This is a full crash...not a correction, not a bear market

Dec 24, 2018 121 Comments

Full bubble pop...full reversion. Nasdaq 2,500 SP500 1,200 Dow 11,000. Remember those numbers.

Set up candles to 3months then check financial etfs , oil, high yield bonds, major indices, housing starts. Banking etfs show very clearly that this is going to be another financial meltdown like 2007-2009. The speed and momentum that things are crashing is actually far more severe than in 2008. I warned you guys beginning of October. Things have gotten much worse since then. Best of luck to all.

One example...Netflix just broke support and is heading to $100 maybe lower. But most of tech looks like this. Far overvalued and now the bubble is bursting...

Merry Christmas 🎁🎄⛄️🎅😂😂😂

The game has changed. You need to understand that. Monetary conditions have gone from the loosest in history to tight. Please look into it.

The Fed balance sheet will continue to tighten monetary conditions going forward even if the FED pauses the rate hike. After the last recession the Fed moved rates to 0% and added 4.5 Trillion in liquidity to the markets they are now pulling that from the market and simultaneously raising rates.

What permabulls don’t understand is these macro factors completely change the risk level in stocks. Stock market was the most crowded of all asset trades over the last decade because the federal reserve punished savers. And now for the first time in a decade you can reap risk free benefits from treasuries and other similar financial instruments. So there is an enormous amount of money flow out of equities and into safer assets. This money flow isn’t going to stop until the after the next crash and after federal reserve reverses course drops rates back to zero and starts loosening financial conditions again. The market isn’t going to go straight down but please be aware that the game has changed for now.

This is a full crash...not a correction, not a bear market

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TOP 121 Comments
  • OP
    Do not go long in this market until a bottom has been confirmed. I will re enter long positions in the middle of the next recession. That means unemployment will be around 7-10%! Not 3.7% like it is now...patience and discipline is key. And if anyone wants to spit out that time in the market baloney go talk to Japan it took them more than 30 years to hit their ath from the stock bubble in the 80’s...
    Dec 24, 2018 24
    • OP
      I’m suggesting that we’ll be trading under 1,500 S&P under 3,000 Nasdaq and under 15,000 Dow in 6 months.
      Dec 25, 2018
    • Uber czWM20
      That is quite an aggressive bet. I’ll happily take the other side of your trade
      Feb 19, 2019
  • Facebook AyyoLeMayo
    Technical analysis is literally numerology, wtf are some candles going to tell you about the health of the economy?
    Dec 24, 2018 4
    • Facebook AyyoLeMayo
      Alrighty then, go ahead and follow the numbers to your millions. Not sure why you are spending all your time posting charts on blind looking for validation
      Dec 25, 2018
    • OP
      This isn’t about validation at all. I shared information as a courtesy twice in the beginning of October and now again. It’s intended to wake people up out of their complacency and do some research learn about macro factors that drive price action for decades and help inform their decisions. Developers built these companies I would hate to see developers lose all of their paper wealth because they were complacent.
      Dec 25, 2018
  • LeanTaaS ♥️ data
    OP... What's your age?
    Dec 24, 2018 4
    • New / Eng MSFT_fte
      It wasn't fine 10 days back. Smart people could see the trouble since October.
      Dec 25, 2018
    • It's been writing on the wall for nearly a year.
      Dec 25, 2018
  • Salesforce Heimer
    To anyone reading this - do not be swayed by panic inducing posts like this. Stick to your investment plan.
    Dec 24, 2018 5
    • OP
      Cash, short term treasuries, gold those are some reliable safe havens. Real estate is not clear to me at this point. I think real estate prices have peaked for the next 5+ years beyond that I couldn’t tell you to what degree it will come down. Certainly I’m not suggesting anyone sell their primary residence.
      Dec 24, 2018
    • Wtf tech people seriously only know one asset class. Give me another real estate crash, I will buy all the houses.
      Dec 25, 2018
  • Facebook / Eng Ccdz88
    I won't claim this isn't a crash, but it's far different than the dot com bubble and 2007/08. The tech companies that are dropping provide actual consumer value (insert Facebook joke here) and lending is still much stricter than it was so banks are in a much better position.

    The market is not an indicator of the economy, though it can mirror it.
    Dec 24, 2018 4
  • Wish / Eng
    kagamoto

    Wish Eng

    PRE
    Amazon, Facebook, Google
    kagamotomore
    By the way, I get my data through a paid service from Hedgeye for those interested and purely data driven.
    Dec 24, 2018 6
    • Apple Gg56fh
      I’ll check it out. Thank you.
      Dec 26, 2018
    • Wish / Eng
      kagamoto

      Wish Eng

      PRE
      Amazon, Facebook, Google
      kagamotomore
      I track another service - squeezemetrics - for options. We may have hit a real short term bottom based on its proprietary dark pool index (DIX) and historical returns that follow given today’s DIX level. Check it out. Twitter: @SqueezeMetrics
      Dec 26, 2018
  • OP
    Dot com bubble 2.0...the fed zero rate policy reckoning...
    Dec 24, 2018 4
    • Amazon 5'6 Endian
      Completely untrue.
      Dec 25, 2018
    • PayPal fgh436
      Looks to me like cup and handle forming..
      Dec 25, 2018
  • Airbnb fkebeixid
    There’s no structural problem causing snowballing negative effects like there was in 2000 or 2008. A fear driven market crash is not proof of a recession incoming.

    The tech market was well overdue for a correction and that hasn’t hit bottom yet. But the economy is overall healthy.
    Dec 25, 2018 1
    • OP
      There is a structural problem. That’s really my point. The macro factors that inflated the global stock markets for the last 10 years have changed. Stock markets have moved from an extreme risk on to risk off. This is the tip of a very large ice berg. FED QE has become FED QT macro factors have reversed. Easy money is gone. Financial systems are tightening. The zero rate QE asset bubble is popping.

      The debt bubble has been inflating since 2,000 this could be the financial event that pops it...
      Dec 25, 2018
  • Microsoft YsTJ07
    Dec 24, 2018 0
  • Wish / Eng
    kagamoto

    Wish Eng

    PRE
    Amazon, Facebook, Google
    kagamotomore
    Keep on selling. Tech and high beta are over. Look for a bounce and sell the rip like you bought the dip.
    Dec 24, 2018 1
    • OP
      ^^ my point exactly. This is liquidation city. Funds are closing en masse.
      Dec 24, 2018

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