Thinking of trying to get in Airbnb SDE before its IPO. Blind and Levels.fyi suggest RSUs for my target level (L4) are 3000-3500, which would worth 360K to 420k with current valuation (35B).
What is the real valuation of this company by the time of its IPO (possibly Q2/Q3 2020) considering they haven’t raised any new money in 2 years? What is the internal concensus on how the stock will rise or fall in the next four years? How heavy should I discount its valuation if I ever get comparable offers from other companies?
Current TC @ Zillow seattle: P3 192K
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Levels.fyi - Compare career levels across companies
comments
How many trillion dollar companies has SV produced? More than 1? No
Startup valuations are a big fat lie.
Startup valuations are a big fat lie.
Startup valuations are a big fat lie.
When people give a "valuation" for a not-traded company, they are dividing the price-per-share of the shares the last round got, by the fraction of the company those shares represented. But not all shares are equal, so that division makes no sense.
Unless you're getting the same Series F Preferred Double Secret Bonus Shares that the last round of investors got (spoiler alert: you ain't), that "valuation" is completely and utterly bogus.
You can assume Airbnb is "worth" at least ~5B... because that's how much some shares of it have already sold for. But that 5B already belongs to other people! I'd value your RSUs at no more than the paper they're written on. Okay, maybe $10-20 a share. Certainly not $100+. And don't forget to divide by the 4 year vesting schedule: after IPO, refreshers are likely to drop quite a bit, since then the company is actually paying something for them.