The market is now definitely cooling down.
Especially in Fremont and East Bay area.
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comments
- There is a significant outward migration since 2020 from the Bay (salary weighted), specially since remote has become a big part of the tech industry.
- New employees prefer to stay in their respective states and get a pay cut (my stat. sig. observations from interviews)
- Prices in many places in the Bay already dropped back to 2017 EOY https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/520-Pine-Wood-Ct-Los-Gatos-CA-95032/19667269_zpid/ , https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4130-Williams-Rd-San-Jose-CA-95117/19604344_zpid/ and many disillusionzed folks are selling within a couple of month with a loss.
- Wildfires are becoming more and more real. 3 biggest California wildfires happened in the last 4 years. One month a year the choking smoke covers the Bay (specially in the late summer early fall when people would like to rest and relax). Thus the weather is not much a thing in the Bay anymore.
- There are many hubs popping up with a more relaxed culture who are also immigrant friendly, let's say RTP, DC, Nashville, etc. Thus the immigrant friendliness is not the California thing anymore.
So to sum up. Though California is great and I personally love it, I dont think the prices are justified anymore. There will be a 10-15% correction in the short term and a long flat trade in the future.
Agree on net migration outside the Bay.
Still huge misbalance between supply and demand, and net migration doesn't make up for it.
You forgot a bunch of factors that work in favor of Bay Area prices like inflation, buying from international and funds, school quality, job availability, salary levels etc etc.
Big. Little under 1400sq ft