Housing indeed is crashing

Microsoft AlMonyGone
Oct 5, 2018 371 Comments

Price reduced in 1716 out of 5070 on sale over the last 30 days in seattle and east side.

Housing is indeed crashing.

Good luck to those who still don’t want to believe and keep their eyes closed.

And feeling sad for those who bought in the last 12 months. I am one of them :(

Housing indeed is crashing

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TOP 371 Comments
  • Google / Eng hooli.xyz
    Not really because of crash but because Seattle simply sucks.
    Oct 5, 2018 4
    • Microsoft AlMonyGone
      OP
      So you mean Seattle started sucking recently? Earlier the weather was better?
      Oct 5, 2018
    • Google / Eng hooli.xyz
      Hahaha, no. Seattle has always sucked.
      Oct 5, 2018
    • Amazon / Product
      8===D~

      Amazon Product

      PRE
      Google
      8===D~more
      “TRUUUUU” ::2chainz voice::
      Oct 7, 2018
    • Amazon / Eng Bluh
      He speaks the Tru Tru
      Oct 8, 2018
  • Oath / Mgmt Atinlay
    Winter is coming!
    Oct 5, 2018 2
    • Amazon Latebloom
      What’s that yellow badge next to your name?
      Oct 7, 2018
    • LinkedIn / Eng
      Cjir28

      LinkedIn Eng

      PRE
      Magic Leap
      Cjir28more
      Top contributor badge, if you tap on it it'll show a dialog window
      Oct 7, 2018
  • Amazon / Eng jNeo42
    It seems many for sale signs still come down pretty quickly or show “Sold by xxx”. At least for the sub-$1mil places which aren’t complete wrecks. I’m browsing Redfin for both Seattle and SF (the city, not SV), and there’s no longer a huge difference between the two. Whatever advantage people thought they’d get in Seattle over SF seems to be nearly lost. Taxes are lower here, but so is the pay. And you can’t put a price tag on being in the city of your choice — I mean, really, how many people out of 100 would choose Seattle over SF if costs are equal? Maybe the 5 who genuinely loathe sunshine?
    Oct 5, 2018 6
    • Coinbase CcKY64
      +5 more or so who loathe human excrement.
      Oct 7, 2018
    • Amazon / Eng jNeo42
      I haven’t found any human excrement on the sidewalks in Seattle, though I have seen some bottles refilled with recycled beverages, and some ugly plastic bags which looked too big to be doggy doo. But plenty of tents and RVs for sure, which I have never before seen in a city (and I lived in NYC for 21 years).
      Oct 7, 2018
    • Square Jqty44
      I think it means sf is covered in excrement.
      Oct 7, 2018
    • I would choose Seattle over SF every day of the week, even if SF streets were pristine. I just like the vibe and the weather and the location more.
      Oct 8, 2018
    • Microsoft zorQW77
      Seattle over SF every day. SF is filthy.
      Oct 10, 2018
  • Amazon / Eng jNeo42
    I can’t speak for SF, but I find Seattle to be a really hard sell once Amazon HQ2 kicks in. Of course there’s still MS and the expansion of G and FB. But Seattle has a weak startup scene, which doesn’t pay well and doesn’t carry the hype of SV startups. And of course it’s depressing here. It’s mid-October and already cold here, fleeting sun a few times a week. Nobody would ever choose this without a job making the choice, and hardly anyone would come here to retire. I doubt prices will crash here, but eventually people will come to their senses and realize it’s just not worth forcing yourself to live here for some unfulfilling corporate job. It’s a nice place to visit but there’s little need to stay here if you have choices.
    Oct 7, 2018 14
  • Microsoft havana✌
    Have you ever heard of seasonality?
    Oct 7, 2018 7
  • Microsoft compiler
    Higher interest rate, amazon hq2, chinese cash buyers not coming anymore - the factors are all there.
    Oct 6, 2018 5
    • Microsoft / Eng Tier 1
      This. Also new apartments and condos are just being completed in Seattle.

      I doubt we will see a crash, just a relatively small reduction in prices.
      Oct 7, 2018
    • Microsoft AlMonyGone
      OP
      How much % is “small reduction” according to you? I am already seeing 10%+ reduction in sales price for the houses in the market right now
      Oct 7, 2018
    • Microsoft / Eng Tier 1
      Well we should see prices roughly correlate with the inverse of the long term interest rates, as well as with local GDP.

      If interests rate double, expect prices to fall by 50%.

