Predict BTC/USD by 2030

Google
FFT0

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FFT0
May 21, 2021 147 Comments

Cathie is betting on $500k by 2025. I am going for $1 million in a decade. From unbiased surveys, 5% of Americans hold crypto. Some other countries in South America and Asia which adopted faster have reached 30% of population with ownership already. As market cap goes up, volatility will decrease further and more people will be interested in digital payments. You don't have to keep half of your assets in crypto, just $1k-$10k is good for everyday payments. Credit cards companies charge far too much fees to businesses, and there is a positive trend to accept crypto payments. With 5x increase in number of holders and 5x amount per investor, overall market cap can reach 25x current level, especially with higher levels of interest from institutional investors who want a bit more diversification once BTC and ETH become less correlated with US equities. Since 2013, the number of crypto wallets and BTC price has seen 100% CAGR, which is organic growth and not merely inflation. We're nowhere near the relative peak during the last pump when there was barely any utility yet. And we're seeing higher lows every time after each dump. Increasing govt regulation and participation only lends to greater long-term credibility and legitimacy. Relatively speaking, BTC will stagnate while ETH and others gain dominance, which is why I hold most of my crypto portfolio in altcoins.

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TOP 147 Comments
  • Walmart
    AFamilyMan

    Go to company page Walmart

    BIO
    My Id is my favorite movie, save your lecturing on how to be a good family man ๐Ÿ™‚
    AFamilyMan
    Sorry to burst your imagination, but it is too much of delusion stuffed in one post.
    May 21, 2021 19
    • New
      New ๐Ÿ—ฃ๏ธ

      New

      New ๐Ÿ—ฃ๏ธ
      Maybe because gold is being used in electronics and have been extremely difficult to mine recently?

      Yes. A lot of people knew Amazon and Apple are good companies in 2009. Even with the housing bubble. Seriously. Google it.
      May 21, 2021
    • Google
      FFT0

      Go to company page Google

      FFT0
      OP
      Please check the facts.

      Only a small fraction of gold is used in electronics.
      https://www.statista.com/statistics/299609/gold-demand-by-industry-sector-share/
      If price is pegged to industrial use, why is it price so volatile? And why was gold so valuable for over 2000 years of history since the ancient Greeks and Romans? Do you think they used it in electronics too?

      Amount of gold mined has been increasing steadily over the past 100 years, contrary to your assumption:
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_gold#/media/File%3AWorld_Gold_Production_1900-2014.png

      Back when BTC was $200, people thought it was overvalued and would drop to $0. Did they ever imagine that it would cross above $2000? Or $20,000? No, the people who made such outrageous claims were obviously "delusional"

      Regarding FAANG valuation, it's easy to claim what you know now is evident in hindsight. We'll see what the future holds. My prediction might be off by a factor of 2x or 5x (either undervalued or overvalued), but even 20% per year is decent in my books, and a midpoint estimate of $1MM in 9 years would be 40% CAGR which is not unreasonable at the efficient frontier considering equal Sharpe ratios.
      May 21, 2021
  • Google
    kurian๐Ÿ’ฏ

    Go to company page Google

    kurian๐Ÿ’ฏ
    You lost me at "It's too much of a hassle to carry around a credit card'
    May 21, 2021 17
    • Amazon / Eng
      social_arb

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      social_arb
      And Why would governments approve an alternative currency which they canโ€™t control and track ?
      May 22, 2021
    • Amazon / Eng
      not amazon

      Go to company page Amazon Eng

      not amazon
      I feel OP really doest know how crypto works at all. First he complains about "apple/google" vendor. Then says level 2 vendors (its the same thing with extra step...)

      Says does not like fee yet want to use crypto with 5-9% fee
      Says does not like cards yet want to use what? printed private key?
      May 22, 2021
  • NVIDIA
    i_is_here

    Go to company page NVIDIA

    i_is_here
    Are you trying to convince yourself
    May 21, 2021 5
    • New
      New ๐Ÿ—ฃ๏ธ

      New

      New ๐Ÿ—ฃ๏ธ
      Are you telling that to yourself OP? Because it seems like you don't know supply and demand, among a ton of other concepts.

      May I suggest you use Google? It's a search engine.

      Or... Maybe you've just got yourself surrounded with your Bitcoin influencer bubble that you don't seem to listen to what these other Blind members are saying?

      What's the point of asking when you won't listen anyway?

      If almost everyone in your post is saying Bitcoin is shit, and you still won't listen to their arguments, while just spining up all the same narrative in every single Bitcoin ad out there, then . . . Whatever. I'm out.
      May 21, 2021
    • Google
      FFT0

      Go to company page Google

      FFT0
      OP
      Do you have a degree in economics? If you understand supply and demand, let's discuss that in detail based on trade flow and institutional reallocation. Provide an empirical criticism of cointegration in the more recent version of S2F or a least upper bound on demand cap for example.

      Supply of BTC is capped and approaching its limit, while demand can increase 10x. Do you know what that means for the price?

      I am not interested in engaging with your unfounded personal attacks because it's plainly not constructive or informational.
      May 21, 2021
  • Cisco
    ajohndoe

    Go to company page Cisco

    ajohndoe
    1k max.

    Why will Govt across the world will allow something which they don't control?
    May 21, 2021 9
    • Any asset without Govt support cannot survive โ€ฆ. Governments are controlled by big banks โ€ฆ Banks will lobby heavily against something affects their profit & Govt will never or any reason to encourage something they cannot control โ€ฆ recent incidents of ransoms paid to hackers of Colonial pipes and JB meats in crypto will force Govt to go after crypto currency ..
      Jun 12, 2021
    • Cisco
      aomo01

      Go to company page Cisco

      aomo01
      Ericsson, I agree the government will be the final boss. Might be some turbulence, but ultimately government trust is running out. We have the highest debt to GDP in history and inflation is at risk of getting out of control. How do you raise interest rates with such record debt? They could do it in the 1970s because our debt to GDP was 30%. Now we are over 130%. The government would bankrupt themselves by raising rates.

      The banks are already offering bitcoin products to their clients. Government officials are starting to lobby for bitcoin. Itโ€™s just a matter of time before the fiat game is up.
      Jun 13, 2021
  • Goldman Sachs / Eng
    qWcV71

    Go to company page Goldman Sachs Eng

    BIO
    Goldman Sachs
    qWcV71
    Whereโ€™s the option of 0$
    May 21, 2021 6
    • Google
      FFT0

      Go to company page Google

      FFT0
      OP
      I was wishing the price would drop lower. In fact, I was prepared to put in buy orders all the way down to $5k. Too bad other greedy speculators bought the dip and crowded out the opportunity.
      May 21, 2021
    • Google
      PHxi13

      Go to company page Google

      PHxi13
      "Put on a naked short, and wait it out for 10 years."
      is same energy as
      "If you think this casino is rigged you should bet money to prove it."
      ๐Ÿคก

      Also LMAO @ calling your own peers greedy speculators. ๐Ÿคก๐Ÿคก
      May 21, 2021