S386/HR1044 Myth Buster with sources cited
These bills seek to remove the per country cap in employment based green card category making it free from discrimination on an applicant's country of birth.
This is a much needed relief for many backlogged tech workers who have been working in USA, legally, for decades with absurd GC wait times like 150 years, all while proving year after year to visa officers their worth and value to America!
It has been a contentious topic and many posts get flagged and disappear.
I would just like to clear some popular misconceptions I see on blind and elsewhere on this topic. I base it only on facts NOT opinions and cite all my sources for your independent verification.
Myth 1 "Wait times for all except Indians will become 10+ years."
FALSE: True number of backlogged cases is unknown. But a number does come from a CATO post (cited below) that used a bunch of worst case estimates of 300k backlogged Indians assuming each applicant has 2+ dependents. It's a worst case estimate because most Indians have American kids (who don't need GC). It also assumes ZERO dropouts (untrue as thousands of Indians leave this broken system every year).
The original source was really trying to highlight the plight of Indians stuck here.
But EVEN SO their number of 632k backlogs / 140k GCs per year = 4.5years to clear backlog!!!
The bill already has a transition phase of 3 years which means for 3 years the country caps are increased, NOT removed. The bill also has a DO-NO-HARM clause which means if you have something in progress you will see NO IMPACT.
Still realistically future applicants could be looking at a delay of 1.5 years AFTER 4 years of enactment.
Even so, 3 years of added delay runs **in parallel** with regular GC processing which itself takes 2 years anyway, so real added delay would be in MONTHS!, Definitely not in decades for future immigrants from all countries! (contrast that with current 150 year wait time for Indians in the queue without the bill)!
MYTH 2. "US tech force will lose diversity"
- Employment category makes up a measly 10% of all green cards issued! (Cited below)
- Indians the largest beneficiary make up ~1% of US population. Even with all backlog cleared, their percentage can barely scratch 2%! (Sources cited below)
- These are existing people waiting in queue for decades, not newcomers so you can't destroy diversity with existing workforce.
MYTH 3. "Bill encourages Indians and Chinese to flood the system"
REALLY REALLY HARD: EB has merit based categories, multiple levels of scrutiny and more importantly forces employers to prove that local talent is unavailable for every new applicant. It is NOT like H1b where there is minimal scrutiny, no merit based categories and a pure lottery based allocation.
Moreover with this bill people will get mobility, making it harder to justify new alien hires. The reason it is so easy for body shops and H1b abusers today is because the backlog means folks waiting cannot qualify to apply to these new positions.
There is a very obvious side effect when folks move - TC goes up for ALL!!
TL,DR: S386/HR1044 CANNOT SCREW ANYONE!