      Interest rates are very low right now by historical standards, but I don’t expect them to grow much right now.
      Oct 7, 2018
    • Square / Eng SQ
      Fall of 50% because of doubling rate? No.
      Oct 7, 2018
    • Amazon / Eng n0v
      There's a inverse correlation between interest rates and home prices, but it's certainly not linear. Rates have already gone from ~3% at their least to nearly 5%. In that time, housing prices are up. You need to look how monthly payments on a median priced home get affected by rise in interest rates. 600K @ 4% is roughly equal for monthly payments as 475K at 6%.
      Oct 7, 2018
  • CDW VQqN03
    Could it be that people are finally catching on to the fact that Seattle is not a good place to raise a good and normal family
    Oct 7, 2018 9
    • Microsoft ErranMorad
      So many immigrants, so ?
      Oct 8, 2018
    • Microsoft gfba68
      I chose to live in Seattle city limits. Far more interesting than the east side and the schools in the gentrifyong areas are fine. Also, it's cheaper than Bellevue and Kirkland these days.
      Oct 8, 2018
    • Amazon YVR666
      +1 on this.
      Oct 9, 2018
    • Microsoft Graco
      >So many immigrants
      Does uber in your profile means you drive uber?
      Oct 10, 2018
    • Uber / Other Hjkrdhk
      many immigrants = good thing, opportunities to become part of a community.
      Oct 10, 2018
  • New DuQvV7x
    This is not what “crash” means
    Oct 6, 2018 2
    • Microsoft AlMonyGone
      OP
      I said crashing. Not already “crashed”
      Oct 7, 2018
    • New DuQvV7x
      Suffixing “ing” or “ed” does not redefine “crash”
      Oct 7, 2018
  • Citibank / Eng TQtT37
    Not crashing just yet. Braking. It’s going to get so much worse. Same in sf Bay Area.
    Oct 5, 2018 3
    • Intel TxyU30
      breaking is a good analogy. We are definitely slowing down. We're headed in for a correction for sure. Weather that happens in the next 6 months or the next two years nobody knows. But it's definitely coming our way. I hate the stock market's head of her correction as well.
      Oct 5, 2018
    • Rates are rising. Prices will drop because of it
      Oct 7, 2018
    • Amazon Wilkeee
      It’s not a demand but a supply issue. The # of houses going into the market has increased, yet as demand is stable prices have declined
      Oct 7, 2018
  • Medallia Qualtrics
    Let's say something goes down from 1M to 700K - would you immediately consider it being cheap or affordable or reasonable? I'd not, especially with raising rates. In most cases 30% off isn't enough taking into account prices doubled and tripled before.
    Oct 7, 2018 1
    • Microsoft / Eng SenoritaWE
      $800k home, with 20% down. A
      3% mortgage, after 30 years you would have paid $331k in interest. In the near future at 5% interest, you would have paid $597k in interest. All assuming you don’t pay off early. $266k difference!
      Oct 7, 2018
  • Microsoft okfnfhbs
    What bout Chinese selling and cashing out? This might happen if trade war escalates and Chinese money flow is severely restricted. Market pressure and rising interest rate is not helping.
    Oct 6, 2018 8
  • Airbnb Ghrual
    There’s nothing to cause a crash now. Seattle housing market will crash when amazon stock crashes for a long period. SF housing market will crash when tech as a whole crashes.
    Oct 5, 2018 1
    • Microsoft AlMonyGone
      OP
      Many houses in seattle which were listed for around 600k were sold around 550k. Many have deceased their price from 600k to 540k and still in market. Thats already 10% down. It did not crash yet but its declining a lot for sure and soon gonna crash.
      Oct 7, 2018
  • Ingredion Incorporated / Eng yvFS30
    Why would you want prices to go up if you are a relatively young person? Don’t you want to continually upgrade where you live over the next decade? If so then hope prices don’t go up bc your next crib will be that much more expensive. Don’t obsess about your home as an investment...if that’s your primary investment in life you aren’t doing all that well son.
    Oct 7, 2018 5
    • Intel ciaobiatch
      You work for a shitty company giving advice to a person who works at amzn ms?
      Oct 7, 2018
    • Google / Eng hooli.xyz
      @ciaobiatch
      You’re in no position calling other companies as shitty. You work at Intel, dumbass.
      Oct 7, 2018
    • Intel ciaobiatch
      Haha. Intel is a shit company fosho i agree. But i dont work there anymore
      Oct 7, 2018
    • Google / Eng hooli.xyz
      @ciaobiatch
      Uh, huh. Nice try. Shut the fuck up.
      Oct 7, 2018
    • Cisco DuckUoo
      @Ciobiatch you cannot afford that kind of cockiness. Now biatch sit down
      Oct 8, 2018
  • Microsoft SuperPwr
    Prices are no longer going up 1% every month, it’s more like 0.5% now. Prices are definitely not going down yet. I am still seeing zestimate forecast for +6% increase for next year. This used to be +15%. This clearly looks like cooling down because of higher interest rates.

