The redfin report was released which shows both national trends and city wide trends. Please scroll down and see the city wide trends for yourself. The highlights for San Jose: - Sale price in July dropped by 5% compared to June. - inventory is up in July by 8% compared to June - inventory is up in July 2018 by 28% compared to July 2017 Inventory going up shows that the sellers are stuck with their houses and not able to sell. https://www.redfin.com/blog/2018/08/market-tracker-july-2018.html?utm_source=Iterable&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=1011565&inquirySource=367
Important to note that inventory nationwide dropped by 5%. However the inventory jumped up by 28% in San Jose and 27% in Seattle. This is what the redfin CEO might have been indicating m. The west coast cities are having a huge inventory increase. Now if prop 13 passes then the inventory will only rise.
Taylor Marr, Redfin senior economist, said, “The Bay Area, Seattle and Portland have been so competitive for so long that buyers and sellers have adjusted to those conditions and may feel uneasy about the changes we’re seeing in the market. After several years of shrinking inventory and unsustainable price growth, I’m encouraged by these changes as a signal that we may be returning to a healthier, more balanced market.” Going up 19.3% year-over-year is a hot market normalizing to a regular market. There is no “housing crash“ coming.
OP is saying that we may have witnesses the tipping point. Wait and watch to see if it really was the tipping point.
“Tipping point“ indicates a peek, and then a steady decline of real estate values there after. That’s vastly different then a slowing down of the year over year home price. I think it’s the latter. We will probably slow down to 15% year-over-year growth, then 10, and then five, have another recession where prices drop 10% for one year, and then the next boom will begin. Nothing will ever shark bait area real estate again for a very long time. 2008 was the last time, and it will never happen again in our lifetimes
Even the Bay Area will succumb to the Economic laws of physics. None of this matters is if you plan on owning 10 years + though. It’s all the investors that will get crushed. As they say pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supply_and_demand
Can concur my neighborhood in Sunnyvale has been seeing a drop as well. Things are on the market much longer with way fewer offers. Hopefully upcoming IPOs will help revert the trend but they are at least a year away.
YoY comparisons or GTFO
I moved out of the Bay Area because my extended family couldn’t afford to live there. I’d love if the market normalized.
Alive, seriously you aren't learning at all despite the amount of time you waste trying to find data that supports your dream. Month over month percentage changes are meaningless. You aren't ready for real estate, just stick to renting and let it go. If you ever buy you will drive yourself crazy monitoring short term fluctuations. Real estate isn't a liquid market and you cannot make it one :)
You are right - soon houses in Bay Area will be free. They might pay you to take one :): “The most competitive market in July was San Francisco where 76.3% of homes sold above list price, followed by 71.7% in San Jose, CA, 70.0% in Oakland, CA, 51.3% in Tacoma, WA, and 50.8% in Boston. Prices San Jose, CA had the nation’s highest price growth, rising 19.3% since last year to $1,163,500. “ And the houses stay on the market for two weeks on average - I mean sellers probable have complete break downs waiting that long.
This issue of houses selling above ask is not a measure of the strength of the market. Realtors purposely list below market value to drive interest. The best measure is months on market. 6 months is considered neutral. We’re well below that therefore a sellers market. Only time will tell but the trend has certainly shifted direction.
Crashing . . Sell everything and run into the woods. Zombie Apocalypse is around the corner