Do you think Auto Industry has a future? What does the future look like for companies like Ford and GM? Would it be wise to change companies now given the unstable future of the auto industry?
Depends. What's your position?
You guys are the forefront in my belief. I’m not a Tesla fanboy persay, but I do think auto has been severely held back by the incestuous nature of OEM good ol’ boys and appeasing NADA.
I think it can be perceived as being unstable or can be anybody's market for the taking with AV and EV. Depends on if you want to be safe and jump industries or hold on for the rough ride to see if it's worthwhile holding on.
Tech > Auto
I think every other established oem is wondering that too. Boomers, tech normies, and every OEM loud mouth I’ve met that acts like they are Elon but have no where near the net worth; they all will answer different. In all seriousness, most companies are playing with the idea of autonomous driving and the appeal that AI generates among consumers. Couple this with the cyclical popularity of certain design styles, oems will eventually need to be able to tailor just in time manufacturing to the consumer in a way that satisfies their wants and the production capabilities/cost
Companies that are diversifying in automotive will be fine.. GM, BMW, Mercedes, VW... they are all trying all sorts of business models and getting away from the traditional model of.. i sell you a car you drive it for a while you sell it and I sell you another car.. instead companies listed above are trying.. car share liki cars2go, investment in online car selling companies like carvana, creating a platform for autonomous driving like Cruze automation and sharing resources like Bmw and Mercedes.. GM and honda in Cruise... you will see more innovation in the next 5 -10 in this industry then the last 100 years combined. So is there a future in automotive.. you bet there is.. now the question is which pony are you riding and what are they doing.. can they adapt and diversify fast enough? Or do they give up and sell and merge.. like FCA and PSA.. you will see more partnerships and consolidation because there are so many different avenues and business models at once like autonomous driving, direct sale, electric cars, hybrids and hydrogen cars that.. one single company cannot manage all the challenges at once and if they want to survive then they better have a stake in all of them because no one know what will win out at the end... hope that helps!
The tier 1 suppliers are giving leading indicators to where this industry is heading.. you are already seeing major companies like Continental Delphi Honeywell autoliv spinning of legacy divisions to either raise more capital or preparing for future mergers.. As BMW said above.. there is only so much R&D budget and you have to use that to not only launch new models but also find ways to work on electric hybrid technology for autonomous driving etc and no one company has that much dough.. in summary more partnerships mergers and acquisitions.. eventually lesser employee count.. but I see bigger impact to blue collar than white collar in the long run
Read up on PPE. When Audi and Porsche reverse engineered a Tesla, they were shocked at how advanced the tech was. Which made them join forces to build PPE which they are open to sharing with other automakers. But they are still lagging behind their schedule. Audi e-tron, which has the MEB tech, costs were 3k euros more which did not make the production profitable at scale. What I see in the future is Tesla will continue being the apple of cars and other OEMs will share some base critical software and technology, making them resemble the Android of cars. They are also faraway in terms of making batteries at scale, but Tesla is ready to sell those to other automakers as well. I'm sure the old boys club will not go for it. To top it off, they suck at making software and their processes just aren't quick/agile enough for them to change soon enough. It's going to be an interesting decade to live in regardless.
I don't agree with that.. battery is not where it will end.. it will have to end at hydrogen or other fule type that is not as destructive and a rare element.. this just a step to the future. Like the steam engine before diesel. Also I don't agree with oem are bad at SW.. look at cruze a company that came from GM. Tesla will challenge the current market and honestly has a head start but no on has cracked the fully autonomous cars yet and it will take another 20-50 years for the infrastructure in developing countries to catch up. So globally Tesla won't dominate.. i can see Tesla becoming more like a ipod. It changed the industry but it also kicked off innovation for other companies and opened opportunity for startups and new players while pushing OEM to evolve. Tesla can also continue to evolve and keep changing and challenging the market but even they will have to change.
Hydrogen is actually more destructive in terms of the overall carbon footprint since it's primarily coming from LNG not to mention all the energy lost due to a poor, inefficient conversion to power. And you're assuming that the current battery tech will remain the same which couldn't be further from the truth with billions being poured in R&D each year to rely less on minerals such as cobalt and lithium with new cell chemistries. And regarding GM Cruise, it was acquired by GM a few years ago. GM didn't start it. And if you really think it will take "20-50 years" for FSD to catch up and developing countries to implement it, you clearly haven't been paying attention... and what "infrastructure" are you talking about with regard to FSD? You just need new cars equipped with sensors and FSD hardware+software.
While I can not afford an electric car, I am enjoying 140 years of engineering and excellence in combustion engine, and I am sure I won’t be alone in the next 2 decades.
As long as I keep working on software that has transferable skills to other industries, I don't really care LOL. Can't predict what will happen 5, 10 years from now. Despite what Trump is trying to roll back, I believe electric will be more popular and I believe GM will be a big player since we invested earlier than other OEM in EV and self driving cars... GM also has a big investment in Lyft. So in case ride share eats into personal vehicle industry, we'd make money there too... So that's a good hedge. China is also big in EV and GM has a big presence there. Despite the strike, our Q3 earnings was great, so the brand is still good. Otherwise I'd have one foot out the door LOL.
Yes. Doing that.