    My realtor friend told me that people have been insisting on same price growth like last year and when they put up house for sale with those prices, they found no buyer. So it’s first time since 2012 that sellers have to reduce prices before they find buyer. This is one reason houses are staying longer in the market and so inventory is piling up a bit. Eventually sellers would start with lower prices and inventory will loosen up a bit. It’s no longer the case that buyers have to compromise on inspection etc.

    My guess is that we are entering stabilization period and prices may remain same for long time. I don’t think it will go down or market will crash unless something pretty bad happens like war or trade going south etc.
    Oct 7, 2018 3
    • Microsoft / Eng CreepAsF
      +1
      Oct 7, 2018
    • New / Mgmt
      xyz69

      New Mgmt

      BIO
      Senior management in software development
      xyz69more
      This guy f*cks
      Oct 7, 2018
    • Oracle FuToi
      LOL. Zestimates are a joke.
      Oct 8, 2018
  • Google Eating
    What website is the screencap from?
    Oct 5, 2018 3
    • Pinterest PyD63f
      Redfin
      Oct 5, 2018
    • Cisco / IT ciscorocks
      Googler you don't even know this :(
      Oct 7, 2018
    • Oracle Eli
      Google probably has an internal tool like Redfin. They always do.
      Oct 8, 2018
  • Amazon / Eng
    RonHubbard

    Amazon Eng

    BIO
    Slightly above average with 6 inches.
    RonHubbardmore
    1 party showed up for my weekend open house last week. 🙁 Lynnwood, WA.
    Oct 7, 2018 5
    • Workday VfGruj
      Only 1? 😕
      Oct 7, 2018
    • Amazon / Eng
      RonHubbard

      Amazon Eng

      BIO
      Slightly above average with 6 inches.
      RonHubbardmore
      Yeah. Over two days of open house. . Total of 4 showings in more than a week.
      Oct 7, 2018
    • Microsoft zorQW77
      You live in Lynnwood mate. What did you expect?
      Oct 10, 2018
    • Microsoft maverickk
      Lynnwood housing market has never been great. The farthest that people working in Redmond/Seattle are willing to go are Bothell (in the North) or Kent (South). Anything out of these bounds are going to have a difficult time selling.
      Oct 10, 2018
    • Microsoft / Eng SenoritaWE
      Did you over price your house?
      Oct 14, 2018
  • Google ftw!
    Now that it’s trending, wait for all home owners to come and tell you how the market is going up and it always goes up!
    Oct 7, 2018 1
    • Microsoft Xhisia
      It is like sp500, it crashes from time to time and it will always come back and higher. Because it is not a supply demand phenomenon, it is phenomenon of monetary policy.
      Oct 7, 2018
  • Google / Eng ;O 𓂺
    Bay Area seems fine still. Our shitty little house is now worth over $2.5m.
    Oct 7, 2018 1
    • Monsanto Microsoft2
      How did you get that username?
      Oct 7, 2018
  • Facebook / Eng NopeNope!
    Melodramatic often?
    Oct 7, 2018 0
  • Amazon / Eng n0v
    Real estate has been a bull market for the last 20 years, returning 7%+ over many years. Long term historical return of real estate tracks wage inflation. So we will probably get several years of lower returns.
    Oct 7, 2018 6
    • Amazon / Eng n0v
      Yeah, obviously 2009-2012 weren't good years, but housing is still up 5-7%/yr avg for past 20 yrs
      Oct 7, 2018
    • Google MVou06
      Thats not how bull market definition work - stock market has gone up 7-10% /yr on avg for the last 100 yrs but we dont call it 100 yrs of bull market - there were periods of bear market in-between - same thing applies to housing market - 2009-2012 was an obvious bear market and then another bull market run was started at 2012 - making it 6 yrs of bull market
      Oct 7, 2018
    • Amazon / Eng n0v
      It's a matter of definition. I see the long term bull market trend in housing being driven by interest rates, which have been (unsteadily) going down since the 1980s. That's also why there's been a 30 year bull market in bonds. Now, that 30 year trend is reversing and rates are going up, so housing will be flat or go down in real terms. But yeah, the housing crash of 2008-2012 was clearly not a bull market for housing. But if we talk of 30+ year trends in housing, I'd suggest we are going for a long term bull market to a long term bear market. Rate trends drive the market.
      Oct 7, 2018
    • @n0v. You maybe the only one using that definition. 100 year bull market is ludicrous under your definition. Please don’t give financial advice.
      Oct 8, 2018
    • Uber hexag
      In this definition there is no bear market.
      Oct 8, 2018

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