What do you think will happen to UBER after ipo?

Google Bill Bezos
Dec 30, 2018 85 Comments

Do the needful below or kindly revert back ASAP in comments.

Edit:
(My opinion)

So, isn't lyft eating up ride shares?

Why would I use Uber eats? There's Postmates, Doordash, eat24, Amazon restaurants and many more. Some of these are subscription based and low cost. They all deliver to the door, rather than some grumpy Uber driver waiting outside my apartment.

The only hope is self driving cars. But waymo and others will prove as a very strong competition.

I still don't see future potential for Uber. Correct me if I'm wrong. Usually there is a strong base business model, then the company diversifies. But for Uber, Lyft is a threat to that model in the US. There are other regional players all over the world.

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TOP 85 Comments
  • LinkedIn Shape of💩
    Basically if you think Uber will be successful don’t comment on this thread cuz OP already formed her opinion and also sounds like a real hater
    Dec 30, 2018 6
    • Google Bill Bezos
      OP
      If you think it will be, I'll ask you why and we'll have a discussion.

      If you're too arrogant to answer or can easily get triggered, ignore this post like 💩 suggests to do so.
      Dec 30, 2018
    • Microsoft heirisa
      OP needs to fuck off he sounds like a fucking hater
      Dec 30, 2018
    • Uber aNft74
      Doesn’t matter what OP thinks. I’ll still be a multi millionaire 😆😆😆😆
      Dec 30, 2018
    • Google Bill Bezos
      OP
      Yup, me and 51% people on the poll.
      Dec 30, 2018
    • Uber aNft74
      Can’t wait to buy my first house! 🙂🏠
      Dec 30, 2018
    • KPMG qtAi02
      Uber all the way
      Jan 1
  • Lyft isn't eating up ride shares, they're barely holding on to their share and spending more per dollar earned than Uber.

    Eats is growing extremely fast and already profitable.

    Waymo will need time to catch up on the market share due to the sheer size of Uber.
    Dec 30, 2018 14
    • Google Bill Bezos
      OP
      So are drivers for Lyft.

      You clearly didn't read the entire post. Read it again, twice this time.
      I thought we were talking about self driving taxis and how waymo could compete in the future.
      Dec 30, 2018
    • So? Lyft isn't "eating up" ride shares like I already said. They're just holding on.
      Dec 30, 2018
    • Uber zlJT78
      Lyft gained 2% market share this year after a huge hit to Uber’s brand and spending more money for the revenue. And that comes with some qualifiers - that increase is only for ride share in the US. Internationalization isn’t trivial from a business or technical perspective.

      On top of that, volume of rides with Uber is magnitudes higher. Lyft hit 1 billion lifetime rides this year while Uber hit 10 billion rides before that. Uber does some multiple of Lyft’s lifetimes rides each year. It’s not a given that Lyft will be able to increase their volume orders of magnitude.

      Uber eats is doing very well. Look up market share - depending on how you measure it they now have 20-25% of the food delivery market after launching less than 3 years ago.

      Not trying to be rude, but your arguments lack numbers and are reductive. Of course you can use Postmates or Doordash, but they haven’t grown nearly as fast as Ubereats in the same time period. Why is Lyft a threat to Uber’s business model in the US? They have the exact same business model, just better PR. Just mentioning that there exists competitors has no bearing on how the business is actually doing.
      Dec 30, 2018
    • Google Bill Bezos
      OP
      Alright let's do numbers:

      Uber has 65% of ride share market in the US. Lyft has 35% and growing fast.
      In India, Ola has more market share.
      (45% vs 35)
      In China, Didi (80% +) has butt raped Uber. I think we all can agree.
      (World's three biggest markets)

      For food delivery 45% share is with GrubHub. More than 20% with Postmates and Doordash (this one will grow fast).
      Uber has 25-28% roughly.

      Waymo (Google is AI powerhouse) will eat Uber alive as far as technology is concerned and can partner with Lyft.

      Now, as an investor I would be worried. Investments are done talking into account company's future growth.
      Dec 30, 2018
    • Uber zlJT78
      For Lyft/Uber US market share, depends how you measure it. Recent analysis have said Lyft has 28%. Its definitely not growing fast and it’s hasn’t been easy/cheap for them to grow however much they’ve grown recently.

      For Uber/Ola, that is correct, but Uber isn’t in nearly in as many cities as Ola so there may be some low-hanging fruit for Uber there.

      For Uber/Didi, yes but Uber owns a decent chunk of Didi now.

