Analysis of the impact of HR1044/S386 to Rest of the World, and what can you do about it? The purpose of this thread is to discuss the impact of HR1044 on immigrants from the Rest of the World excluding India. This thread is not created for the purposes of discussing the merits of this bill. What is HR1044: Removes country of birth cap and defaults to sorting by First Come First Serve in the employment-based green card category. How many Indians are stuck in the backlog?: As per Kevin Yoder's speech in congress, as many as 1 million Indians are stuck in backlog Refer to the video below @1.26 (see citation below) I pulled figures from USCIS site and backlog for India EB2 is 433k & EB3 is 115k. I used the same figures that were quoted by CATO institute(see citation below). Since it is possible to upgrade and downgrade from between EB2 and Eb3 I will bundle them together = 433 +115 = 548 k The number 548k only includes the primary applicants from India and does not include family. I used a multiple of 2.1 to average out for primary petitioners, spouses, and dependents. Total # of Indians in backlog = 548 *2.1 ~ 1.1 Million. Total available visa under EBI and EB2 ~ 80k. Under a FCFS system assuming the ROW is current only Indians would get green cards for 1.1 million/80k ~ 13 years. This is consistent with what USCIS officials have said in the article below that ROW will have to wait for 10+ years.(see citation below) This is also consistent with Stuart Anderson's article that says “within 5 to 7 years after the transition period ends under the bill, the entire employment-based immigrant backlog that existed as of the date of enactment likely will have ended” The transition period that Stuart is referring to is 3 years. I have deliberately excluded EB1 because wait for EB1 is only 4 years even for India. as of July 20109 Impact to ROW: According to my analysis, ROW would have to wait more than 10 years for the backlog to clear before anyone else can get a green card. Most people who apply for employment-based green cards are already here either as students or working under OPT, work Visas etc. This will have a huge impact to their plan if they intend to stay back in the united states. Impact to China: Currently, China is backlogged to 2016 in EB2 and 2017 in EB3. Post HR1044 their wait will increase by at least 5 years till the India backlog is cleared. This means if the current wait for Chinese Eb1 and Eb2 is 5 years, post HR1044 that wait will increase to 10+ years. For Chinese EB5 investors, they are currently processing 2014 applications and no other country is backlogged, so I estimated post-HR1044 EB5 will become current. Compared to status quo Chinese applicants will always see an increase in wait time regardless of what employment category they apply. Chinese Eb5 investors will become current if HR1044 becomes law. What can you do it about it: Call your senator, it is a simple and easy process. There is no wait, you can call your senator in your morning commute and leave a message that you don't support the bill. If the senators realize there is sufficient opposition they will debate the bill more and add amendments. Yes, anybody living in the country legally can call their respective senator. Instructions are included below. Reach US senators by calling 202-224-3121. Ask the operator to connect you to the individual office. https://www.senate.gov/senators/How_to_correspond_senators.htm Citations 1) Video of Kevin Yoder https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1OlyKA5MHtI 2) https://www.cato.org/blog/150-year-wait-indian-immigrants-advanced-degrees/ 3) Uscis official confirms 10 + year wait https://tennesseestar.com/2019/07/10/commentary-conservatives-and-labor-unite-against-h-r-1044-green-card-expansion-bill/ 4) Stuart Anderson HR1044 article with calculations. https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2019/02/15/bill-aims-to-end-decades-long-waits-for-high-skilled-immigrants/#758e1dcd7b85 5) Visa bulletin https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2019/visa-bulletin-for-july-2019.html
Call your Senator to support the bill!! Can't believe people are adopting and promoting such blatant discrimination against one Nation's people.
I am trying to clear the misinformation surrounding this bill, as I have said above this is not a post to debate the merits of the bill. This is a post to inform the ROW on the impact of this bill so that they can do what they need to do.
Ending Apartheid and Segregation had some de-merits to the privilege of white people. So you would have been against removing them as well then ?
