H1-b Transfer - LCA Odds of Denial

New / Eng
deeprocker

New Eng

BIO
BS in Robotics Eng (US), MS in Data Science (US Ivy League)
deeprockermore
Feb 27, 2019 60 Comments

UPDATE: Guys I would like to apologize for the misinformation I provided yesterday. It was not intentional, the data (link provided below) is there referred to as H1b program data and description field for Case Status is given as "Status associated with the last significant event or decision. Valid values include “Certified,” “Certified-Withdrawn,” Denied,” and “Withdrawn”." Those statuses and cases I checked also synced with H1b websites such as :

-https://h1bdata.info

So I presumed that the dataset case statuses are for H1b. Based on the numerous feedback I received in the comments, I am convinced that this is only for the LCA stage of H1b process, not the final H1b. I contacted USCIS for the dataset, if they provide one, I will create another detailed post. (I have been researching since yesterday to find the dataset). So far I only found statistics by top 30 employers in the US which I will post in another thread.

---------------------------
Hi Guys,

I have been reading lots of posts recommending not to join on receipt. BAL lawyers (for Google) are giving me a 6-10 month timeline for approval. They don't expect another USCIS announcement for PP soon (by soon I mean ~2-3 weeks, this is the difference between 1st announcement on Jan 25 and 2nd on Feb 15) for apps filed after Dec 21st. They speculate that USCIS to wait until after cap season to fully reinstall PP but again no guarantee. So the approval process is really too long.

So, I downloaded the public data from

https://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/performancedata.cfm

I pulled some helpful statistics for those who are considering to join on the receipt. [Please don't be confused by USCIS's quarterly report (attached, that 27% denied category includes withdrawals), actual denial rate is much much lower]

For an H1b visa transfer (not new or amendment), for a full-time role, for an employer headquartered in the US (so excluding some of these Indian Consulting Firms), the odds of denial and sample size in 2018:

- Total: 1.17% - 110,863
- Facebook: 0.67% - 1,039
- Apple: 0.72% - 975
- Amazon: 0.47%- 1,905
- Netflix: 0% - 141
- Google: 0.77% - 1,431
- Microsoft: 0% - 1,287
- Airbnb: 0% - 109
- Uber: 0% - 353
- Lyft: 0.58% - 171
- Oracle: 0.47% - 632
- LinkedIn: 0.34% - 298
- Square: 0% - 46
- Stripe: 0% - 21
- Vmware: 0% - 136
- Doordash: 0% - 29
- Salesforce: 1.42% - 353
- Postmates: 0% - 13

- Job Title "software engineer": 0.85% - 14,999
- Job Title "engineering manager": 2.23% - 224
- Job Title "analyst": 1.03% - 14,845
- Job Title "product manager": 1.83% - 984
- Job Title "program manager": 1.20% - 832
- Job Title "consultant": 0.75% - 9,911
- Job Title "developer": 0.92% - 17,188
- Job Title "data scientist": 0.90% - 781

Note: Job title rates are not based on exact match, if the title contains those strings, it 'll be counted (e.g software engineer, logistics will be counted).

I hope this info helps for those who are still looking for a way out :)

PM me for the code for those who want to do their own ad-hoc analysis.

H1-b Transfer - LCA Odds of Denial

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TOP 60 Comments
  • New conga
    Amazing! Thanks for this info deeprocker 🙌
    Feb 27, 2019 0
  • McKinsey 131111
    Did you use the LCA H1B data and calculate #Certifications to total filings excluding withdrawn application? If so, this data is invalid. USCIS processes approval/denial for H1B while Labor department certifies or denies LCA. We won't get H1B approval odds from LCA data
    If you were able to correlate LCA filings for a year vs H1B approvals from USCIS, can you please share the source for H1B data? Thanks!
    Feb 27, 2019 3
    • New / Eng
      deeprocker

      New Eng

      BIO
      BS in Robotics Eng (US), MS in Data Science (US Ivy League)
      deeprockermore
      OP
      Thank you for pointing out the mistake
      Feb 28, 2019
    • McKinsey 131111
      Thanks for clarifying! The 2018 top 30 company data shared by USCIS can be helpful here. You will see that approval odds are pretty much as high as what you pointed out for tech companies. However, it would have been interesting to see approval odds by job role.
      For Tech - New applications had 1.7% rejections in 2018 and 1.5% of Continuing applications were rejected
      v/s for Consulting - 37.6% of new applications and 20.6% of continuing applications were rejected
      Google, Facebook had best odds with <1% applications rejected in 2018; Apple, MSFT and Amazon were around ~1.5% and Cisco at 2.1%
      Feb 28, 2019
    • New / Eng
      deeprocker

      New Eng

      BIO
      BS in Robotics Eng (US), MS in Data Science (US Ivy League)
      deeprockermore
      OP
      Yes i actually shared that top 30 data in another post, did not want to crowd this one. Meanwhile i requested raw data from USCIS hopefully they ll provide that
      Feb 28, 2019
  • OP, i think the data you are using is basically extracted from icert portal? I think that data only tells about lca is certified or denied right?

