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TOP 93 Comments
- Also Rubrik! Although I’m a bit biased, from the growth I’ve seen internally and externally I’m pretty confident about 10x growth over the next 3-5 years :)
- I’ve been at Palantir since before it was a unicorn. Even if Rubrik were to 10x, it would not be worth as much as my Palantir equity would be if I sold today 2nd market. Rubrik only gives 0.02% equity for current offers at senior level. Other startups give 2x+ that and can potentially go much higher than $10B.Mar 2, 2018 3
- Mgmt 🐒🐔🦁 tmoreI am starting one in few weeks. Valuation starts at 300$ but huge upside potential. 10x in a year for sure.
- Robinhood easily. They will 10x in < 2 years. They will probably 20x before IPO.
There is basically a war going on among fintech apps to capture the millennial generation. So far Robinhood is very far ahead, and their growth rate is increasing. Over the next couple decades, wealth from the baby boomer generation will be flowing to the millenials. And the millennials are on Robinhood, not Schwab, E*TRADE, Betterment, etc.
- My second tier bet would be Lyft or Flexport.
Lyft: The ridesharing market is huge and growing. It is not a fad, it’s here to stay and there’s basically no way for the industry to fail. Lyft has its foot in the door early, and if it can hold that position it will 10x. But, everyone is dumping money and talent into self driving cars, and everyone wants a slice of that pie. It’s really unclear if Lyft or Waymo/GM/others will come out ahead here. I really doubt it will be a multi player market like the auto industry. No one wants 5 apps that do that same thing.
Flexport has a shot at being a revolutionary player in a massive market. There haven’t been any new freight forwarders in decades. But, they are basically slogging through mud to try to automate everything. It’s not a tech company; they have to figure out how to slowly and surely replace manual workflows with software. It’s going to take time, and there is some competition coming. New startups have emerged doing similar things, and Amazon is a potential competitor as well.Feb 28, 2018 3
- Uber 🍳,🌯,🍕Palantir, everyone working there seems to love it.
Edit: sorry, I forgot the sarcasm tag. I've never heard anyone talk about palantir as a good employer.
- The commercial side of the business is very big now, they don’t just do gov work. The company has a lot of VERY talented and smart engineers (though it does lack some industry experience / wisdom at times), but I wouldn’t say it’s the place to go if you want to get rich. Rather, if you really want to beef up your tech skills.
- Crypto isn’t dying but two points:
1) A Lot of competition is coming. In 2016 no one cared about crypto, there was no money in it. In 2017 it blew up and many of the exchanges weren’t prepared, and consequently many users had bad experiences, and now Coinbase has a bit of a bad rap. It was also the first time exchanges were able to make 500 million or 1 billion off their 0.25% fees in a year. But everyone knows that now, and everyone wants to get in on it. Market makers / hedge funds are beginning to support crypto. No one knows what the landscape will look like in 2-3 years, but i think the 2017 gravy train will be over pretty soon. (Example: Look at Robinhood instantly swooping in with 0% fees)
2) Crypto has failed to show any usefulness as a currency. It’s only currently useful as a commodity to speculate on. Everyone is obsessed with blockchain, but let’s be honest: we’re all programmers here. A distributed transaction log is cool but not THAT cool. Nothing cool has come out from it in the past 5 years, and although there are a lot more people looking at it now and trying to build stuff, it’s anyone’s guess where it’s going to go and who will profit from it. Basically what I’m saying is: the crypto industry is in major flux, and it’s pretty hard to say that coinbase’s business model is going to be useful in a couple years.
- @Faaa it’s useful because it’s a commodity, like Gold. When’s the last time you purchased anything with Gold? Often times (mainly older folks) might have some bars of it or so because they know it has some intrinsic value and may increase in time as it gets more rare, since there’s a fixed amount.
- Gonna be a contrarian on Robinhood. When millennials age and have more wealth, paying trading commissions will not be a big deal. Also as users get more sophisticated with investing they will realize that active trading is a fool’s game when you have no information advantage. And index funds are free to trade at most brokerages.
Would love to see a cohort analysis of how long users stay with their platform before dropping out.
- This is not a very scientific way of thinking king about it. Look at it this way:
- Brokerages / Banks are historically a very sticky industry. People don’t move around much.
- There is already a huge market for stock trading. The fact that most people do better in index funds doesn’t really matter. Demand has always been there, and continues to grow
- Millennials are not interested in the established brokers because they were build 20 years ago, have horrible old UIs, and can’t really innovate and deliver new features. If you want concrete data: Robinhood already has more users than E*TRADE. Millenials want crypto trading, not ultra advanced charting features. Robinhood consistently delivers exactly what its customers want - this is not a strategy that will result in people leaving the platform
- I just looked up E*TRADE’s 10-K. Commissions represent less than 20% of their total revenues and it’s dropping. So I can foresee a day when they decide to drop commissions entirely, undercutting Robinhood’s key differentiator.
Pretty UIs are not that hard to build. It would not take much for E*TRADE to simplify their user experience to match Robinhood.Mar 1, 2018 3
- If pretty UI's were so easy, then why does most financial apps suck at it?
It is true they can cut off commission trading, but it's going to depend on executives with principles to do so, while sacrificing their large bonuses and backlash from shareholders. They'll need a CEO like John Legere of T-Mobile, who had such distaste for the industry and was hell-bent on changing it.
- Uber has some growth potential if they keep behaving. Airbnb is garbage. Instacart just got shit on by Amazon acquiring WF. Facebook and Google are great places, but probably not going to grow huge amounts in short time. Stripe has potential. Not too bullish on Databricks. Open door has lots of potential. Pinterest, twitter etc are tapped out. Agree with others Robinhood is looking really intriguing.
- Another reason for Robinhood is that they are not bleeding money. Look at all these startups that go public while having negative profit (Box, Snap, Spotify, Dropbox). They survive from VC capital from the onset and become gluttons. Robinhood is very close to being profitable NOW, while they are still early stage. This is key. The founders are finance guys.
- Some of these have a tiny chance of making it there, but none are actually likely.
Uber maybe has the biggest chance if they can win the autonomous transport war