      For Uber/Grubhub, Grubhub has majority share in the US but just look up a graph of market share and you’ll see how quickly Ubereats has gained 20-25% of it. Doordash is growing fast but so is Ubereats, so I’m not sure why you’re giving Doordash a positive for fast growth while ignoring Ubereats success in this regard. On top of this, Ubereats is global while the rest are only in the US.

      For Waymo vs Uber, it’s my belief that self-driving tech good enough for consumer use on a big scale is at least 10 years out so there is still a lot of room and time to grow.

      Again, this a bit reductive as it doesn’t tell the full story. For example, just because Ola has more market share than Uber doesn’t mean that Uber is out of India. It doesn’t explain the difference or outlook of the future for both companies.

      It feels like you’re turning positives of Uber into negatives and are unnecessarily negative, but that may be both of our biases at work.
      Dec 30, 2018
    • Snapchat spectaclez
      You forgot Brazil, which is a big point of contention.

      Uber can always sell or partner with companies as it has done - pick its fights wisely, as it has the luxury of doing so (since it expanded so quickly early on).

      The reason Lyft exists is because of Uber. Lyft was never meant as a overtake of Uber (although it CAN happen, it’s not very likely. You already got a preview of that in 2017, how Lyft fucked up so many opportunities to overtake Uber but didn’t). I’m thinking the closest analogy would be Intel vs AMD but in a much shorter time cycle

      As an investor, I would far more likely short Lyft above a certain threshold and either go Long on Uber or just not touch it. Uber can probably justify a 80Bn valuation but Lyft probably couldn’t justify a 20Bn valuation based on profits.
      Dec 30, 2018
    • Microsoft / Eng Tier 1
      ^this

      It’s a winner take all market.
      Dec 30, 2018
    • Twitch / Ops emo
      If it’s truly a winner take all market, then Amazon will eventually crush everyone because 45% of all online purchases originate with Amazon. In that POV, Uber’s success is only temporary while they validate the market exists.
      Dec 30, 2018
    • Microsoft / Eng Tier 1
      By the time amazon is interested in entering it’ll be too late.
      Dec 30, 2018
    • New DuQvV7x
      Its not a winner take all market.

      It’s in Uber’s interest to ensure Lyft survives.

      Reference legislative oversight on monopolistic practices even when the monopoly is accidental.
      Dec 31, 2018
  • VMware BobbleHat
    Uber is actually the only tech company i personally give money too... so ya, i think they will be successful.
    Dec 30, 2018 0
  • Apple / Data Warcraft
    My opinion:
    1) Uber vs SNAP: Snap was a fad, and is not dominating any market. Uber provides real service for the real needs, destroying the taxi industry with a more efficient solution, like E-commerce destroying brick mortar store. I myself have used Uber/Lyft many times and will never use taxi again.
    2) Uber vs Lyft: So far Uber is the market leader (65%). Like Amazon in E-Commerce, AWS in Cloud, Oracle in Database, Google in Search and Facebook in Social Network; As long as this market grows, the leader position has a lot of advantages. (The only exception Apple, which does not dominate any market except iPod). Lyft is good too, but it is hard to play catch-up.
    3) Self Driving Car: It is at least 10 years for Self Driving to be a real threat. ML has its own limitation, and cannot do everything.
    4) Uber Valuation: The 120B tag is insane. (30B - 50B for current Uber is more reasonable.) However, if Uber can keep its market leader position and turn cash positive, it has the potential to grow like Amazon (I think in 5 years, it could grow to 100B to 200B).
    Dec 30, 2018 6
    • New monomo
      Don't bother, op is a big fool
      Dec 30, 2018
    • Snapchat spectaclez
      Isn’t Uber only bleed $ because of its wasted efforts on expansion? So as soon as they pull back to core markets and more profitable products/service like UberEats, they can crank out billions of net profit? (That shouldn’t take 5 years to reach a justified 100BN valuation). But investors would have to be okay with a high PE ratio like 40:1 or something. (Which they tend to do for new tech companies anyways)
      Dec 30, 2018
    • Google Bill Bezos
      OP
      I think everyone is burning cash (Uber, Lyft, Postmates etc) . Uber is burning cash too, at $600 million or so per quarter (900+ in q3).

      They're trying to pull off a "Amazon" and I think it won't happen.
      Maybe Yes, if they would've IPOed under Travis. Competition is closing in now and you're trying to sell a platform which is still burning cash/not profitable. And you're not the only platform now.
      Dec 30, 2018
    • Uber 5b
      Op, will lyft succeed? Share your opinion pls
      Dec 30, 2018
    • Snapchat spectaclez
      Yeah Travis getting kicked was kind of a tragedy. I sometimes wonder if the board members set up that “tragic boating accident” with Travis’s mom. The timing seems a little tooooo coincidental.

