Is it a good time to join self driving car industry?

May 6, 2021 99 Comments

Hi people in the self driving industry, do you think it's a good time to join as an engineer? Some friends told me it may take another 5+ (or even 10) years to be prime, I wonder how valid the statement is.

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 TOP 99 Comments
  • Volvo / R&D
    gamaken

    Go to company page Volvo R&D

     gamaken
    Only if you're willing to stick it out till the (bitter) end. No self-driving companies give you publicly traded stock.
    May 6, 2021 12
  • You have to join before self/driving is “solved”, not afterwards.

    After it’s solved, most of the valuable/foundational work is done. Then it’s just another mature industry.

    But another issue with self-driving, it’s that it’s a high capex industry, so the leverage of software is relatively reduced. And there’s no strong winner-takes-all market dynamic, so competition might not be as fierce as other industries.
    May 10, 2021 12
    • BMW
      gEh6%g

      Go to company page BMW

      gEh6%g
      I kind of agree with Cisco’s statement. Speaking as an OEM employee here.
      Once one player solved it (at least L4), then the next player will come out with a big advantage if a better user experience etc. is offered. Besides that the regulatory risk is huge because after one-two companies solved it, international standards need to be developed for interoperability (self-drive to Mexico/Canada or any European country). So once the standards are set and implemented then the self-driving feature will be a commodity that you buy from a supplier. It won’t be a unique selling point for brands at that point in time which I predict in 2029. And without a unique selling point and advanced self-driving and car-sharing capabilities vehicle ownership will scale back. OEMs will sell less hardware (bread and butter today) and will establish more service oriented models (pay per minute etc.).
      Add emobility to the equation and the vehicle margin goes down.
      In other words, automotive will tremendously change in the next 8-10y. It’s a good ride until then if you work on ADS but after that it’s gonna be it. Might be interesting at Cruise, Aptiv and co for a bit longer (until L5 is solved) but not so much at an OEM.
      May 10, 2021
    • Zoox
      $#|t

      Go to company page Zoox

      $#|t
      BMW got it right here, this is why so many partnerships between OEMs and autonomous startups- at the end of this decade, if you were already a part of solving some of the critical problems or are actually solving them, it may give you a huge head start for the next decade when companies scale. Again though in terms of money, it going to be a gamble until that point. Why a gamble because everyone thinks it’s a profitable industry and expectations are to reach trillion dollar caps exponentially but that is a long way to go. Now not everyone wants to spend that much time of their life into one project so sweet spot could be 2-3 years from now on to enter but I do see industry has already done so much work till now that the longer you wait, more cool and critical things you’ll miss.
      May 11, 2021
  • Only Waymo and cruise have the money to survive a long winding journey. Rest all will get acquired. Of the two only Waymo has a working product. Infinite cash and compute resources are required to be successful
    May 10, 2021 17
  • Qualtrics / Eng
    fgxn

    Go to company page Qualtrics Eng

     fgxn
    Is it 2015?
    May 10, 2021 4
    • Amazon
      ynDd33

      Go to company page Amazon

      ynDd33
      Idk Qualtrics surveys are pretty slick and I don’t think they’re doing that without some interesting NLP and statistical approaches on the back end
      May 10, 2021
    • Yo don't get mad bro, just pointing out that self driving might be a tad harder than ripping features from surveymonkey and others that came before and after you.

      That is all.
      May 10, 2021
  • If you want to chase money, go after ads. If you are really interested in revolutionizing our commute, please do.
    May 10, 2021 9
    • That’s one side. The other side is that ads companies will still chase money so they will innovate more to get the targeting done without directly linking people with their profile.
      May 10, 2021
    • Apple
      we-friends

      Go to company page Apple

      we-friends
      Good point. If there’s money on the table, then ad platforms will push (pay) for new tracking tech, I agree
      May 10, 2021