Fintech startup vs Upstart offer comparison

Hey all,

Hoping for some opinions on two offers I received recently. One is with Upstart, the other is with a fast growing series C fintech startup. They came out to:

Upstart: 170 base + 15% bonus + ~$80k RSU per year = ~ 280k TC
*Edit: Upstart also includes a 20k signing bonus which is pretty nice
Startup: 200 base + ~8k options per year

The startup hasn't raised in several years, but the strike price is around $2. What's making the decision harder, however, is that they estimate that the stock will be worth roughly 700k when fully vested. So IF this is true, the TC there comes out to $360k-ish which is pretty substantially higher BUT is based on some assumptions related to their performance etc the next few years.

I think I was hoping for another 20-40k a year from Upstart, but their stock has been doing really well and it feels like they still have room to go up. I think if I were to look at the value for each right this very second, Upstart is worth more and is more liquid. But the startup probably has more upside. Would love to hear other opinions!

Waiting on feedback from Square this week and one other fintech company. Feels like Square could probably beat Upstart's offer if I get positive feedback, but don't want to make any assumptions.

I should also mention that I live in Austin and intend to stay, so that does limit me somewhat - no Bay Area FAANG compensation on the table other than those that allow remote.

Current TC: ~180k, YOE: > 7

Edit: As a quick follow up, I blew off final rounds for Amazon and Apple because I'm located in Austin and it doesn't look like either of them can really get much above 250k here as they scale pay down so significantly. Was that a mistake? I'm sure I could go back and continue the process with either if I wanted.