      Uber with Travis (and plus one other sanity check) would have been unstoppable
      Dec 30, 2018
    • Uber wants you to think Uber stumbled. The fact is, Lyft has a better public culture and IMPROVED the service A LOT in the past 2 years, and is growing faster on Uber's home turf.
      Jan 4
  • Uber / Eng random333
    Uber ride share is still strong, Uber Eats grows exponentially. I think capital likes what they see
    Dec 30, 2018 10
    • Google Bill Bezos
      OP
      So, isn't lyft eating up ride shares?

      Why would I use Uber eats? There's Postmates, Doordash, eat24, Amazon restaurants and many more. Some of these are subscription based and low cost. They all deliver to the door, rather than some grumpy Uber driver waiting outside my apartment.

      The only hope is self driving cars. But waymo and others will prove as a very strong competition.

      I still don't see future potential for Uber. Correct me if I'm wrong.
      Dec 30, 2018
    • Intel ascii:
      I used DoorDash, Postmates and Ubereats, and am going to stick to Ubereats. Doordash and Postmates charge these hidden fees (service fees and low-cost order fees) apart from delivery fees, that’s not shown initially while picking a restaurant, but is silently added in the final cost. I end up paying $16 for $10 food including tips which I feel is ridiculous.
      Dec 30, 2018
    • Google Bill Bezos
      OP
      You tried using their subscription?

      I get it delivered on menu price + tax + tip.
      It's pretty cool. Restaurants with unlimited logo next to them have no service fee too.

      $9.99/month for subscription. I think they have recently revamped the subscription and many people are using it now. Service fee was ridiculous earlier.
      Dec 30, 2018
    • Snapchat spectaclez
      If anything, Amazon is the biggest competitor. As you mentioned so yourself - it’s “subscription”

      Why would I pay $10 for a monthly service just for food when I can potentially get that as part of a Prime package, or even as a cheaper subsidy for regular Uber rides?
      Eventually subscription services are best used by platform businesses where they can just lob in packages services.

      I think while DD, postmates are very solid, they will eventually run into hurdles
      Dec 30, 2018
    • Google Bill Bezos
      OP
      Huh? Amazon restaurants charges you delivery fee on top (after your prime membership). Uber charges you $4.99 per delivery. That's why.
      Dec 30, 2018
    • Snapchat spectaclez
      Sorry, lemme back up. I haven’t used amazon restaurants. My guess is that they can maybe move into a better subscription model later (maybe offer a flat rate subscription add-on for restaurant and grocery or something)

      I think Uber charges 4.99 for further distance ones. Restaurants close by are cheaper, like 1.99. (I figured eventually Uber could also move towards a subscription model too, once there is enough demand. And at their scale, they can undercut DD and postmates)

      I’m also assuming the DD and postmates model aren’t self sustaining? Like they either charge the restaurant extra $ (while Uber eats prolly doesn’t), or they are only able to offer that low of a monthly rate for now (while remaining private and under VC care for a while).

      But of course, a lot could happen, so who knows 🤷‍♂️ . Companies fuck stuff up all the time🤦‍♂️
      Dec 30, 2018
    • Google Bill Bezos
      OP
      I think everyone is burning cash. Uber is burning cash too, at $600 million or so per year.

      They're trying to pull off a "Amazon" and I think it won't happen.
      Dec 30, 2018
    • Intel ascii:
      I used DD subscription, and it works only if you order food worth more than $15. I don’t cook and order food from out on a daily basis, and that’s very inconvenient for me. Also Uber charges me $1.49 for delivery, same as DD, with no extra charge if I order less than $10. So what I get for $11.49 in Uber, I’ll have to spend $15+ in DD.
      Dec 30, 2018
    • Snapchat spectaclez
      I agree. I don’t think they’ll be able to pull an Amazon either. I think that’s wayyyy too much of a stretch. But I think they can comfortably justify a decent valuation size, one that is not likely to be disrupted by either Lyft nor Waymo. If anything, my bet is that the disruptive will come over the years in alternative modes of transportation. Once aviation, underground, hybrid scooters... mature, then Uber is more likely fucked by that. They will just completely miss the wave.

