Coronavirus math

Amazon
otte

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otte
Mar 13, 2020 62 Comments

It takes 16 to 20 days from infection to death, call it 18 days, during which time the number of infections will increase by 8 fold (cases double every six days).

Assuming a 1% death rate every death implies there were 100 cases at the time that person got sick, which during that time period have grown 8x to 800 cases now.

We have had 40 deaths which implies we had 4000 cases 18 days ago and 32000 cases today, an increase of 28000. We can expect 280 deaths in the next 18 days.

20% of cases require hospitalization so in the next 18 days Coronavirus patients will also need about 6400 hospital beds.

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  • Intel
    apajdn

    Go to company page Intel

    apajdn
    The 40 deaths figure is where the numbers get thrown out of whack since most of those are from a single nursing home cluster. Math looks a lot different if you count those as 1.
    Mar 13, 2020 1
    • Amazon
      otte

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      otte
      OP
      22 are from the Life Care nursing home. If you count them as 1 we had 19 deaths, 1900 cases 18 days ago, 15200 cases now, 13300 new cases and can expect 133 deaths in the next 18 days and a need for 2660 hospital beds.

      Better, but not that much better.
      Mar 13, 2020
  • Apple
    ijyA68

    Go to company page Apple

    ijyA68
    We know from Dr. Fauci’s Statement in MSNBC today that Trump’s travel restrictions put us “ahead of the curve” on preventing an influx of cases from Europe where the borders are open.
    Mar 13, 2020 25
    • Apple
      ijyA68

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      ijyA68
      It took you all day, but you finally admit that “goodness” will come out of closing the border to Europe. You might be recovering, ever so slightly, from a serious case of TDS induced statistical malpractice.
      Mar 13, 2020
    • Amazon
      otte

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      otte
      OP
      A rounding error will come of it. Nothing matters unless we deal with domestic transmission.
      Mar 14, 2020
  • Apple
    ijyA68

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    ijyA68
    What are your assumptions about the activities of infected people who spread the virus in your model?
    Mar 13, 2020 16
    • Amazon
      otte

      Go to company page Amazon

      otte
      OP
      You'd have to learn to count to ten first
      Mar 13, 2020
    • Amazon
      otte

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      otte
      OP
      Here is a specific prediction for King County:

      32 deaths but we'll count Life Care as one, so that's 11 deaths, implying 8800 cases currently in King county, resulting in 88 deaths. That includes the 11 so expect to see about 77 additional deaths in King County in the next 18 days. There will be about 1700 hospitalized which will really push beyond the limits of the hospital system here as there are only 5200 beds in total in the Seattle area and they get used for other things.

      And for California:

      California had 1 death five days ago implying the state has 800 cases. That's a total of 8 deaths, of which one has occurred, so expect 7 over the next 18 days with around 160 hospitalized.

      These are baked in at this point--cases of infection that occurred before the new measures were implemented but which haven't been reported yet. We will see if the new measures help.
      Mar 13, 2020
  • Amazon
    StonksGo⤵️

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    StonksGo⤵️
    Adding to that in the modern era we have even better distribution methods. As vectors of infection increase it becomes easier to see how it can reach more people. For example same day and 1 day delivery.
    Mar 13, 2020 0
  • Amazon
    dr-karo-na

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    dr-karo-na
    You ignored new remedies being enforced
    Mar 13, 2020 1
    • Amazon
      otte

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      otte
      OP
      No I didn't. None of those existed 18 days ago. Those will control whether current 32000 cases keep on doubling every six days. The math in post 1 describes what's already baked in before those measures were imposed.

      If you count Life Care as one case then it may be 15000 current cases instead if 32000. Either way, that's what's already happened and the new measures will impact what happens next to these numbers.
      Mar 13, 2020