Say I get a 500k package with Uber or Lyft today and they IPO next year. What multiple could I expect my stock to be at on day 1? Are we talking 2-3x or could it be higher? (Eg my 500k becomes 1.5 mil at 3x)
No - no way it will pop 3x . That means company royally fked up determining demand. Note that any delta between the offer price and market price is eaten by the underwriters - this would be great for them. Most likely you might see a 30-40% pop . Also know that employees will be on a lockout period.
You won’t get that much with Uber. Stay LinkedIn
Most commonly the ipo pops on day one to five then dives. When your lockout period ends assume to be safe you are at 0.5 and hopefully steady growth over the next several years. You will be lucky if the ipo price holds let alone grows. This isn't a knock against any particular company but the most common scenario.
It’s also highly dependent on valuation by the time of IPO. Even in the last year the price/share has gone up quite a bit.
Lyft and Uber are late stage startups. If you could still call them that. Best expectations is either your RSU strike price holds or goes up 1.2-1.3x
Also, your RSU ‘package’ will increase by 20-30%, not your entire ‘package’ :)
Investment banks do their best to not leave money on the table. This is especially true for massive IPOs like Uber. Do you really think Uber market cap will go from $70 billion to $210 billion in a day?
The valuation they quote you is speculative and incorporates any expected pop. You'll be lucky to get 1x. One time I was a manager at a pre IPO company and was told by HR to quote the true value of shares at $150. It ended up IPOing at $50 literally 2 months later. It recovered a year later but our quote was definitely speculative. I doubt Uber does things any differently.
Uber and Lyft are entirely different companies with entirely different growth prospects, they are not remotely comparable. Lyft does a masterful job with public perception but reality is going to catch up to them
They are, by definition, very comparable. You know how big the addressable markets are. It’s probable both companies still have valuation upside.
Not comparable at all (distant 2nd in us rideshare only vs a global company that’s 10x larger with many verticals) and public markets will make this clear. Rooting for you guys though because if Lyft really is worth $15B+ then we’re in extremely good shape for a $120B+ ipo
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