Money

How will you split your investment amount across the upcoming mega IPOs of Uber/Lyft/AirBnB/Pinterest/Slack/WeWork?

Amazon QTDv24
7d

If you had $X to invest, how will you split it across the upcoming IPOs - Uber/Lyft/AirBnB/Pinterest/Slack/WeWork? Why?

My answer is 25/15/35/5/10/10 - purely based on how I see the risk and the growth potential.

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  • Facebook / Biz DevIsiskendi
    0 in all of them. All in s&p
    If I had to pick : slack and Airbnb because they are growing and have a model that can drive high operating margins. Shorting Uber and Lyft for sure
    7d0
  • Airbnb / Otheroujkhgg
    80/20/0/0/0/0. Not investing in Airbnb because I work there. I think Uber has great potential because of its market share and tech team. Also see it as a vehicle to get exposure to Didi and Grab which are great businesses as well.
    7d0
  • Glu Mobile PQSK63
    50/50 with Slack and Airbnb because they actually turns a profit. Uber/Lyft buying time until they can fire drivers for self-driving cars. Pinterest seems to be a one trick pony advertising company that Facebook or Snap can copy and integrate within their existing platform. WeWork's product seems interesting, but its nutty culture will drive away the best talent and slowly die/taken over by a more hungry competitor.
    7d0
  • Twitter Commonutil
    You must be a new grad. Any seasoned professional knows to invest in index funds and stay away from IPOs.
    7d8
    • Amazon QTDv24
      OP
      Not a new grad. Have never invested in IPOs. Thinking if makes sense to change that with a little discretionary amount for these mega IPOs.
      7d
    • Microsoft
      tech.ladki

      Microsoft

      PRE
      Google
      tech.ladkimore
      Then VCs and Angels wouldn't exist
      7d
    • Square / Engsj42hc
      I don't know if they invest AT IPOs?
      6d
    • Twitter Commonutil
      U think a retail investor can make money against sharks post IPO? All the smart money was already in before the IPO. Once the company IPOs all the smart money sells to suckers like you (retail investors: software engineers in Silicon Valley that think they are smarter than others and can beat the market)
      6d
    • Microsoft
      tech.ladki

      Microsoft

      PRE
      Google
      tech.ladkimore
      Fair enough, and I'm not saying it will be profitable, but can we acknowledge that people who purchased FB at IPO have made serious profits?
      6d
    • Amazon QTDv24
      OP
      I agree that serious profits have already been made by the pre-IPO money but it’s absurd to think that it means that there won’t be any growth going forward. Now you can argue that the risk-reward for that future growth are unattractive, and that may very well be the case. But to argue that there is no growth potential after the IPO is not right.
      6d
    • Twitter Commonutil
      When did I say no growth potential? Ur an idiot that must have failed the reading comprehension part of the SAT.
      5d
    • Amazon QTDv24
      OP
      No need to get personal. I don’t think you are really thinking before writing. Here is what you said, “Once the company IPOs all the smart money sells to suckers like you”. You would call someone a sucker here only if you assume that he’s not getting anything out of it, which would happen only if these companies stop growing.
      5d
  • New sparked
    Airbnb is the only one that has a super competitive advantage over new comers to the market and is profitable.

    If I had to pick a second choice I would go with slack, but ultimately chat services are always a race to the bottom and in 5 years we will all we using some other chat service that does these three things slightly better than slack

    Pinterest would be third as they have a very good platform for ads and generating revenue, but I don’t see any clear path for them to drastically scale their user base in a meaningful way
    7d0
  • Uber God.
    If you think it’s as simple as “they don’t make a profit. Short it.” You really ought to go nowhere near picking stocks
    7d1
    • Facebook / Biz DevIsiskendi
      When losses double every year instead of narrowing, with no concrete plan for even breaking even until autonomous vehicles, I get worried
      6d
  • Facebook vlMg30
    100% VTSAX
    7d1
  • Facebook / Biz DevIsiskendi
    Conclusion / everyone dumping lyft and Uber :)
    7d1
    • Amazon QTDv24
      OP
      Maybe I’m over indexing on the ride sharing opportunity with fully autonomous vehicles in 10 years and Uber Eats.
      7d
  • Intel superrr
    Total stock market : total bond market - 70:30
    7d0
  • I would buy 1 year option straddles on each once they become available.
    6d3
    • Workday hgchsgs53
      Care to explain the reasoning behind it ? Do options start trading as soon as company iPos ?
      6d
    • Options don't start trading immediately. Typically takes 3 months or so.

      The expectation is these companies will either soar spectacularly, or crash. There's no middling in-between.

      An option straddle makes money when the underling stock price is far away from the strike price at the time of maturity.

      Buying straddles therefore means you have an expectation that the price of each of these stocks will be far from the strike price in a year.

      The premium that the options cost will dictate how far the market thinks the stock will move, and further determines your breakeven point. So as long as the premium is reasonably low, it's a worthwhile trade for me.
      6d
    • But the downside is if the price stays between your straddle until your options expire, your options will be worth nothing and you'll lose all that money spent on buying them. In order to guarantee that doesn't happen, you'll need to buy options with very long expiry dates but those will be expensive.
      6d
  • Salesforce Sadforce
    5/20/5/5/60/5
    7d0
  • Split 20% of your money evenly between them, the rest in index.
    7d0

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