If USA downsized their military greatly, how does that affect European/Asian military spending?
If USA downsized their military greatly, how much more would other countries eventually need to spend to fill the gap left in Europe, SE Asia, etc.? Many say USA should cut military spending by half and invest in their citizens, how does that affect geopolitics for the next 100 years?
I have no skin in the game, but I have heard others say that USA polices the ocean and many of the main transportation channels between countries and open water. How would the world be affected if the Navy was scaled back and space operations (satellite, etc) scaled back? Serious question, I don't want to be influence incorrectly by retoric which is false - I truly do not know.
That would lead to more freedom on the seas. Right now the US Navy can stop and seize foreign ships and does so regularly forcing other countries to follow US diktats or do risky things like turning off transponders. Check out the US seizures of Iranian ships and North Korean ships also google Yinhe Incident (1993)
Yes, that was the deal afternoon WWII. Look into the Bretton Woods Agreement for more information.
Let's be honest, I think Europeans know and are glad the US is footing some of their defense bill. As smaller countries you would expect their military spending as a % of GDP to be higher than 1%. So definitely more spending in NATO countries. Asian spending is more of a mixed bag, I think China would drop, Philippines and Vietnam maybe increase to counter China without the US, Korea and Japan probably about the same, since they already are strong enough to deter and attack. It's hard to see large adjustments since the military budgets are largely already constrained by economic goals.
Call me crazy, but it’ll likely go up
Military spending does invest in US citizens. Look no further than the welfare states where their largest economic engine is military bases and spending. Those states would be devastated by spending cuts, as we saw in the 80’s & 90’s with base closures. Some of those areas still haven’t recovered.
For the last 500 years at least there’s never been a century without major/ global war. Perhaps the 21st-century will break the trend, I wound not make that bet though. The worlds going to get a more interesting post 2020. The The old WTO trading system is falling, the US is building a new bilateral deal with a select few players, we don’t need anyone else, we got all our energy needs and we can do the majority of our trading in the western hemisphere. Japan’s cool so they’re in the mix and Australia. Special deal with the UK. That’s it. We don’t need the EU we don’t need China the rest of the world can go pound sand.
Generally, I believe de-militarization leads to other countries doing the same as the threat is smaller. And the other way around. If China built 100k nukes, we’d do the same. Someone just need to take the first step either way. ✌️
And that’s a very unique view of international relations. suggest you read up on great power balancing. That’s what’s going to happen. There’s going to be areas where we withdraw and others are going to see an opportunity to expand their military influence. It’s inevitable. It’s OK. Let’s just not being super naïve about it
We would still outspend the next 3 largest combined if it was cut in half. Source: My all-knowing 3rd eye