Autonomous Vehicles- Bubble
There are easily 15+ startups in this area, with some prominent big tech companies and almost all big car manufacturers are into this..is this a bubble ? Resonates similar to clean tech bubble of 2010..who will succeed ? Who gets crucified ? Thoughts
I would say bubble in the short term—next decade—but surely promising for the long term timeframe. It has promise, but needs infrastructure improvements, and regulatory support to be viable for implementation.
100% agree. Big big bubble here.
Yes, it’s bubble. Everybody is trying to get some share but this space is really limited. Acquisition window is also small as some biggies have already acquired and others developing their own teams. Ipo chances are too slim and possibility of success is low considering competition
It’s totally BS the way marketing defines it. However, when pursuing an obviously unrealistic goal often there’s a useful byproduct, e.g. there will be a achievements in sensors, onboard computers, better navigation systems, etc.
I want Samsara to crush onward.
They don't got our maps... They so behind !
AV can be a multi-trillion dollar market in 10 years. Here's one report saying this from McKinsey, multiple other people think the same https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/the-automotive-revolution-is-speeding-up The market is efficient. Given current information, our best guess is that AVs will be huge. CleanTech turned out to be a bubble, but only in hindsight. There are plenty others that looked like bubbles but turned out to be huge. Social Networking, Cloud, E-commerce, Ride Sharing. If you think AV is a bubble, talk to some AV startups. I did. Got hard data which explains all the investment pouring in.
Im actually quite close with those buzzword and pioneer people. The VP of autopilot on computer vision in Tesla. He left as I think he knew how impossible to meet the requirements above L4 in sight able years. The fundamental computer vision problem is not solved even in theory though big progress in AI in general in last five years. Maybe AV can go success in some limited areas like trucks. But even that it’s not that close yet.
Even it’s not a bubble, it’s years away for sure. I guess 6 years at least. Most startups are focusing the core algorithms, which doesn’t cost that much, so they can sustain with the funding until the big environment is ready. Those who rush to commercialize, that costs a lot more and they need huge money, so far I think only Waymo and Cruise are seriously doing it. It needs people to work on all aspects to make it drivable on the public road even in hacky way. Operation costs are huge.
Same as o2o in 2015, ar/vr at 2016, blockchain at 2017. Just another rabbit hole in 2018.
What’s o2o
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