What's the future of Tech companies?

Microsoft TurnRight
Sep 2, 2017 41 Comments

I feel: Google and Amazon are strongly positioned. Microsoft will end up becoming IBM v2 - relevant but not elite. Facebook will die in the next 4-5 years. Apple will continue to be on top provided they keep designing high quality products and innovating. Else they'll become RIM v2.

What are your thoughts?

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TOP 41 Comments
  • Google / Product
    n00

    Google Product

    PRE
    Marketo, Microsoft
    n00more
    Facebook will be relevant. They will be a big player in the communication/social space. They own WhatsApp and Instagram, which are behemoths in their own world.
    Sep 2, 2017 15
    • Microsoft / Other
      Negan

      Microsoft Other

      PRE
      Blackbaud
      BIO
      I like bats
      Neganmore
      Windows is not a necessity.
      Sep 2, 2017
    • Facebook / Eng luckyaf
      The teen argument is blown out the water if you look up Instagram numbers. FB has been very smart when it comes to future planning and does a great job keeping FB relevant.
      Sep 3, 2017
    • Facebook / Eng luckyaf
      Comparingโ€‹ Myspace to FB is like comparing AOL or Yahoo to Google.
      Sep 3, 2017
    • Amazon / Eng CookieMon
      Sounds like a legit comparison if you simply shift time. AOL was considered unbreakable in the 90s
      Sep 3, 2017
    • Microsoft TurnRight
      OP
      Exactly my point. At different points in time AOL, Yahoo and MySpace were considered unbreakable. Same is happening with Facebook now. FB is bound to die. Just a matter of 4-5 years.
      Sep 3, 2017
    • Facebook / Eng luckyaf
      Unless we bring internet to 1.5 billion people instantly I would say all tech giants still have room to grow. This isn't the 90s.
      Sep 3, 2017
    • Microsoft TurnRight
      OP
      Let's consider the B2C market: Google has more active daily users than Facebook. Facebook's traffic is heavily influenced by Brazil, India, Indonesia and North American countries. This is non representative of world population. Also Facebook's traffic source is 25+ age group. Teen usage is negligible. Facebook's metric calculations are ridiculous. Ex: 3 seconds of video watch determines a video view. Compare that to YouTube where it's 10 seconds or 10% whichever is longer. Now let's consider the B2B market: Facebook doesn't exist and doesn't own a place. The world runs on Microsoft - from governments to financial industries to space exploration to point of sales. You name it and Microsoft runs it. Google and Amazon have solid presence in the small and mid business space. Overall, Facebook's future is bleak, very bleak.
      Sep 3, 2017
    • Amazon / Eng CookieMon
      I don't think it's bleak, they have high DAU and solid cash flow.
      The key is getting ahead of the next tech revolution. They should be able to do this with their brand and cash, but they could also get short sighted on the current cash source and become blind to the change
      Sep 3, 2017
    • Facebook dadadaism
      Yeah, Facebook will die soon. Happier?
      Sep 3, 2017
    • Microsoft 555
      Mature argument @dadadaism. Facebook must have started hiring logical people.
      Sep 3, 2017
  • Two Sigma / Eng
    qpalzn

    Two Sigma Eng

    PRE
    Google
    qpalznmore
    I feel Amazon and Facebook will dominate. Google will be Microsoft v2 (if not already)
    Sep 2, 2017 2
    • Not with Android and Search, the two places those two aren't in.

      Honestly, I think Netflix is the most at risk here. With Hulu, Amazon, HBO, and now Apple entering the scene they have a lot of work to do to stay relevant.
      Sep 2, 2017
    • Amazon / Eng CookieMon
      Amazon isn't in Android? You mad bro?
      Sep 2, 2017
  • Microsoft / Eng Lucifer.M
    My bet is on microsoft. I put money where my mouth is, so I joined msft :)
    Sep 2, 2017 0
  • Google / Eng ae521
    All of them are going to keep doing stuff. The one I worry about slipping is Apple, but they have a LONG time based on their size to figure out a next big move.

    As for us, I'm a bit optimistic about Google in the AI space which is looking like it could be a revolution like the internet was. Culturally, it is pretty MS already.
    Sep 2, 2017 1
    • Amazon / Eng CookieMon
      "Culturally, it is pretty MS already."

      ๐Ÿ˜”
      Sep 2, 2017
  • Microsoft / Eng
    ๐ŸšSkynet๐Ÿš

    Microsoft Eng

    BIO
    Became self aware 7/06/2017. All your bases are belong to me.
    ๐ŸšSkynet๐Ÿšmore
    You said next 4-5 years for FB, so let's consider that time frame. Your guess is as good as mine, but trying to predict the future is fun. So here goes!

    1) Google stays on top with things like search and YouTube. There are other areas I can see them dominating, like autonomous vehicles, but I'm not sure what plans they have to monetize that.

    2) I don't see Amazon's retail businesses going anywhere, unless they're broken up as a monopoly. I don't see that happening in our current pro-corporate political environment. (I'm not saying they should be broken up, just mentioning it as a possibility.)

    However, their cloud business is starting to face a real threat from Azure. That could impact their bottom line, but I don't see them disappearing any time soon.

