Morgan Stanley Warns about Recession . What’s your take ?
A global recession could start within nine months if President Donald Trump imposes 25 per cent tariffs on an additional US$300 billion of Chinese exports and Beijing retaliates, according to Morgan Stanley. Separately, JPMorgan Chase & Co. said the probability of a U.S. recession in the second half of this year had risen to 40 per cent from 25 per cent a month ago.
Also sounding the alert, economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said they now expect the U.S. to impose 10 per cent tariffs on the remaining US$300 billion-worth of imports from China and on all Mexican goods, too. The bank lowered its U.S. second-half growth forecast by about half a percentage point to 2 per cent and said its sees a greater likelihood of interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve