No one knows, if/when ipo happen plus lock out period the price could change dramatically in either direction. Could be a ton, could be very little.
Agree, look at roku Its just swinging
Lowest eng offer would probably be ~$5M minimum at current valuation. Also highly depends on when in 2012-2013 they joined and at what level. Joining earlier or above lowest eng level means multiplying that offer by a good deal.
500k-1m
"If"
I have a few data points. 2013 join has 45k rsus and options. 2012 join has 55k
Pre-split or post-split?
After the splits a mid level engineer joining in 2013 would be easily holding 200k options. If price per share at IPO is 50-70 you do the math. I have no data for 2012 but I would not be surprised if it is at least 2-3x this.
Can you do the math; don’t have all the relevant info wrt how options at Uber work
Since the strike price of options is in cents, it is all profit (less taxes). So 200k options at 50 dollars share price is 10mm. So, a mid level engineer joining in 2013 will have at least 10mm and easily 15 or 20mm depending on final share price and variations on initial grant. Of course, higher levels or joining earlier would mean exponentially more.
I worked there, did a lot of math that I can’t recall now. Let’s talk the $68bn valuation, which would be $50/share. I believe early 2013 swe ii or iii would make $5mm or $10mm. The company was small, optimism was up, and people at this time early-exercised. So, no tax. Even mid to late 2013 is a different ballgame. You’re looking at 50% to 25% as much equity as early 2013. By mid-2014, options were such that, when Softbank made their tender in mid-2017 and employees could sell, that a given stock of RSU was worth more than the options. RSUs started being given out in 2015. I think swe iii offers were about 30k RSUs then. So, that’s like $1.5mm, but taxed as income. You can work a lot of this out yourself using vauation numbers and assuming the nominal comp of engineers is going to stick to a pattern, e.g. swe iii are paid 85% fb salary, 150% fb equity of a given year. Moving on, for the earliest employees, my estimate was $400mm. (Again, this may be post-tax if early exercised!) Really hard to tell, I could be off by an order of magnitude. I think the $120bn valuation won’t hold. I expect it to be $60-$90bn by time the employee lockup window ends, but I can’t value or price companies for shit, this is nonsense speculation.
What GD planning in 2025 for you?
We finally plan to revamp our oldass salary data in 2025!
Until then blind, levels.fyi would have far better data ;)