
    Feb 28 0
  • Microsoft / Eng h1bDilemma
    This is an awesome find.
    Feb 27 0
  • Cisco / Product XkSQ00
    This is awesome! Thanks a lot for this analysis and sharing with us. pls add LinkedIn as well if you can. Thanks!
    Feb 27 0
  • Google udVT15
    Wow, thanks for taking the time to analyze this! Really gives me peace of mind.
    Feb 27 0
  • Fortinet / Eng
    jd5743

    Fortinet Eng

    PRE
    Fortinet
    jd5743more
    Thanks a lot for your stats. It helps a lot as I am waiting for transfer and might have to join on receipt.

    Can you add VMWARE in your stats or possibly share your code so I can add it myself?
    Feb 27 0
  • Cisco / Eng
    tingtongcs

    Cisco Eng

    PRE
    Copart
    tingtongcsmore
    Can you add for doordash, salesforce, postmates thanks. great research btw
    Feb 27 0
  • Microsoft pulkitraj
    Rfe is the problem
    Feb 27 0

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