The real irony in Uber IPO

Quantcast HEE468
May 12 56 Comments

Upon IPO, Uber employees will be able to afford Tesla. Many will buy it. The irony is Tesla is Uber’s biggest existential threat. From Autonomy Day presentations we learned that their self-driving is way ahead of everybody else including Uber. Personally I largely agree with what they said, especially Elon’s trashing of lidar and HD map. But even if we discount their prospects (some might say there is too much Muskian confidence baked in), they will still be a formidable competitor to Uber.

By buying Tesla Uber employees will be helping Tesla - of course only in a small way, but help nonetheless. One can argue that this can be offset by the possibility that those in Uber self-driving division will learn a thing or two in the process.

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TOP 56 Comments
  • Tesla AnlD52
    At tesla we have already achieved L5 self driving. The end is near for uber as we will have their whole market share.
    May 1212
    • Quantcast HEE468
      OP
      Wait - even Elon didn’t say that. Honestly can’t tell if you’re being serious or facetious
      May 12
    • Thermo Fisher zeussical
      And if you don’t want to pay over $100k for a Tesla then what? I hate Uber but to think everyone can afford a Tesla for self driving is silly.
      May 12
    • Honeywell that1guy
      A model 3 is considerably cheaper than $100k. Also the model y coming..
      May 12
    • Thermo Fisher zeussical
      Ok, $40,000 with self driving and it needs to be charged. Not every one has access to that sort of cash and doesn’t have access to a charging outlet necessarily.
      May 12
    • Microsoft Tier 1
      Imagine if Tesla created an Uber competitor, using only its own cars.
      May 12
    • Google __human__
      Iirc this is literally the plan, and the ToS for the cars already says that Tesla autopilot can't be used on any other ridesharing platform.
      May 12
    • Microsoft Tier 1
      TOS? On a car you bought? Lol what
      May 12
    • Uber sight
      Tesla’s manufacturing can’t even keep up with existing orders. The biggest risk to Tesla is Tesla itself.
      May 12
    • Facebook Ubеr
      Must be smoking same shit Elon is
      May 12
    • Lyft xFFu83
      Tesla is probably the furthest away from self driving. They do not have a single car on the road with the hardware or software capable of self driving as defined by CA DMV. You can look at their yearly filing with the DMV that they have logged exactly 0 actual self driving miles on CA roads. Sorry, adaptive cruise control does not count as self driving.
      May 13
  • Facebook Instagrаm
    From their autonomous day we learned they’re really good at bullshitting everyone with tech specs and faking till they make it. Even though I‘m Uber’s hater no1, we should multiply Elon’s timeline by a factor much greater than one.
    May 120
  • Salesforce lembun
    Most were able to afford one before the IPO..
    May 120
  • Uber zhdbwb
    Imagine believing Musk at his word
    May 120
  • Amazon ehuuS
    Where you work doesn’t define your life. A few hundred Tesla’s is not gonna make an impact
    May 120
  • Google envelope
    I also think Tesla will win the Robo-taxi race. Massive data collection with hundreds of thousands of cars feeding training data. No other company, Waymo, Uber, Cruise, etc can compete with that type of data at scale. L5 self-driving can only be reached by accounting for the long tail risks. Think scenarios that occur 0.00001% or less. You don’t get that with 1000 car fleet or even 10,000 car fleet.

    Whether it’s 2 years away or 7. Tesla is in the best position to get there first. I understand many people no longer believe Elon’s predictions, but it’s a matter of when, not if.

    With a Robo-taxi fleet, the company is destined for a 1 trillion dollar market cap. And while more are short, I will continue to accumulate.
    May 122
    • Cisco Lkng4rnwjb
      Perfect you nailed it Tesla might not make autonomous car next year but in the race they are really far ahead
      May 12
    • Facebook Ubеr
      Not all cars have the right equipment and there are limits to how much fancy data you can download off of the cars. Also, generally getting a pretty shitty feel from the quality of software on the car. It is still the best car there is (I have one), but I don’t see Tesla pulling this off in next 5 years at least.
      May 12
  • Apple Saut84
    Can’t believe people still think Tesla is still even in the self driving game!! They are simply not, they simply do not even have resource to do that, and they are just make a driving assistant system!!
    May 124
    • Quantcast HEE468
      OP
      Who then in your opinion are in the game? And what are your data points? We have many engineers here, so let’s don’t just throw rhetoric around. Instead let’s get some important details.
      May 12
    • Facebook rheirjrurv
      I think Tesla is closest in making self driving a reality. The rest of the folks are busy driving test cars around, while Tesla is making cars on the road more and more autonomous. They’re even launching full self driving this year. As a consumer, Tesla has the best self driving tech out there that’s accessible to me.
      May 12
    • Uber うベる
      Tesla’s current autopilot is really poor. I barely use it. I can’t see how they could go from the current version to level 5 in a year.
      May 12
    • Lyft xFFu83
      Lol, because it can’t. People so amazed by adaptive cruise control, auto park, and a gimmick summon button on their phone.
      May 13
  • Uber ueue
    Must be why Elon fired a bunch of people from Autopilot and had to do a capital raise.