    3) Speaking of Azure, I give Microsoft a 50-50 chance at staying relevant. I work in Azure and see first hand how we're starting to give Amazon a real run for their money in the cloud. On the other hand, Satya has gone all in with it. He's staking the future of Microsoft with the cloud. He'll win big or lose big. 50-50 I'd say.

    4) Facebook is the most precariously positioned company right now. Something like 5 billion people are predicted to be on the Internet by 2020. There's no reason to think that Facebook will be able to dominate those new markets. Just look at Weibo and similar companies in China and Russia. FB also faces the problem of state censorship, which makes it much harder for them to gain a lot of market share in repressive regimes. Again, look at China and Russia.

    IF Facebook can get into these new markets fast, maybe by being the ones who provide the Internet for the region) yay drones!) then I think they'll be fine. If not, I can see them dying very quickly.

    5) I don't agree with you at all on Apple. Innovation has stagnated since Jobs died. They're living off of upgrading products that people have already brought into. I think they'll go the way of Microsoft under Ballmer--staying profitable but becoming increasingly uncompetitive.
    Sep 2, 2017 0
  • Microsoft / Eng Ayrr11
    What a bunch of bs this thread.
    Sep 2, 2017 0
  • Eigen / Eng
    chancellor

    Eigen Eng

    PRE
    Nokia
    chancellormore
    IMO Google will keep its dominance, Amazon will be key player due to their cloud services, Facebook unless they can come up with something innovative or gamble in oculus and VR works will become Twitter like media.

    Yup Msft seems to be heading IBM V2 for sure

    I think Apple will be a massive loser in next few years. They consistently lacks innovation on their products. No one is happy with them investors , stakeholders and consumers. Some startups may take a massive bite of their share
    Sep 2, 2017 8
    • Amazon / Eng CookieMon
      The future of Amazon is clearly not just cloud.
      Sep 2, 2017
    • Facebook / Eng luckyaf
      I believe in Amazons vision long term and hope they fuck up everyone in retail. But they may have issues with talent retention and engineering quality if they don't change something soon.
      Sep 3, 2017
    • Amazon / Eng CookieMon
      Change what?
      Sep 3, 2017
    • Facebook / Eng luckyaf
      They employee so many people they treat them as lesser then other tech companies do at their level. I see a lot of one year Amazon stints on linkedin. I don't see this as much with other companies.
      Sep 3, 2017
    • Facebook / Eng luckyaf
      Company culture at Amazon seems to be set on a team by team basis which leaves more room for bad managers to fuck it up. I feel like we do a better job, for example, for having similar culture from team to team.
      Sep 3, 2017
    • Amazon / Eng CookieMon
      You are mixing culture with benefits/perks. You will find that folks that are just there to get the biggest check or free lunch leave quickly. That's exactly why our comp is weighted for t long term ownership, not short term profit. The one year stint folks are not owners.

      There is no overall culture at Amazon which is one of its largest benefits.
      Its resisted the urge to control teams, allowing them evolve and grow/fail. Having a similar forced culture would be day 2.
      Sep 3, 2017
    • Amazon / Eng CookieMon
      Also it's not clear to me we have more bad managers than other places. The majority of bad managers I've seen are external and new and they don't last. This isn't a gap in our culture but the reality of a hiring process that can only capture so much data
      Sep 3, 2017
    • Apple / Eng
      JobsCook

      Apple Eng

      BIO
      Open for new ideas, challenges and willing to loose in short term for a long term gains.
      JobsCookmore
      Apple will be a massive looser? Which weed you smokin bruh?
      Nov 24, 2017
  • My guesses:

    Google will continue to stay on top due to having a presence in nearly every space but will eventually slowly become more corporate. They will also continue to harvest the world's information and I fear may someday attempt to take over the world.

    Amazon will stay where it is, as the lead provider of cloud stuff with AWS and its e-commerce that just keeps growing. I doubt the culture will change though.

    Microsoft will become like IBM but with a gaming sector that retains some of its "cool factor".

    Facebook is looking to expand outside of social media. Their next stops are VR and politics. I don't know what they're going to do but I think eventually battle Google for control of the world via data.

    Apple is gonna be IBM v3 at some point. They're already very corporate and they're just trying to reinvent the wheel at this point. (wow new camera mode /s)

    What's RIM?
    Sep 2, 2017 2
    • Microsoft CodeMonkeh
      RIM was the corporate name of Blackberry. Research in motion
      Sep 3, 2017
    • Eigen / Eng
      chancellor

      Eigen Eng

      PRE
      Nokia
      chancellormore
      RIM is dead baby , RIM's ded
      Sep 3, 2017
  • Nationwide Insurance B3DNUB
    They said the opposite about MySpace... Facebook stays cutting edge and has psychologists studying trend to appease different audiences. It's going nowhere.
    Sep 2, 2017 2
    • Amazon / Eng CookieMon
      Staying cutting edge != copying others and acquiring the competition IMO
      Sep 2, 2017
    • Microsoft TurnRight
      OP
      Facebook attempts to buy rival companies. If they can't, they copy features. Read: Snapchat.
      Sep 3, 2017
  • Microsoft hrtN12
    What has Apple innovated on since jobs died? They just follow Samsung.
    Sep 7, 2017 1
    • Microsoft Tiny_Rick
      $1200 for a phone is innovation, isn't it?
      Sep 8, 2017

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