S386/HR1044 Myth Buster with sources cited

Sep 21, 2019 455 Comments

These bills seek to remove the per country cap in employment based green card category making it free from discrimination on an applicant's country of birth.

This is a much needed relief for many backlogged tech workers who have been working in USA, legally, for decades with absurd GC wait times like 150 years, all while proving year after year to visa officers their worth and value to America!

It has been a contentious topic and many posts get flagged and disappear.
I would just like to clear some popular misconceptions I see on blind and elsewhere on this topic. I base it only on facts NOT opinions and cite all my sources for your independent verification.

Myth 1 "Wait times for all except Indians will become 10+ years."

FALSE: True number of backlogged cases is unknown. But a number does come from a CATO post (cited below) that used a bunch of worst case estimates of 300k backlogged Indians assuming each applicant has 2+ dependents. It's a worst case estimate because most Indians have American kids (who don't need GC). It also assumes ZERO dropouts (untrue as thousands of Indians leave this broken system every year).
The original source was really trying to highlight the plight of Indians stuck here.

But EVEN SO their number of 632k backlogs / 140k GCs per year = 4.5years to clear backlog!!!
The bill already has a transition phase of 3 years which means for 3 years the country caps are increased, NOT removed. The bill also has a DO-NO-HARM clause which means if you have something in progress you will see NO IMPACT.

Still realistically future applicants could be looking at a delay of 1.5 years AFTER 4 years of enactment.

Even so, 3 years of added delay runs **in parallel** with regular GC processing which itself takes 2 years anyway, so real added delay would be in MONTHS!, Definitely not in decades for future immigrants from all countries! (contrast that with current 150 year wait time for Indians in the queue without the bill)!

MYTH 2. "US tech force will lose diversity"
IMPOSSIBLE:
- Employment category makes up a measly 10% of all green cards issued! (Cited below)
- Indians the largest beneficiary make up ~1% of US population. Even with all backlog cleared, their percentage can barely scratch 2%! (Sources cited below)
- These are existing people waiting in queue for decades, not newcomers so you can't destroy diversity with existing workforce.

MYTH 3. "Bill encourages Indians and Chinese to flood the system"
REALLY REALLY HARD: EB has merit based categories, multiple levels of scrutiny and more importantly forces employers to prove that local talent is unavailable for every new applicant. It is NOT like H1b where there is minimal scrutiny, no merit based categories and a pure lottery based allocation.
Moreover with this bill people will get mobility, making it harder to justify new alien hires. The reason it is so easy for body shops and H1b abusers today is because the backlog means folks waiting cannot qualify to apply to these new positions.

There is a very obvious side effect when folks move - TC goes up for ALL!!

Sources:
https://www.cato.org/blog/150-year-wait-indian-immigrants-advanced-degrees

https://www.rpc.senate.gov/policy-papers/employment-based-immigration

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Americans

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TL,DR: S386/HR1044 CANNOT SCREW ANYONE!

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TOP 455 Comments
  • Amazon 0x12h
    Myth 0: the backlog is linear.
    FALSE! Once Indian knows there is GC giveaway by s386, there will be another 2 million Indians in the line during that 3 years. :)

    And pls don’t put Chinese in your post. They are against it.
    Sep 21, 2019 43
    • VMware / Eng anonym🌴🌱
      OP
      Ahh now I see - by a dude named brian19, how credible 😂🤣😅
      Sep 23, 2019
    • New ObBH61
      @Tesla, did you note that your first link itself has a nohr1044 in it?
      Also your own link notes some ~300k applicants from all the countries. That's much better than OP's other link which has some 600k Indians alone, so why all this ruckus?
      Sep 23, 2019
  • Amazon
    buffChikos

    Amazon

    BIO
    Yo-yo Chen
    buffChikosmore
    Very well written. Thanks, OP. This was enlightening.
    Sep 21, 2019 61
    • American Express vista133
      Yes we got GC in 12 months and that burns your ass Nike??
      Sep 21, 2019
    • American Express vista133
      Google, please let it go... You are obviously smarter than Nike. Who wouldn't be btw? Dont waiste your time and have a wonderful weekend good man!
      Sep 21, 2019
  • LinkedIn KHYA24
    We all know what Indians did to flood the IT system with ICC companies transporting people from abroad. Right now the number waiting in the line is not exceedingly high (which is really high already) is because Indian people saw it took too long to get in the US through this option. If the bill gets passed, there will be tremendous amount of Indian people starting to apply for US working visa this way and flood the IT industry. It is IT industry being flooded first, and then all other high paid industries would be next. It will be an end for other ethnicities.
    Sep 21, 2019 24
    • Microsoft FallBack
      KHYA, You are thinking middle eastern. Your worst dream is already true in the medical system just that the Middle easterners are already doing it.
      Check out Cleveland clinic. Mt Sinai in Minneapolis. Here how it goes:

      Rich Arab has hemorrhoids and gets it fixed at Cleveland clinic. Next he offers $$$ to the hospital which they obviously don't refuse. In exchange a few middle eastern or Pakistani doctors get to study there.
      When internal opportunities come up, a couple get picked. This continues for a few years. Before you know one of them is in a position of power. Then you see Cleveland clinic is full of Arab/Pakistani doctors.
      The hospital has tough choices to make 1) to pick up battle with them or 2) shutup for the Arab oil $$$
      Also true wherever you find doctors belonging to the Ummah.
      Sep 23, 2019
    • Amazon
      BuffChikos

      Amazon

      BIO
      Yo-yo Chen
      BuffChikosmore
      🤣
      Sep 23, 2019
  • Everyone is a hypocrite.. people who show so much affection to illegal immigration and shower so much hatred on conservatives will shit on legal immigration one of the highest tax paying group! And people who want to build that wall and keep ranting come the right way get in line don’t even know how broken the line is! All those who are against removal of country cap I have a question for them - If you go to a movie theater to buy tickets or Disney world or Starbucks to get coffee and you are asked to stand in line based on your country of birth and are not allowed to go on another counter even though there is no line there because there aren’t any people from that country getting coffee would that be okay with you????? Next time imagine if you are made to stand in line based on your country of birth anywhere how ridiculous it is!!! Why should H1 be any different !
    Sep 21, 2019 31
    • Nike 🐁a$$
      @hooli ask your family back in the rat ass.
      Sep 21, 2019
    • Flagged by the community.

