Which tech startups are worth joining now which could turn big in next few years
- None. Google is going to wipe out human civilization as we know it
- I’ve heard like flexport but it seems just a glorified google sheets business and most of it is still email and phone calls
- Can’t speak for engineering, but the entire Org is extremely talented and everyone is really engaged in their work. The industry is ripe for disruption, and we can’t hire enough to keep up with the demand.
Currently, 12% of global GDP is spent on logistics and freight forwarding and the maker is extremely fragmented. The largest leader in this industry only has ~2% of the market share.May 27
- No flexyy. There are ~300m seaborne container trips a year at ~$2500 average price in an industry that is not covering its WACC. You have huge capex, and comoditized product with margins on the each step of value chain being razor thin at best. As an intermediary your max reach is probably 20% of the price of max 50% of the market (rest is sourced through liners directly). Your profitability at best would be 10% as you complete with 20+ others. With EBIT multiplier at around 8, it gives your market a total valuation of 64b and very slow expected growth (due to economic slowdown and decreasing GDP/trade multiplier). Flexport valuation is at 5% of that. You still have a long way to reach this market share. And you don't have relationships with customers that liners, FFs and 4PLs have.May 42
- Pornhub. They’ll make it big. Real big. Investments in VR and a rather diversified portfolio.
- Pornhub is basically YouTube. My sense is that They suffer from the same business challenges, in that it is difficult to monetize the business outside of ads, and once you expand past NA and EU, ad sales is difficult and with each new minute of additional watch time growth, your profitability is negative. And like YouTube, they can launch premium subscription products but I doubt anyone will pay for it. So they're kind of stuck in limbo with this monopolistic product that can't really grow anywhere :/
- @dropbox, the company is called mind geek, their office is pretty sleek and looks like any tech office. You basically tell people you're a machine learning engineer doing image recognition and video recommendation work.
Way I think about it, Yt spends shit tons of money and still can't figure out a good enough of an algorithm to detect 18 plus content and rely on user reports to filter out content. Pornhub is not only able to detect what genre of porn something is, its working on ways to detect whether an actress appears too young and automatically flag for further checks. If YouTube can just acquire that entire training data and mark them all as inappropriate, I feel like they won't have a safety issue around porn anymore :/
- First of all, I never said yt should acquire pornhub... I said in a hypothetical world, they should acquire the training data set that porn hub has such that they can better catch rogue adult content on YouTube.
But now that I think about it some more, I'm sure there is a lot of synergies there. Just got to set up a shell company under another shell company and spin that off as a special purpose investment vehicle. Voila, you share network infrastructure, cross pollinate ideas for best search and recommendation algorithms.
Like think about it, YouTube algo mostly sucks when it comes to surfacing content I want to see and I often spend 15 min browsing for the right video to watch. On the flip side, I last 3 min on pornhub... They're doing something a lot more right
- Loled at 3 minutes. 😂 YT sucking at recs for you is probably a perception based on context. If you're horny and looking at porn, chances are massive portions of the PH catalogue would be satisfactory for giving you a hand in your intended task. Now, if you're looking to fill a non task oriented need for some ambiguous form of nonsexual entertainment, what works better than YT? Maybe Netflix, but the corpus of content is not even comparable.
- Twitch / Cust. Srv.BlackNiggamoreNice pun on giving me a hand.
That said, if im looking to fill my brain with brainless content and just start watching something to forget about time, I would go on tik tok. Heck, even fb watch is doing this better as you scroll through endless 12 second or short form videos that add up to an hour.
Feel like youtuve should open home page to a live short video playing to start hooking the audience and then immediately play next short video after first video ends. At least on the mobile app.
And as for porn, still think recommendation is better on pornhub than say xhamster which is like an irrelevant site these days
- Twitch / EngUrgentpizamoreHey @twitch. New start up idea
What if we make a tik tok but for porn? 12 second quick videos of best moments from pornhub, catered to user preferences. Like cut out the search part, just make it direct to video content. If you like it, watch it, if not, flick up and go directly to next video.
Half the time on pornhub is wasted on search. Why not cut that down and just allow ml to recommend you videos it thinks will get you off the fastest?
- How about Stripe? New hub in Seattle, some of the best API’s there are and a core service for the payments world to work smoothly. They’re probably a few years out from going public but I’ve heard good things...
Side note: is there a set number of years one has to be there before one would have to pay back money toward their vested RSU’s if they haven’t gone public? I’ve heard that some startups do that and it sounds risky for the employee
- No you don’t pay it back, but you won’t get them in the first place.
The stock only really vests on liquidation. That can happen before or after you leave the company. But if they expire (regardless if you left or not), the RSUs are invalidated. This is how you don’t get taxed on them. Because it’s technically not income as they technically haven’t vested.
Double-trigger is 1: vest and 2: liquidation.
- But if you’re referring to why, new grads at companies like Stripe can easily end up with over $100k a year in stock. Having to pay tax on that without being able to use the liquidity can be brutal. You’d need to find another way to pay for it, like out of your base salary.
- Zillow Group TKact2345Yes. Pre-IPO RSUs are considered income by the IRS, no different from post-IPO RSUs. That is why no startups offer regular RSUs to employees. They either offer options (ISOs or NQSOs) or double-trigger RSUs.
The fact that something isn’t liquid or tradable on given markets, doesn’t mean much in terms of taxation.
Source: have worked at several early-stage and late-stage startups, where I have received both RSUs and ISOs.
You can also read more here: https://blog.visor.com/equity/ipo-tax-implications-stock-options-and-rsus/
- Very helpful, thank you. I’m pretty positive Stripe is a double trigger RSU which is where my offer is coming from. They are likely 2-3 years away from IPO which sounds like could have some big tax implications with a lot of vested stock. So, if they pay me 100k more in cash to leave Amazon over 3 years (300k) but then I get him with a huge tax bill when they IPO I’m guessing that with Amazon stock appreciation and a big tax bill that I’d net out the same or less on TC after it’s all said and done. Am I missing something? Seems like going to a promising startup that pays well is almost not worth the financial risk if the taxes will be so huge. Also sounds like pushing for as much on base and bonus is best (no brained I know)
- It is a cutting edge high-tech firm out of the Midwest awaiting imminent patent approval on the next generation of radar detectors that have both huge military and civilian applications. Now, right now, John, the stock trades over-the-counter at 10 cents a share. And by the way, John, our analysts indicate it could go a heck of a lot higher than that. Your profit on a mere $6,000 investment could be upwards of $60,000!May 42
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- Unity seems like it’s expanding into construction, medical, automotive verticals and has big partnerships with Microsoft, Google and Facebook.
I’d bet big on them.
- No it really doesnt, there's datadog and lots of small scale things, BigQuery and so forth, but besides Google i would say that Splunk is #2 in terms of Enterprise search. Sumo logic is just elk. I don't think anything else does a large range of formats in real time in a fast, automated way like Splunk does, and the SaaS model at other companies is labor intensive and doesn't scale.