How is automotive manufacturing capacity forecasted/measured? Tesla has been forthright with reasons why model3 production counts are below their forecast however I don’t quite get how they would have forecasted so many in the beginning if they had measured well during early production of the 3?
That's because they haven't actually gotten their manufacturing tooling completely ready yet. There's a lot of work required to get an assembly line up and running. Like any forecasting it is an estimate and things come up that affect the timeline. I think Tesla said they had some parts they found unreliable and decided to design it themselves, things like that can add unexpected delays. Toyota and others are way better at getting a new assembly line up and running. Tesla is still learning.
In that case the estimate should have come from a simulation of a build and a not a measured forecast from a physical build ... that’s the kind of details I’m reaching for from anyone with an automotive background... in biologics manufacturing, forecast is based on physical not just simulated... or their physical tooling worked enough for the estimate and failed after 100 etc... just guessing at this point
It's not that easy to simulate everything. There are lot of things you discover with more practice.