  • Spotify Atinlay3
    Are you Indian?
    Sep 21, 2019 10
    • VMware / Eng anonym🌴🌱
      OP
      Point taken. Peace? Nah still Keen on insulting! 😔
      Sep 21, 2019
    • Microsoft YVap10
      150 years is not exaggeration. 10 years is for those with a priority date of 2011. The wait increases exponentially, for those who applied in the last couple of years it's 150 years.
      Sep 25, 2019
  • Tesla lambdaq
    1. You’re not right. It’s easy to calculate. Current backlog is around 10 years. Indians get on average 70-75% of all h1s which leads you to about 600k people in backlog. You can easy multiple this by factor of 3 (wife plus one kid). So we’re looking for at least 1.5 million potential permanent residents. USCIS allocate only 120k visas every year for all eb categories, even if you get 100k it will take 12-15 years to clean up the backlog.

    2. Yes, it will lose. I only see Indians in tech and it’s not because you’re great. Just because you’re cheaper. The whole bill is sponsored by big tech.

    3. Yes, it encourages INDIANS to flood the system. Also this visa can be granted to any alien residing outside of the US. Eb visa has nothing to do with h1. It can be sponsored remotely thought the same process.

    Stop your propaganda.
    Sep 21, 2019 14
    • Facebook / Eng REPW86
      Indian just learnt how to google translate, nice
      Sep 21, 2019
    • Amazon
      风貌

      Amazon

      BIO
      Yo-yo Chen
      风貌more
      No.
      Sep 21, 2019
  • Facebook / Eng REPW86
    Bill encourage Indian and Chinese flood the system - Chinese are not flooding the system. Indian friend please stop buck us in. I know Indian vs ROW doesn’t look good, but we don’t want to fight with you
    Sep 21, 2019 3
    • Facebook / Eng REPW86
      Can you read?
      Sep 21, 2019
    • Dude Chinese flooded the eb5 system and were responsible for creating a housing market bubble on the west coast! Just that Americans are not that educated about eb5 so don’t think of it much !
      Sep 21, 2019
  • Amgen nicorobo
    A simple logic. If this bill doesn’t benefit Indians why are they the only ones advocate for it? We want diversity here in the US. The country cap is there to ensure the people from other countries with smaller populations don’t get flooded out by a big pool of Indians already in the queue of the GC line. Not to mention that a high percentage of them are unqualified h1 workers bringing in through a loophole by those Indian IT consulting firms. How is this fair?
    Sep 21, 2019 13
    • Let’s also not forget these loopholes were overlooked intentionally for financial gains of US by US. So the blame goes not only on consultancies but also American companies wanting quick tech workers. Blame goes both ways. I understand your concern as it is a concern for many Indians impacted by these loopholes but who are we to judge who is deserving and who is not. Let market forces decide that. Isn’t that the true nature of a capitalist economy?
      Sep 21, 2019
    • Amgen nicorobo
      I agree with the first part of your statement and I see where you are coming from. However, since it is US law we are talking about here, the focus should be on how this bill helps America bring in true talents. Passing this bill will not get rid of the unqualified Indian h1 holders and will actually make it harder to bring in true talents for years to come. Like I said before, I agree that the government should do something to identify the true Indian talents instead of having them wait in line, but this bill is not the answer.
      Sep 21, 2019
  • Facebook / Eng REPW86
    Confirmed Indians very good at typing
    Sep 21, 2019 13
    • Nike 🐁a$$
      @uber mountains, I was just responding to an arrogant brat, get back to work now, if not laid off already.
      Sep 21, 2019
    • Google / Eng hooli.xyz
      @Nike

      Well, you’re certainly making a lot of friends here 😂

      My offer of real food still stands. I am worried about your mental state after you started repeating 🐀 and 🇮🇷 in other threads.

      Help me help you, friend.
      Sep 21, 2019
  • Amazon
    colonel

    Amazon

    PRE
    IBM, Cisco, Microsoft
    colonelmore
    It's surprising how people from ROW are immune to Indian wait times. Each time we are interrogated at port of entries like some illegal immigrants. I guess people don't empathize cause they never experienced it. Also what's interesting is who ever is opposing in blind is bringing up the concern for future applicants instead of themselves and Indians already in the wait queue for decades. You have Google and Microsoft CEOs from India but when it comes to exploiting cheap Indian labor US immigration system isn't any different than the middle east.
    Sep 25, 2019 24
    • Microsoft holahola
      If those Indians didn’t use H1b first to get job experience, how can they apply for green card? It’s related. So we need to remove all those people from ICC in the green card queue
      Sep 29, 2019
    • VMware / Eng anonym🌴🌱
      OP
      Everyone (esp Indians) would like H1b abuse to end. No human wants to be a slave with no mobility. But once S386 is gone row won't give a damn about H1b abuse. Here they are somehow spooked into thinking that this bill with affect them so all this opposition and shouting. Check out later you won't hear the tiniest whimper about eliminating abuse.
      Rather fight the abuse problem as part of this bill not as a precondition. That's the only way something will get done. At least you won't continue to screw up backlogged folks in the meantime.
      Sep 29, 2019

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