Has the Bay Area recession arrived?

Citibank oTcY13
Feb 11, 2018 18 Comments

On the surface everything seems great. Housing prices continue to rise, despite the recent correction the stock market is incredible, best of this that and the other since God knows when. But just beneath the surface things don’t seem to be going as well in the Bay Area. The job growth rate has been slowing for many months and finally went negative in October. Lots of jobs yet a lot of people I know feel unsettled. Perhaps I’m being paranoid, but things haven’t felt this unstable since just before the financial crisis in ‘08. Perhaps it’s industry specific but I keep hearing the same sentiments from people from many parts of the employment spectrum. I’m hoping it’s nothing more than paranoia on my part. Any thoughts?

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TOP 18 Comments
  • Google zkdc
    Tech folks still have so much cash just sitting around. They will either (1) view this is as an opportunity for house prices to come down in a year, given so much of buying power is in stock for big company people, creating a rise in optimism and feelings of stability to be exploiited in other sectors or (2) if house prices don't come down, forego buying altogether for the foreseeable future and content themselves with dipping into that down payment surplus for fun spending and immediate quality of life improvements. Folks that just bought a house and lost stock compensation surpluses can likely still dip into savings for consumer spending for the time being.

    However, we may see "excess luxury" products go away - the ones where there was a consensus they were guilty, unnecessary pleasures. This may impact the Bay Area economy, but fortunately, this list isn't too long: 3 separate $15/month online news subscriptions, $12/month Spotify subscriptions, $1800 new OLED TV, 2 5 min, $14 Ubers to your shuttle stop per day, 4x/week, having Blue Apron feed your family for $300, getting Peloton to motivate you to exercise for $2000 and $50/month, pay $35/day, 3x/week for SoulCycle class, followed by a $9 fitness smoothie that neutralizes your caloric burn, regular $30/pp brunches and breakfasts, regular $50 happy hours, $3500/month studios in luxury apartment communities, $2000/person seasonal Tahoe cabin rentals and $800 season passes, 5 cross-country weekend trips to visit friends, $1500/person wedding shower/bachelor/ette parties, $5000 non-additive UX or PM classes, $1500/person business class upgrades on personal trips to SE Asia, $500 GoPro packages, $2500 road bikes, $50 cooking classes, $800 romantic getaways to Mendocino, $1500 romantic getaway to Vancouver, $300/year couples counseling, $600/person wine tasting weekends with friends, $800/month on premium foods from Whole Foods, $120/month laundry services, $200/month dog walking services, $160/year HD Netflix memberships, $500 new guitar, $80 Amazon Prime membership, $1800 Casper mattress purchases, $150 Lugg orders to take old mattress to dump, $80 TaskRabbit orders to assemble IKEA furniture, $600 interior designer fees to make your 300 sqft studio seem larger, $100/month salon haircuts, $500/year on bottles of water and reusable water bottles, $20 premium movie theatre tickets, $400/year on La Croix water, $1400/year on daily Kombucha, $300/year post-hangover detox juices, $30 TaskRabbit orders to buy Ibuprofen from drugstore at 1am, $500 attorney fees to provide legal opinion on whether your landlord can evict you for being too loud, $250 attorney fees for legal opinion on whether noise from neighbors breaches CA habitability standards due to poor wall construction, $500 CPA fees for fixing your incorrectly-reported RSU sales, and $1500/year financial advisor fees for advising you to invest your down payment in the stock market before a massive correction.
    Feb 11, 2018 3
    • Microsoft UMbR31
      StandingOvation.gif
      Especially for the spot on descriptions of bay area idiosyncrasies.
      Feb 11, 2018
    • Zillow Group hYtJ18
      That was.... detailed.
      Feb 11, 2018
    • Salesforce uYYD17
      How did you get access to my Mint account
      Feb 13, 2018
  • HPE ty99
    I don't witness this level of paranoia outside of Blind. You should get out more.
    Feb 11, 2018 3
    • Citibank oTcY13
      OP
      Good point. I do enjoy walking along the Embarcadero occasionally. Then again, I could get get hit by a car, launched into the bay, and finished off by a propeller on one of the blue & gold fleet boats. I think I’ll stay home ;)
      Feb 11, 2018
    • Capital One / Eng xjBA36
      You've really thought it through, huh?
      Feb 11, 2018
    • New TuDgnjH
      There's basically no downside risk to just rubbing one out.
      Feb 12, 2018
  • Microsoft sudo rm-r
    Its high time for a low. We've been on the high for too long. The longer it lasts the scarier I get.
    Feb 11, 2018 0
  • Oath / Eng FE$$
    Greedy when others are fearful
    Feb 11, 2018 1
    • eBay / Eng
      seat

      eBay Eng

      BIO
      Why did you click on me 😡
      seatmore
      Most people are greedy right now so you should be fearful
      Feb 11, 2018
  • Cisco truthdr999
    There are huge layoffs from huge companies like Cisco and apple !!
    Feb 11, 2018 2
    • Uber Sasta
      What’s new there ? Cisco lays off people annually since time immemorial.
      Feb 11, 2018
    • Cisco truthdr999
      True that
      Feb 11, 2018
  • Facebook public
    It's just you.
    Feb 11, 2018 0
  • Zillow Group hYtJ18
    I don't see the numbers but people are def feeling anxious. There sense that something is about to happen is pretty thick.
    Feb 11, 2018 0
  • Microsoft Heifbfis
    Employment growth is expected to slow down at this stage. There is no one to employ (number wise )...

    Wage growth and consumption will drive the economy forward for some time...
    Feb 11, 2018 0
  • L3 Technologies LatinaSW
    Apple layoffs???
    Feb 15, 2018 0