    Does the lca status also change to denied when h1b is denied?

    I was reading H-1B_FY19_Record_Layout file for the meaning of columns and i did see case status tells about the last significant event or decision.
    Feb 28, 2019 2
    • New / Eng
      deeprocker

      New Eng

      BIO
      BS in Robotics Eng (US), MS in Data Science (US Ivy League)
      deeprockermore
      OP
      I am kinda frustrated with the ambiguity around this. I saw the exact same thing before this analysis - case status says the last significant event so I presumed (even though it is LCA data but labeled as H1b data) that it was H1b decision. Websites such as https://h1bdata.info and http://www.myvisajobs.com/Reports/2019-H1B-Visa-Category.aspx?T=ST both use the same language/visa status when referring to H1b (4 main categories: certified, certified-withdrawn,withdrawn and denied). So I am going to label this post as LCA decision I guess, any ideas?
      Feb 28, 2019
    • Lumeris Squee20
      Deeprocker - Agreed! That helps with the ambiguity! I'm sure the h1b status numbers are much more dire.
      Feb 28, 2019
  • Microsoft naaam
    Very good analysis sir. I think all said, for legit jobs in respectable companies, the process may be slow but still not bad. The ones feeling heat are the bodyshop companies.
    Feb 27, 2019 0
  • Microsoft TonyShark
    I want to make you the top contributor .. because you are
    Feb 28, 2019 0
  • Apple zeo meo
    What do you think of my case?
    Bachelors in electronics - india
    MS in CS from USA
    Transferring to one of the other FAANG's

    current role same as new role: Sr. Software Engg

    Do anyone of you think I should worry?
    Feb 27, 2019 4
    • New / Mgmt
      deeprocker

      New Mgmt

      BIO
      BS in Robotics Eng (US), MS in Data Science (US Ivy League)
      deeprockermore
      OP
      Noone can guarantee you that you won't get a denial, especially after I saw that post about the guy who got a denial for an eng manager position (moving from FB to Uber) and he had an MS in CS from Stanford. But, the goal of this post was to show that it is not that terrible as it is thought in most Blind posts. I would still talk to your hiring manager and recruiter to see if there is a backup option in case of denial (like sending you to Canada, UK, etc while refiling/appealing) - which is what I did - still waiting for an answer. Does anyone know Google's policy on this?
      Feb 27, 2019
    • Apple Faangonly
      thanks for the insight!
      Feb 27, 2019
    • Yelp Rsqx75
      @deeprocker Your numbers above have 0% rejections for Uber but someone on blind posted about a transfer rejection with Uber?
      Feb 28, 2019
    • Yelp Rsqx75
      I guess it was for 2019?
      Feb 28, 2019
  • So no one is denied H1 while transferring to Netflix?
    Feb 27, 2019 3
    • New / Mgmt
      deeprocker

      New Mgmt

      BIO
      BS in Robotics Eng (US), MS in Data Science (US Ivy League)
      deeprockermore
      OP
      That is correct, same with Microsoft. Netflix has 1 denial which was an amended h1b petition. Microsoft has 0 denials for all types of H1b petitions (5555 certified and 1 withdrawn)
      Feb 27, 2019
    • Facebook tGTv63
      Wait weren't there a few people from Microsoft complaining on blind being denied h1?
      Feb 27, 2019
    • New / Eng
      deeprocker

      New Eng

      BIO
      BS in Robotics Eng (US), MS in Data Science (US Ivy League)
      deeprockermore
      OP
      I didn't see anyone saying they are denied, the posts from Mcrsft guys with "h1b denial" are either asking for risks or talking about their friend or saying they are moving from Mcrsft to XX company etc.
      Feb 27, 2019
  • Cerner 10 x Eng?
    Thanks 🙏 a lot for doing the hard work and sharing the data for community.

    I started a thread with a question to join on receipt and find your thread/analysis very helpful.

    Can you share your code (if any) how you draw those metrics from data, so I can do similar stuff on my end, and have peace in my mind.
    Feb 27, 2019 1
    • New / Mgmt
      deeprocker

      New Mgmt

      BIO
      BS in Robotics Eng (US), MS in Data Science (US Ivy League)
      deeprockermore
      OP
      will PM you the code
      Feb 27, 2019
  • Yahoo / Eng
    Yahoo❗

    Yahoo Eng

    PRE
    Yahoo
    Yahoo❗more
    OP, you are amazing!
    Feb 27, 2019 0
  • Did similar research. Joined with receipt on October. Got approval in ~3 months
    Feb 27, 2019 4
    • New oAbt87
      Good, since premium processing wasn’t opened priority would be given for regular filings , now since premium is partially opened , they might delay petitions filed after December 22 nd ?
      Feb 27, 2019
    • But it is still a queue. U will see slight delay if u filed before December. I think they just want to milk as much money
      Feb 27, 2019
    • New oAbt87
      Mine is filed on Feb fist week . Any predictions when it gets to their queue ?
      Feb 27, 2019
    • No one can predict anything when premium is suspended. We can only tell u how our process went and rest is up to USCIS
      Feb 27, 2019

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