Roblox offer

Hoping to get some insight into whether it's worth taking an offer for a senior dev manager role at Roblox. Offer is as follows: $245k base 80k options ($2-3 current spread, I'd guess worth around $15 spread by IPO) vested over 4 years. $50k sign on 10k options granted yearly (strike price will differ) Unlimited PTO No bonus My current pay is as follows for a manager role in Seattle: $220k base 50k profit sharing LTIPs granted yearly, likely worth around $2-3 each vested over 3 years $20k anniversary bonus (one remaining year) 50k LTIPs pending vest in 2 years (which I'd have to give up) ~15% average cash bonus Unlimited PTO I did some math, and if I assume no appreciation of the stock/LTIPs, the Roblox offer comes out to approximately $1.2M over 4 years, while my current pay comes out to around $1.3M. My thoughts are that this offer isn't good enough, even with the title bump, especially when cost of living and taxes in CA are taken into account. The only way it makes any sense is if I think Roblox will 10x in value over 4 years, but at a $2.5B current valuation I'm not certain that makes sense. Any thoughts would be highly appreciated!