Is it just with experience they'll get better?
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Yes. But more specifically, the more experience you have, the more you know how much that you don’t know. As such, you are much more likely to pad your estimate with how much that you don’t know about the task.
Why are you estimating stories individually and not as a team?
It doesn’t make sense to do an estimation by the team for individual stories/tasks.
Some people are more productive than others such as more senior people. If a senior person estimated this amount of time but a junior person did it then it would take longer than expected.
Be honest with your estimate - factor in unknowns, dependencies, random system failures, spec changes, etc etc. The more honest you can be, the less likely you will over promise. One misconception that junior people have is they need to give short estimate to impress people that they can do it, when in fact that is a sign of inexperience and they just end up not delivering on time. The more senior people give more buffers, account for unexpected delays, and learn to communicate problems along the way to get more time.
So true.
On behalf of all PMs, thank you for posing this question and looking to better your estimates. I mean that sincerely...inaccurate pts and unexpected pts have a dramatic effect on market impact downstream.
Recommend the Montgomery Scott methodology.
Well, senior people don't know how to estimate more than half the time too.
What do you mean by autonomy?
The other thing I would add is look back at previous estimates and where you went wrong. Explicitly examine your past performance. Do you underestimate the design piece? Over estimate the testing? Need double the time in implementation? Break things down more granularly and see how the smaller pieces stack up. Track it over a number of cycles and you'll get a better feel.
I usually overestimate my motivation to get it done :)
IMO as soon as you get accurate you’ll be stagnant because you know exactly how to do something