NOTE: I am not in support/against of anything, just a great analysis to share with you all. The original link is here: https://www.cato.org/blog/fairness-high-skilled-immigrants-act-wait-times-green-card-grants Summary: 1) Indians are backlogged by nearly 550k applications till 2018. While they get 10k/year, it would take 50+ years to just clear the previous backlog. So someone from India applying in 2019 will get his GC in 2069+. 50k would be dead by the time they get their GC. 2)If HR1044 is implemented from 2020: Indian backlog will be cleared by 2025 and from 2027 priority date for everyone will be same - Current. People from RoW applying in 2020 will get their GC by 2023 while from India and China will get it by 2027. 3)If S386 is implemented from 2020: Indian backlog will be cleared by 2026 and from 2028 priority date for everyone will be same - Current. People from RoW applying in 2020 will get their GC by 2023 while from India and China will get it by 2028. This is due to inclusion of shortage workers which include nurses, physical therapists, etc from 2020-2027. 4)This probably doesn't include GC application rises from any country. Q: How is the overlook of this bill according to you, IF everything happens like this analysis?
Opening the India flood gates is NOT fair for other countries nor does it achieve the diversity needs of the US ...
An employment based immigrant is hired for the skill rather than country of origin. This diversity need talk is such nonsense, especially given that there is a separate diversity green card category altogether in addition to family sponsorship.
There is a separate diversity visa granting 50K GCs everyone to underrepresented countries. Do not mix diversity with employment visa.
US needs to fix H1B abuse first and then the GC mess.
True that.
Have you considered that Indians are over represented on H1B because going directly into GC isn’t a viable option for us? Or that it might not be surprising to have a high population tech centric English speaking country have a lot of gc applications?
Today India and China get all the unused GCs. But still the backlog grows. Doesn’t this mean that more people apply for GCs globally than we have quota for? If that’s true this will extend the backlog problem to the rest of the world and eventually everyone will be backlogged?
That is exactly what’s gonna happen. If roughly 50% applicants have 50y wait time and the rest have zero, it will become averaged to same 25y for everyone, growing at same speed. Backlog will never be “processed”. Saying that wait time will become fixed at 8-10y makes no sense. Where does the magic number 8-10 comes from? Why not 5? Why not 15? The wait time can only go down if there is enough GCs, or up if there is not enough. The backlog appeared because there is no longer enough so there’s that.
Did you check Cato analysis? There is a 3 year rampup and there is 3 year of backlog clearance and then there is 3 years of rampdown: https://www.cato.org/blog/fairness-high-skilled-immigrants-act-wait-times-green-card-grants
There's no concept of "fair", and fairness can be debated to no end. A better question would be "is this bill advantageous to the people of the US?"
Yep it is for American workers. This bill actually reduces wage depression for US workers. Basic labor dynamics tell us that when you have 2 class of workers for a long period of time, for two workers one with lower mobility and other with regular mobility, with same skill, the system chooses the worker with lower labor mobility every time, because they are cheaper. To be clear, no participant in the system needs to wilfully do this, the path of least resistance and rational path is to choose someone in backlog (lower labor mobility). Fixing the backlog will fix wage depression it caused and increases wages for all. It should also improve diversity because labor dynamics that causes this distortion will be gone and folks won't be chosen by the system based on backlog (country of birth). When that happens, less Indians will be chosen for tech jobs, because they will no more be cheap. This understanding also takes into account that the overall GC numbers for employment don't change. Infact, strictly speaking from American workers side - increasing GC is bad. So any type of CIR that increases employment GC is actually a bad idea. Status quo (backlog) is a bad idea. Lower labor mobility unfortunately is very bad for the better treated class - although it's not intuitive.
Fuck this bill, it’s going down. Stay in your backlog forever, you created it.
I guess you or your colleagues from EPAM are the ones who SPAM all the time against a community rather than politely conveying what problems you have and what you actually want.
Lol, this EPAM guy again.. Ken M ain’t got nothing on you
To be honest, if any Indian could not upgrade to EB1C after 10 years, he or she might need to do IQ or EQ test.
You need to be respectful towards others. First, EB1C is for managers and executives. Many people don't take the manangement track. Second and most important, you need to work 1 year outside the US as a multinational manager and then you can get via L1 and then EB1C which is lot of hassle. The ones who do it get it but now even EB1C is also abused by ICC's.
The level of misinformed posts .... 🤦♂️🤷🏻♂️ Referring to Palo Alto
True, but at least we know capable Indians should not be bothered by backlog that much described by some S386 advocate posts. If you think every Indian in the backlog is entitled to the GC in 10 years, increase GC cap for the whole world. Indians are fighting with ROW on S386 IMO
You are correct but the thing is people have lost patience after living here for 10+ years and some reports saying 30+ year wait cause more stir in the fire. So as anyone who looks for himself any Indian on EB2/EB3 would say S386 is the best even though knowing it is not even a solution. But because it has the highest chance to end the waitlist. Also the thing is GC cap is not gonna increase until RoW starts backlogging that won't happen for next 10 years. Republicans want no GC increase and lower immigrants while Democrats want to give GC away to illegal immigrants and DACA. No one cares about legal immigration. Personally I think atleast EB1 - A&B (not C though) should be uncapped as the criteria cannot be gamed, you have to be really in the top 1% of your field. But now the wait time for Indians and Chinese is 6 years and increasing.
Palo Alto, I would not say capable Indians should not be worried. They got done with screwing EB2 and are now encroaching into EB1. Many of their employees are going back to India just to come back on EB1C. If you followed the recent visa bulletins you will know what I am talking about. If this continues folks with 2016+ PD are screwed even in EB1.
I think you are one of the rational voices within Indians. Maybe best chance for CIR is when house, senate and president are all controlled by one party?
I am in India working on my SaaS but planned to set up an office in the US as many of my customers/leads are there. I just hope nothing happens to O-1 or EB-1 but given that the wait time will go on to increase there are no options except the EB-5 which might be if my startup continues to grow for the next 2-3 years with same pace as of now. But chances are still bleak and everything is uncertain. I am not gonna spend a million for EB-5 if there is still a waitlist (which is supposedly building). So I can do nothing as of now. Also even if senate is controlled by one party, someone always has a problem with something related to immigrants. Just for example, the S386 was bought by Demos and the current block is placed by a Demo!
CIR won’t happen. There’s no value to either side in compromising on immigration. It will take a minimum for 10 years and a new generation of reps
What you don’t have in your analysis is that India has around 20% as international students but takes 75% in H1B. This means there will always be backlog (India or RoW) unless we fixed that first. I will let people to digest this data first. Then we can debate further.
Fucking racist there is no rule that only H1b should be given to only international students. US does not implement the imaginary laws that the organizations like NIAC want because they can sneak in people from enemy/terrorist/rogue country like Iran.
Did I say India shouldn’t be given 75% H1B? I just presented a fact which hurt your feeling and I’m racist? I merely presented why the backlog issue won’t get resolved with this bill. Btw since you labeled me racist, let’s dive why we have this mess in the first place. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/11/06/us/outsourcing-companies-dominate-h1b-visas.html Is NYT also racist when they said some country is gaming the system?