Money

The U.S. Yield Curve Just Inverted. That’s Huge.

New RzFr15
Dec 3

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  • Citibank / Finance$$>RSU
    Wake me up when the 10 year inverts. This is clickbait for now.
    Dec 30
  • Amazon pi hff fgj
    Can someone explain it in a simple way?
    Dec 33
    • LinkedIn xkcd1
      This
      Dec 3
    • Amazon / Engn0v
      Usually you get higher interest for a long term loan than a short term loan. When the short term loan has a higher interest rate than the long term loan, that is called an inversion. It suggests that money will become scarce/tight in the short term, and historically is a reliable indicator of an upcoming recession.
      Dec 3
    • Amazon pi hff fgj
      Thanks
      Dec 3
  • Facebook Instagrаm
    Come on, this time it’s different
    Dec 31
  • Amazon / Engn0v
    5 yr/3yr invert is a bad sign. But 10yr/2yr invert is the traditional indicator.
    Dec 30
  • Agilent Technologies / R&Dm/z
    What's reported is the 3-5 year split and this article is to make suckers like you panic and sell all your stock the next day. The major indicator for yield curve inversion is the 2-10 split, followed by a downturn a couple months to a year after.
    Dec 31
    • Workday brKIi0
      So basically we're going to get out before you and have more profits.
      Dec 4
  • LinkedIn Al_Bundy
    If you invest in shitty stocks or need the liquid in the next decade, selling might make sense. Drive the prices down for me please!
    Dec 31
    • Workday brKIi0
      No worries. Everyone here will take care of this for you. Watch stock values plummet.
      Dec 4
  • New / Eng////
    I think 1Y-10Y split is the indicator that matters. 3-5 split does not guarantee anything.
    Dec 32
    • Citibank / Finance$$>RSU
      2-10

      No guarantees but has an excellent track record of predictability.
      Dec 3
    • New / Eng////
      Thanks, will keep in mind.
      Dec 4
  • Apple crook
    Yeah, another one was last year. Every once I a while some sucker "analyst" posts this shit hoping to get it right.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/05/inverted-yield-curve-predicting-coming-recession-commentary.html?fbclid=IwAR1xYh54XLoqJN5cj9A-3aaxWrYxFxayGSJ7bbmD0_E3hGoJwmBCJ6aOMAg
    Dec 30
  • Visa shaolin
    Thats Yuge!
    Dec 30
  • New / EngScarn🎙
    Sell sell sell
    Dec 30
  • Salesforce / Otherchatbot3.0
    Recession still about 12-18 months out
    Dec 37
    • Citibank / Finance$$>RSU
      That’s what everyone has been saying for 12 - 18 months
      Dec 3
    • Workday brKIi0
      When do you think it is, Citibank?
      Dec 4
    • Citibank / Finance$$>RSU
      If I knew that I wouldn’t be shit posting on blind. But, I do know it will happen. That’s why I have a pile of cash set aside ready to jump in when everything falls apart.
      Dec 4
    • Workday brKIi0
      Nice. Why not buy a bunch of Leaps? They're cheap and payoff is 7:1 or better. Recession will be within 4 years (otherwise all hail the 14 year expansion period), so return pretty much guaranteed.
      Dec 4
    • Citibank / Finance$$>RSU
      I’m in it for two more cycles and then I’ll hit my FIRE number ($5MM). Thinking 13 - 15 years so long term with compounding returns is better for my situation. Great suggestion though.
      Dec 4
    • eBay CEbi00
      @workday What basis you use for pay off calculation as 7:1. When you say leaps , did you mean buying 1-2 year puts with delta:70 or so ?
      5d
    • Workday eP8fFr
      The calc looks something like this... puts are $500 each Jan 2020 for 30% out of money. Likely decline 60% from highs, if captured. Sell price equivalent to puts 30% in money today expiring Jan 2019 (sell 2020 this time next year).

      There's a little more to it including probability of not capturing and rolling out, but that's the essence.
      5d
  • Cisco osmosis
    What does the split mean may I ask?
    Dec 40
  • Microsoft / DesignJuulYrslf
    It’s not going to be an instantaneous collapse. But I wouldn’t be surprised if the market reacts
    Dec 30

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