Rookie here, just invested a sizeable chunk (yeah, I know, FOMO) in BTC. I'm hearing that CME is going to enable futures trading on Dec 10 and 18. My question: should I GTFO BTC or is this a great time to to HODL because it's going to shoot up. I'm having a hard time seeing how the futures market is NOT going impart a sobering and humbling experience to the wild west that's crypto. Also, how can we expect this to impact other coins (ETH, misc altcoins that use etheruem as a platform)?
How do cryptonerds not understand options? I’m gonna load up on out of the money 2020 puts...
It could happen--it could not. I don't know as to how robust this market will be. This is NASDAQ and not the CBOE. However after IPOs for example, once option trading kicks in, downward pressure starts to kick in. There's some very interesting behavioural financial economics studies out there on noise trading, momentum and bubbles. But with this market who the fuck knows. It's wild and I doubt many financial institutions are gonna touch this with a 10 foot pole. This is a textbook example of a bubble. But who knows.
It’s weakminded to trivialize this as a bubble considering there is zero “book value”.
@nilops unless you impart value on a specific crypto and build the infrastructure for a fast, safe, trade-worthy economy out, you have to go by book value. Right now you can’t 100% sustain yourself only using crypto, and even getting close leads to hard compromise. The fact of the matter is it is acting as a volatile store of value. Ask yourself this: if everyone tried to pull out of Coinbase tomorrow, what would happen? You think coinbase has billions cash in hand? Or kraken? Or gate hub? No. And they don’t have to be fdic insured or anything like that, so there’s no security net.
Million dollar question. Two things are driving (my opinion). 1. Future trading, as you mention 2. Multiple forks in 2018 to the BTC chain giving “free money” to those holding BTC I don’t see why it slows, but I am reading more about longer term HODLers speculating that the price will crash once futures markets come available. But it it is at $25k by next week and crashed back to $20k, wouldn’t you still be better off with your purchase now? I can’t say what’ll happen with ETH. Generally, everything else is down. BTC is the hot stuff right now.
How about just scooping it up at the dip? I'd love to HODL but I can bare seeing it drop from 17k to 7k
If you made a little $$ and would sleep better licking that gain in, than if you would if it goes to $50k or more, then maybe do it. Great username, btw.