No bubble in real estate- my company touches 44% of every real estate transaction in US.
and that makes yoy expert how?
Haha! Well, I understand how that sounds. I really just didn't feel like typing a long answer bc I'm on my phone. But if I must... I'm a data scientist who has built an application that aggregates all data from open market transactions. What is in this dataset, you might ask? Everything tantamount to making insights, trend analysis, and more importantly, automated business concepts and theories that could consolidate the real estate market in the near future. Maybe that's being too ambiguous for you, so let's put that data in perspective. I can see 44% of all the commercial and residential transactional data in the United States in real time (well, real time is relative, so I get to see it when our prod systems etl and our sql servers go through their nightly routines). This real time data has every party involved in the transaction i.e. bank data, realtor, broker, attorney, buyer, seller, and much more depending on what type of transaction it is (refi, purchase, 1031, etc) I look at this data for hours upon hours in every fashion you could imagine, by market/ region, city, state etc. I also look at it day to day, quarter to quarter, year over year etc. I guess I don't claim to be an expert- that's unbecoming. But the people who invest millions of dollars based on my analysis sure seem to think highly of me. Btw: you spelled "you" wrong.
No one can predict but it does look like the current real estate market in WA is backed by some solid fundamentals. Unlike last time around, mortgages require 20% down payment. In fact, average is close to 25% so market has to correct 25% or more for so called "bubble" to burst. Interest rates are still historically low, Seattle is not only seeing buyers from China but there are buyers from east coast who are investing in Seattle. With solid job market, demand for homes is off the roof.
schiller pe is still rather high. so stock market going down could trigger a crisis. still vert hard to predict - that is the thing wirh bubbles.
But, how do you buy a house from the 1960's at $1M+? When in other areas of the US similar houses would go for $300K or less?
You mean how can you rationalize a house being that expensive? It's simply lots of people want to get a house close to their job, lots of people moving to seattle area and getting high paying jobs. those people compete with each other for the limited housing market. as long as their are lots of jobs, which in part depends on the economy growing, there will be lots of people working here.
You can get a house built after 2010 for $1M as well. Unless you specify the details of the house and the trade offs you are willing to make it is hard to tell but Seattle still has a lot of options across various price bands if you are willing to have a 30 minute commute
About 150% appreciation away from starting to bubble.
Yes, it’s a bubble. The bubble is related to the tech wage bubble. Buy whenever you want, you’re not getting ahead or falling behind. Better to not buy and just take your bubble money outside...
Real estate in Seattle is strongly correlated to the health of Amazon and MSFT. When you say the bubble will pop what you are hoping for is that those firms will stop growing in Seattle and start layoffs. Google and FB are investing here in a big way so that is unlikely to happen for sometime. Single family homes. Supply <<<<< demand. Townhomes supply is catching up to demand and should level off. Condos. Chinese investors are keeping demand high. As ppl wait to buy homes, they rent and more rentals means more condos and townhomes being bought as investments increasing demand
never buy a condo or townhome. sfh or bust
Buy now. Your home value will likely appreciate quickly. It's not easy though since the demand is high and inventory is low. But If you don't buy your landlord will just keep jacking up your rent.
Read up on the housing bubble in Vancouver BC, their recent foreign investment tax law, and how it has impacted Seattle. Consider how this affects your risk.
Not sure if there is a bubble or not but at some point the median price of a home will push too many loans into the Jumbo Loan territory and there will not be sufficient funds to support new people moving into the area. So you think that would cause a plateau in the price.
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It could be, or it could be like the Bay area.