Yet another data point about the housing

Facebook cynical.ly
Oct 24, 2018 23 Comments

It's getting fun to watch the deniers come up with excuses for every data.
* This is seasonal.
* This does not apply to Bay area
* This time it's different
* It's supply constrained, not an indicator of market softening

Any others?

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New-home sales declined at a faster-than-expected pace in September. Sales of new single-family houses fell 5.5% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted rate of 553,000, according to a release Wednesday from the Census Bureau. This marks the weakest rate since December 2016. Consensus estimates among economists polled by Bloomberg anticipated a decline of just 0.6% month-over-month. The median sales price decreased 3.5% year-over-year to $320,000. Home supplies at current sales rates rose to 7.1 months, or the highest level since March 2011, from 6.5 months
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sp-trades-lower-boeing-lifts-dow-140722413.html

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TOP 23 Comments
  • Cisco ChecksOut
    ^ people who bought at the peak
    Oct 24, 2018 0
  • Proofpoint / Eng foodtruckj
    When young americans are in long term high interest rate debt from student loans, how can you ask them to buy homes? Home affordability goes down for them.

    On the other hand, legal immigrants don't have any stability on their future here in the US and want to buy homes but can't due to an attack on legal immigrants.

    A good % of buyer driving costs high were Asian foreign investors in bay area buying homes to park money. They did the same thing in Vancouver, Canada.
    Oct 24, 2018 5
    • Google AI First
      Federal law should ban nonresident purchases of US real estate. Get fucked, Chinese investors.
      Oct 24, 2018
    • Intel GNUtella
      ☝️I like how you think and I have Chinese ancestry
      Oct 24, 2018
    • Google AI First
      To be clear, my position isn't driven by anti-Chinese animus. They're just the most obvious example of egregious real estate speculation in this bubble. My position would apply to any and every nonresident. (So in my universe, sorry for losing your winter homes, Canadian snowbirds).
      Oct 24, 2018
    • Intel GNUtella
      Yeah. Like the 20-something Chinese kid in FB who used his parent's money to pay $2M all cash for this dump in Sunnyvale.

      https://sf.curbed.com/2018/3/2/17073100/silicon-valley-house-home-sunnyvale-record-price-crisis
      Oct 24, 2018
    • Aurora bystander!
      @ai-first : White House called, Stephen Miller is looking for an anti-immigration aide... you can literally write that law yourself.
      Oct 24, 2018
  • Microsoft gfba68
    I don't think you understand what any of these I datapoints actually mean, and that's why you are confused. Sales of new homes != price declines. In fact it is usually correlated with the opposite. The stock market cares about new home sales specifically because there are a lot of homebuilders and ancillary companies that are publicly traded and this impacts their earnings directly. 7 months of inventory is normal, although the inventory is still much less in markets like Seattle and SV
    Oct 24, 2018 4
    • Facebook cynical.ly
      OP
      > Sales of new homes != price declines

      Thank you for crapping your knowledge on us, O wise one!
      I know it's too much to expect people to click through and read the link, but I don't realize people would not even read the fucking extract pasted right in the article. Here, let me paste the relevant sentence and hope that is not too long for you ADHD kids:

      The median sales price decreased 3.5% year-over-year to $320,000.
      Oct 24, 2018
    • Microsoft gfba68
      You know that median sales prices don't measure actual housing values, don't you? What homeowners care about is "does this mean my house has decreased I value?" The answer is no, it doesn't. That's what I'm referring to when I say you don't understand what this data means. Stick to writing code and leave the serious stuff to the adults.
      Oct 24, 2018
    • Facebook cynical.ly
      OP
      Median home prices don't measure actual house values? I didn't know that. Fuck my stats course and let's fire all the data scientists.
      Of course, this doesn't reflect YOUR home price. Your home is unique, it's not like 99.99% of houses out there.
      Oct 24, 2018
    • Microsoft gfba68
      it doesn't reflect values of ANY house because it tracks sales price and not home value. The type of house on sale at any given moment makes median sales price a volatile metric and disconnected to actual home values.
      Oct 24, 2018
  • Facebook cynical.ly
    OP
    Yes, I am happy to see this sellers market take a pause. It's not just the rocketing prices, or bidding wars. I was uncomfortable with writing "No contingency" bids. But the worst has to be writing cover letters and making up bullshit emotional stories to purchase something while paying more than a million bucks.
    So, I'm happy to see some sanity return to the market, where a buyer is not treated like crap with 2-day deadlines, and people buy because they want to live in it rather than flip it.
    Oct 24, 2018 0
  • Aurora bystander!
    You have us all convinced. Should we all panic, sell homes, rent, bow down to your factual data point collection skills?
    Oct 24, 2018 4
    • Qualcomm qxyz
      How is Aurora? What do you do?
      Oct 24, 2018
    • Aurora bystander!
      I am biased. Aurora is awesome.
      Oct 24, 2018
    • Google AI First
      If you bought multiple investment properties with dreams of charging huge rents and capturing surging prices; if you bought a house simply to flip it; if you bought a house to hold onto, not even living in it, hoping the price would go up; then here's what you can do:

      You can get fucked.
      Oct 24, 2018
    • Aurora bystander!
      Quite testy!
      Oct 24, 2018
  • New DuQvV7x
    It must be draining living in a place where you shit/splooge your pants on every housing related story
    Oct 24, 2018 1
    • Intel Ttl
      Lol
      Oct 24, 2018
  • Microsoft Khfdtgv
    Interest rates go up, housing price increases decline.

    This should have happened years ago as the housing market was over heating.
    Oct 24, 2018 0
  • Intel BK'sBoyToy
    I'm cool with another crash so I can dump one of my houses that is almost paid off and upgrade to a better location. Thank you Trump for the trade war blocking Chinese speculators and the Fed for raising interest rates. I'm a Democrat, but probably will hold off on voting against Trump for this. MAGA.
    Oct 24, 2018 0
  • Amazon / Eng jNeo42
    You think you’re only taunting the “deniers”. Remember there’s still a fuck-ton of us renters, still on the sidelines with cash, who want to believe it’s true. Quit being so one-sided with these combative posts.
    Oct 24, 2018 0