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Airbnb seems likes the only unicorn I see that can reach a $1 trillion marketcap. Rough numbers are $40b gross bookings $5b revenue $1b profit My reasoning is simple. Network effect and a likely monopoly. High margins. Travellers are going to spend more on airbnb than almost any other tech company. And the amount of adoption that remains is insane. It’s still early. I’ve spent more on it over 6 years staying at mostly average cost resorts and cabins, than any other thing in my life except rent. Even with regulation, the addressable market is going to stay huge. The margins are going to remain high. Travel is opening soon and it’s a more digital world. 60% of my portfolio is ABNB. I plan to hold for 10 years. I’ll pass on the diversify advice. I’m looking for things I’m missing about the company Thoughts and call outs? EDIT: I think people are overestimating regulation risk because most government would love the economic effect of local airbnbs. The risk comes from vested lobbying groups like Hotels and Condominiums. In general, Airbnbs are ridiculously good for local economies because they turn unproductive assets into revenue, which is tourism $ (the best kind). And the money is given to usually middle-ish income groups, who then have more impact on local economies than corporate hotel profits. I do think this “distributed hosting model” wins over hotels long term and Abnb is likely going to be the unrivalled king. (An easily replicated company doesn’t get to $100b without an even half-decent competitor. If the risk was competition, there should atleast be hints of it by now) TC 320k YOE 5 The figure that blew me away: Airbnb had 326.9 million nights booked in 2019.
Keep dreaming 😴
Sounds sweet but what are the possible cons?
That’s what I’m asking about. Regulation, competition, overblown publicity over safety. An accident in a motel won’t even make the news but if someone gets hurt at an airbnb it will be all over
Regulation is definitely a thing, Airbnbs are driving housing up in a lot of major cities. This hurts the poor and middle class that can't afford their first home, because sellers would rather rent it out
For me, it is CCIV that will reach $1T in 10 years.
Most companies at $1T completely dominate an industry. I don’t see that happening with CCIV AT ALL
Yea only thing that would happen is EV manufacturers eating into each other's market share, only a certain amount of cars the world needs
If that was the case why do you think top management at airbnb left the company ? Airbnb will be big but i wouldn't feel comfortable going 60% in on it. Going 60% on bitcoin makes sense to me
I’m in bitcoin as well, but I expect more risks with that
Interested in learning how did you concluded top management left the company ? All founders are/will be with company, CTO, CFO, CIO and many others are here. Directors are not top management . Only shocker was president but it was kind of mutual as his plan was scaling into hotels more, while company shifted towards core hosting again.
Wow. You have strong conviction on this stonk
As a host I despise Airbnb and hope there is an alternative at some point
OP’s the new /u/DeepFuckingValue
No way.
Airbnb needs to diversify for it to reach trillion dollar valuation
You mean more than petting zoos and cooking classes?
Maybe there’s some room in the food delivery space, I don’t think anyone has tried that lately.
Why any other hotels did not reach those massive revenue multipliers? Comapare to revenue of other hotels and its mkt cap. Fair to say that hotels own assets and airbnb does not and its a software company. Said that I feel safe with max PE30 and that should be decent mkt cap bet.
I’m not saying Airbnb will reach this cap but Airbnb has the advantage of no overhead costs taking care of the residents like hotels do
Airbnb can scale way better than any hotel, and their fixed capital cost is lower. Their investment is in the network of millions of airbnbs. Most motels and bouquet hotels are on airbnb now