      I think Uber’s cash burn is more than that per year. But that’s because of crazy expansion dreams, which can easily be dialed back

      Core services like ride share, fleet, freight, and Uber eats ... etc are still profitable.
      Dec 30, 2018
    • Uber / Eng random333
      Simple term - international. Lyft has no international market while Uber and Ubereats has done nicely in many places like South America and ANZ
      Dec 30, 2018
  • Facebook
    Instagrаm

    Facebook

    PRE
    Google, Microsoft
    Instagrаmmore
    There’s no future for Uber unless they introduce a self driving taxi, and finally build a new cool office with real free food.
    Dec 30, 2018 2
    • Google Bill Bezos
      OP
      Yup. Even for self driving taxis they have a lot of competition.

      Eg: waymo and Lyft can team up etc.
      Dec 30, 2018
    • Google Bill Bezos
      OP
      Me? This is my first post on Uber.

      250k for l3 is lowballed?
      Dec 30, 2018
  • Genentech / Eng ratsey
    “I don’t use uber or uber eats so the company must be on the brink of a downward slide” - OP
    Dec 30, 2018 0
  • New monomo
    OP is foolish to think UberEats is falling behind.
    Dec 30, 2018 0
  • This comment was deleted by original commenter.

    • Uber xxvegas
      Google absolutely can build a social network!
      Dec 30, 2018
    • Google Bill Bezos
      OP
      We can exchange hyperboles all day long or we can talk facts.
      Uber is not even worth $100 billion yet. So waymo can absolutely crush them as far as self driving tech is concerned. Alphabet has money, brains and years of research.

      Read the entire post again.
      Dec 30, 2018
    • Microsoft / Eng Tier 1
      I like Uber but Uber eats really sucks. I don’t want to go down to the sidewalk.

      Grubhub ftw

      There’s no way Waymo is going to beat Uber. Google has never understood consumers well.
      Dec 30, 2018
  • Uber / Eng cztH52
    Uber is international. And internationalization is harder than you think
    Dec 30, 2018 0
  • Uber iptw
    Where does op get this info from that UberEats isn’t growing? From his bit of frustration that he has to come down from his apartment?

    https://www.businessinsider.com/uber-eats-is-the-fastest-growing-meal-delivery-service-2018-4
    Dec 30, 2018 4
    • Google Bill Bezos
      OP
      Typical Uber customer service. Mock the customer. Keep that attitude and Lyft will crush you.

      Postmates and Doordash are still new and growing. GrubHub dominates that market currently. $5 per delivery for Uber eats, won't last long.

      What I'm saying is there is no core business which is leading and dominating for Uber.
      Eg: Google has search and ads, Amazon has retail and aws, fb has social network etc
      Dec 30, 2018
    • Uber iptw
      You basically made a provocative thread filled with diatribes against Uber and posed it as a question of “what do you think will happen”, what did you expect for responses?

      Must be pretty triggering to see people (from all companies) with different opinions from yours, huh?
      Dec 30, 2018
    • Google Bill Bezos
      OP
      Provocative thread?

      All other comments and discussions have been healthy. You're the only moron who got triggered. It's not a decisive poll (51 vs 42), look at the results.
      Out of the positive comments, all are Uber folks (1 VMware and 1 Airbnb)

      If you can't take public criticism, better start doing it. You're about to go ipo. Keep this attitude and it'll be a disaster.
      Dec 30, 2018
    • Yes Doordash and Postmates are growing so quickly!! Hope they IPO so I can invest!
      Dec 30, 2018
  • Uber / Eng
    @w@

    Uber Eng

    PRE
    Capital One
    @w@more
    I'm ex-Postmates. Eats is a much stronger business. Postmates suffers from toxic executive management and shit reactive execution.
    Dec 30, 2018 0
  • Airbnb
    jim.hodlen

    Airbnb

    BIO
    kindly doing the needful
    jim.hodlenmore
    I will buy and hodl
    Dec 30, 2018 0
  • Uber sAyg52
    Eats will deliver to your door. 😐
    Dec 30, 2018 5
    • Google Bill Bezos
      OP
      Drivers wait outside apartment complexes (in Seattle). I have to go down 7 stairs.
      Dec 30, 2018
    • New monomo
      It's the driver's problem and you need to report that.
      Dec 30, 2018
    • Google Bill Bezos
      OP
      Seattle folks, what do you think? Do drivers park and come up?

      For me and people I asked, they don't.
      Dec 30, 2018
    • Microsoft / Eng Tier 1
      Eats will? Since when? I thought the whole points of Eats was that since they don’t have to park and come to your door, they can be much more efficient.
      Dec 30, 2018
    • Uber sAyg52
      My app has a “deliver to door” option when I press the address in the cart view.
      Dec 30, 2018
  • Uber eqat78
    I was indifferent towards Uber before joining the company. Now, I have some positive feelings.