India currently gets more than 17% of the greencards even though it is only 17% of world population. It's ALREADY fair.
A US citizens’ view: Assuming whatever you have said is correct, the Indians waiting in the Queue have waited for a longer time than the people from rest of the world. If congress passes a bill to not fast track people from certain low demand countries and rather put all EB immigrants in one queue for each EB type, it is only fair for all the immigrants. I don’t view Indians as one entity, they are just individual people who are my co-workers and they got the job as individuals, not as a bunch. I have co-workers from different parts of the world and I would only hope they get best and fair treatment from US immigration irrespective of where they are from. So what you are asking is implicitly racist. I would rather call a senator and support the S386 bill.
As a Canadian currently residing and working in USA, I completely agree with this. stuff like Indians vs row is implicit racism.
I (a Chinese) want the best for my Indian brothers and sisters 100%, but other ethnicities’ interest shouldn’t be harmed b/c that’d be racism to ROW
Once again, the objective of this post is to clarify the actual impact to ROW. I seen a lot of comments by Indians saying that the impact will be a few months to 2 to 3 years, this is verifiably false, yet some people continue to peddle the same lies. The have even started a petition bundling Indians and Chinese together when this bill simply does not help Chinese! It’s of paramount importance for students, researchers, IT workers from ROW to understand what is at stake for them.
I notice that you don’t point out, without these bills, Indians would effectively have a wait time of 70 to 100 years just using your own math. Basically effectively shutting down Indian employment based immigration altogether.
How is it shutting down Indian emp based immigration ? Every year around 25k Indians get emp based GC, more than any other country in the world. I have also pointed out that the solution to a problem should not be to spread the problem around. Ask for a small carve out to for merit based fast track GC for countries that are backlogged, Trump would love to support you and it would be good beta for his points based immigration proposal. All this could have been easily discussed if Indians and IV did not simply try to censor opposing voices on blind and elsewhere.
@belleseat. I disagree. This is just a topic that triggers you for some reason. Clearly it triggers others in the opposite direction. Either way, this topic has been discussed over and over again. It’s technically a troll post because you’re doing it to get a rise out of people.
Don’t worry it’s never gonna pass. Even if Rand Paul removes his objection and it gets pass in Senate, Trump will veto it as he wants to push his merit based immigration (which doesn’t exist yet). PS - Indian here waiting for PERM to get filed and I don’t care whether it gets passed or not. Before anyone trolls, here is my reason: Current State : Will never get GC. Work for few years - earn and cherish life (instead of wasting my energy to get GC) If it gets passed : Still will not be seeing GC in next 10 years. So again will be stuck in limbo Now Important part - TC or GTFO
Trump might not veto. Not a good idea to fire against bipartisan support. On the other hand, the bill will not get to floor vote without some underwater consensus from Trump. Senators aren't stupid.
I think if this bill gets any serious traction, it will end up the same way as CIR of 2007. Americans all over have a favorable view of immigration but don't like those who break the rules. When they grasp the full impact of this bill, they will start calling their senators and this bill will be dumped for good.
TC:210
This is a long post for a non issue...
It’s a very imp issue for lots of people.
As number of green cards are not going to change (Both democrats and republicans will oppose this), how you will solve this problem so that it will have least impact to others? I guess instead of removing the country cap, below can be proposed for win-win situation (again not ideal but will have some pitfalls): 1. Do not count dependents towards EB green cards Or 2. If someone is waiting for more than 5 years for priority date to become current - provide EAD
Also create sep lines for docs, all the ideas above seem reasonable
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The community should get to decide what stays and goes. We don’t need heavy handed moderation by an overlord. That goes against the spirit of Blind. This is a daily post for you.
It is not community when the platform is vulnerable to abuse by a few users. It is not like a panel is reviewing it. Let’s say there are two parties with different opinions in the country. When one side kidnap all of the people on the other side, what happens? If there is no law or police around, will it function fine? There is only a single voice. That is not a decision by community.