    #winning
    May 120
  • SAP ksYR03
    Tesla is going to go bankrupt and file for chap 11 in few months. You are a stupid to believe any of that Autonomy Day garbage. Tesla is lagging in FSD. Uber has nothing to fear
    May 145
    • Apple Saut84
      Agree, I just can’t believe people buy into this BS
      May 14
    • Quantcast HEE468
      OP
      Do you want to have a bet on Tesla’s chap 11? Aug 1? $1000? I can do it with either one of you or both.
      May 15
    • Google hodling
      I will put another $1000 along with Quantcast. Any takers?
      May 15
    • SAP ksYR03
      I am willing to bet Tesla is filing for BK by June 2020. Had he not scammed more investors 2 weeks ago and defrauded them of $2.7B, by this July They wud have filed for bankruptcy. Now they have 6 months more time. I will take the bet for Jun 2020. Wanna have that?
      May 16
    • Quantcast HEE468
      OP
      Tesla finished its new funding long before your first post. So you should stand by your words. You are simply using the funding as an excuse to push the date further into the future. That’s lame.

      Moreover I’m amazed by your math. If Tesla would file for bankruptcy in July and the new fund postponed it by 6 months, then they will file for chapter 11 in Jan 2020. How can it be Jun 2020?

      You are a rude and dishonest douchebag.
      May 17
  • Uber suuuuuuup
    Lmao what
    May 120
  • Elon also said they would have “full self driving” capability in August of 2018.

    It’s still not here yet (only supports on-ramp to off-ramp).
    May 123
    • Tesla AnlD52
      Its past that lol
      May 12
    • According to whom?
      May 13
    • Lyft xFFu83
      Supporting on-ramp to off-ramp is not even true. If you have to pay attention at all times and constantly take over, it is not self driving... Tesla employees seem to forget that part.
      May 13
  • Let's say Tesla nails self driving cars and comes up with their own app. How many cars can they build? They had trouble building cars fast enough to fill their orders, and now you want them to build enough cars to compete against Uber?

    I think the most likely scenario which will be beneficial for everyone is if they partner with Uber and/or Lyft to put their cars on one of the existing apps as a new product. This way they don't need to spend time building their own app and ride sharing customer support, and can get to market much quicker.

    Or Tesla owners will get to put their individual cars on these apps.
    May 127
    • Google envelope
      If they achieve L5 self-driving, they do not need Uber or Lyft. They can build 500,000 cars a year already and this will only ramp up and within a few years, a Tesla self owned robo-taxi service will eat Uber and Lyft alive.

      It’s more like Uber and Lyft will combine forces along with another carmaker to compete with Tesla. But battling against Elon is not going to be easy.
      It’s will be like Blue Horizon trying to compete with SpaceX.
      May 12
    • How much will it cost them to build each car? And how long will it take each car (assuming rides are priced competitively) to earn back its build and maintainance costs?
      May 12
    • Google envelope
      It will cost over 15 billion to build the cars and likely 1-2 years to recoup that cost. Once L5 is reached, Tesla will be well over 100B market cap which they can raise if necessary to fund the build.

      I really don’t see why they would allow Tesla owners to contribute to the fleet. This maybe just a tactic to get cars sold now to fund growth until L5 is ready.

      Tesla’s will have a 1 million mile shelf life which will prove to be way more cost effective than non-electric cars.
      May 12
    • Facebook Ubеr
      Sci fi
      May 12
    • Google envelope
      Probably sci-fi... until it isn’t. Same as 10 years ago, the story of 3 rocket boosters landing simultaneously on land and a little ship in the middle of the ocean was sci-fi. 🤷‍♀️
      May 12
    • Facebook Ubеr
      Those don’t involve pesky humans
      May 12
    • I'm not asking you how much it'll cost to build "the cars", I don't even know how many cars you meant by that. I'm asking you how much it'll cost to build ONE car and how long it'll take to recoup that. Then there's the cost to build and maintain an app, customer support, operations, etc.

      And Tesla owners don't need Tesla's permission to put their cars on these apps, they own the cars.
      May 13
  • Quantcast HEE468
    OP
    Oh shit! Uber is at $37! Maybe not many employees can afford the Tesla I thought they could :(
    May 131
    • Google AI Snot
      There are some e-Bikes deals for $37/month
      May 13
  • Facebook public2
    When did uber stop providing huge monthly uber credits for employees? Uber employees only need a car for track day and you don't want a heavy ev for track day.
    May 121
    • Right. And as more populations move into metropolitan areas, the demand for car ownership will decrease. Instead, public transport, scooters and bikes will take over.
      May 13
  • Cisco Lkng4rnwjb
    I see Tesla is far ahead in the autonomous game. The reason being Tesla own end to end entity means car (all mechanical stuff) , software , hardware , maps , information infrastructure means car connected to internet through its at&t partnership. All other autonomous competitors are mainly software companies trying to align with other car vendor so to align software with mechanical maneuver means aligning specs of each other which Tesla doesn’t face. Also we have seen Musk achievement in space He started so late in space but now he is at Par with NASA ( I might be wrong but that what I read from internet )
    May 121
    • Cruise Automation sl1msh4dy
      Obviously i may be biased, but GM Cruise has its own hardware too and a production line in Detroit ready to pump out AVs.
      May 12
  • Google AI Snot
    With the way the stock is dropping, a Kia may seem more viable than a fully-loaded Tesla.
    May 130
  • Intuit tgfi
    Tesla will do it. Just not on Elon’s public timeline.
    May 120
  • Ok, not buying Tesla, thanks!
    May 120
  • Uber UFHRCJ
    We can’t afford Teslas at $37 so jokes on you.
    May 151
    • Quantcast HEE468
      OP
      Hehe I bet many of you can still afford :) Also glad to see the stock bounce back today.
      May 15

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