    1. Uber grew more than 30% YoY at this size.
    2. UberEats alone grew at 200% YoY.
    3. Uber is expanding into other transportation verticals and making bold bets.

    I think Uber really is in a unique position. Some tend to discount Uber's position in the market with some arguments like Lyft can replace Uber or Waymo can disrupt the market with its self-driving cars. I think those arguments are heavily based on developers' thinking, underestimating operations necessary to run such business. I think some of those arguments are also coming from thinking from a very Bay-area perspective. Remember that consumers outside of Bay area don't resemble consumers inside that much...
    Dec 31, 2018 0
  • Uber 5b
    Self driving car is not a real concern in five years; market financial crunch is a big concern due to huge loss; price will drop 30-40% after ipo; then climb back slowly.
    Dec 30, 2018 0
  • DoorDash ajlX64
    DoorDash is about the same size as Eats in the US but growing 65% faster.
    Dec 31, 2018 4
  • New monomo
    Why does UberEats exist?
    It is the most penetrative and the most powerful food delivery service in the world. It backs on the Uber logistics platform that has millions and millions of drivers to use at it's disposal. Frankly, companies like Doordash are a big joke. It's funny you somehow thought drivers on other platforms work better than Uber drivers, they're all the same.
    Dec 30, 2018 0
  • Google Bill Bezos
    OP
    I've edited the post and added my opinion.
    Dec 30, 2018 0
  • Vlocity FTJU
    What about cruise? Are not they planning to launch their self driving cab fleet pretty soon? That is going dent both uber and Lyft...
    Dec 30, 2018 3
    • Hard to launch a fleet when each car is 200k+ and still needs an assistant
      Dec 30, 2018
    • Facebook noogler7
      LIDAR getting a lot lot cheaper than used to be. A decent L4-autonomous car should be around $50k range. Cruise is owned by GM - so manufacturing would be less hassle (compared to Waymo or ATG) once the tech is mature to go for mass production.
      Dec 30, 2018
    • Vlocity FTJU
      Honda has invested in them too. Looks like they are gaining some confidence.
      Dec 30, 2018
  • Uber 5b
    Op, what are the reasons snap cannot make (enough) money? Then how about Uber? If you can share thorough thoughts about the differences, your opinion will be more credible.
    Dec 30, 2018 1
    • Google Bill Bezos
      OP
      Read the comments, too much info there.
      We can then discuss on your opinion of those comments.
      Dec 30, 2018
  • Pinger / Eng create💻
    Very much like SNAP imo... once they IPO, they'll have enough cash for 2-3 years of operations. They will be hesitant to shut down any one of their money-losing businesses or regions because the investors will take that as bad news.
    Dec 30, 2018 1
    • Google Bill Bezos
      OP
      ^^^^ Exactly this.

      I'm still not convinced that any of Uber's businesses have future potential.
      Dec 30, 2018
  • Uber 5b
    Op, what do you think of Lyft’s future?
    Dec 30, 2018 1
    • Google Bill Bezos
      OP
      Honestly, in this ipo show-down can't say for sure.
      Ultimately, both are ride-sharing platforms going public. As an investor I might very well say "80-120 billion valuation is too much. That includes food delivery, freight and self-driving research though. However, I don't see a future in those and other companies are already doing better (GrubHub, Amazon and waymo). Let me focus on ride sharing and invest in Lyft. It's only $15 billion valuation, has potential to grow and can be taken international. All that needs sorting out is current operations. I see more my money's worth".

      Ultimately comes down to ride-sharing as a platform, I think.

      Could go either way.

      Uber should've IPOed under Travis.
      Dec 30, 2018
  • Isn't doordash the one that's paying people to line up and make orders at the restaurant to bring to the end user? Or is that a different one?
    Jan 1 0
  • Facebook noogler7
    Just to add some points, isn’t Nuro going to (almost) kill all food delivery business in few years? IMHO this start-up, founded by 3 Waymo veterans (all played at L8 roles), has shown much capacity with a very lean team, compared to ATG. They focus on last mile autonomous delivery - admittedly the receiver will have to come downstairs to grab the food, but it’d be simply a lot lot cheaper (by law of physics, human labors can’t be cheaper than machinery at its perfect execution). Waymo and others will come to compete though, but they get first-mover advantage.

    On other side, those who think Lyft’s Level5 self-driving tech is as mature as Wamo/ Cruise/ ATG, have no clue how far Lyft is lagging in that race.
    Dec 30, 2018 0
  • Based off these poll results, they’ll probably be sideways 6 months after IPO. There isn’t a general consensus here.
    Dec 30, 2018 0

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