Full bubble pop...full reversion. Nasdaq 2,500 SP500 1,200 Dow 11,000. Remember those numbers. Set up candles to 3months then check financial etfs , oil, high yield bonds, major indices, housing starts. Banking etfs show very clearly that this is going to be another financial meltdown like 2007-2009. The speed and momentum that things are crashing is actually far more severe than in 2008. I warned you guys beginning of October. Things have gotten much worse since then. Best of luck to all. One example...Netflix just broke support and is heading to $100 maybe lower. But most of tech looks like this. Far overvalued and now the bubble is bursting... Merry Christmas 🎁🎄⛄️🎅😂😂😂 The game has changed. You need to understand that. Monetary conditions have gone from the loosest in history to tight. Please look into it. The Fed balance sheet will continue to tighten monetary conditions going forward even if the FED pauses the rate hike. After the last recession the Fed moved rates to 0% and added 4.5 Trillion in liquidity to the markets they are now pulling that from the market and simultaneously raising rates. What permabulls don’t understand is these macro factors completely change the risk level in stocks. Stock market was the most crowded of all asset trades over the last decade because the federal reserve punished savers. And now for the first time in a decade you can reap risk free benefits from treasuries and other similar financial instruments. So there is an enormous amount of money flow out of equities and into safer assets. This money flow isn’t going to stop until the after the next crash and after federal reserve reverses course drops rates back to zero and starts loosening financial conditions again. The market isn’t going to go straight down but please be aware that the game has changed for now.
Technical analysis is literally numerology, wtf are some candles going to tell you about the health of the economy?
Self fulling prophecies traders, doesn't mean anything about overall health of economy except for those heavy in stocks for our comp packages. it's good to know technicals because of how people trade. If people with the majority of the money trade on technicals then it matters a lot. And I would bet that there are many algos that run on technicals.
It’s really not. TA and FA both clearly identified the risks here and both point to much more downside over the next 12 months. You should learn about Robert Shiller. He’s been sounding the alarm since august that major crash is coming...Nobel prize winning economist.
Do not go long in this market until a bottom has been confirmed. I will re enter long positions in the middle of the next recession. That means unemployment will be around 7-10%! Not 3.7% like it is now...patience and discipline is key. And if anyone wants to spit out that time in the market baloney go talk to Japan it took them more than 30 years to hit their ath from the stock bubble in the 80’s...
A single data point doesn't make a trend. For example, try this: Talk to US in 2007, folks who entered before the 08 crash still came out ahead. Everything has more than doubled in a decade.
P.S. why aren't you shorting the market if you're so confident that it'll continue to drop?
OP... What's your age?
Almost 40. Business owner. TC 400-600k per year. Market crash #3 for me that I can remember.
So everything was fine 10 days back and now recession? It's just fed and Trump
I won't claim this isn't a crash, but it's far different than the dot com bubble and 2007/08. The tech companies that are dropping provide actual consumer value (insert Facebook joke here) and lending is still much stricter than it was so banks are in a much better position. The market is not an indicator of the economy, though it can mirror it.
100% agree that tech companies today are not the same as those in the 2,000s but the valuations are out of control and we’re seeing very aggressive and painful price discovery right now. The stock market is a canary in a coal mine. The fed built this bubble. This crash is indicating weakness in the financial world. There’s a massive corporate debt bubble. If I had to guess that’s really the big issue that is going to make headlines within the next couple years.
+1 subprime corporate debt, the bubble is bursting. The only question is how will the Fed react?
Market reflects investor confidence. Hard to tell which way the market is headed. Only thing that appears to be predictable is high volatility for the near future. If you can trade on that, this is a great time to make a ton of $$$.
Yes. 100% agree right now I don’t feel good about either direction. Extremely oversold market but the selling has just been relentless. Just incredible to see this sort of momentum.
Keep on selling. Tech and high beta are over. Look for a bounce and sell the rip like you bought the dip.
^^ my point exactly. This is liquidation city. Funds are closing en masse.
Looks like a Christmas present from Donald John Trump himself. The market's on sale!
This sounds like panic. Chillax, bro. Have a cookie.
To anyone reading this - do not be swayed by panic inducing posts like this. Stick to your investment plan.
While I 100% agree you should not be making investment decisions based on blind posts. I do hope you guys understand what a massive asset bubble we’re in and hope you all have been selling into the strength all year. That was the prudent course of action. Sell into the rallies. Take the 500% profit from this bull run and lock the profit up. Don’t watch that paper wealth evaporate into dust. Don’t be like the crypto hodlers on suicide watch. Fuck paper wealth I want tangible wealth.
If deflation hits, what tangible wealth is out there? Short everything and buy treasuries? What are you buying?
Dot com bubble 2.0...the fed zero rate policy reckoning...
Trump's tariffs have nothing to do with it? Your guy fucked us.
^^ My guy?! 😂😂😂 The tariffs just sped up the process. It was happening either way.