What is Airbnb’s real worth?

Dec 8, 2019 19 Comments

Thinking of trying to get in Airbnb SDE before its IPO. Blind and Levels.fyi suggest RSUs for my target level (L4) are 3000-3500, which would worth 360K to 420k with current valuation (35B).

What is the real valuation of this company by the time of its IPO (possibly Q2/Q3 2020) considering they haven’t raised any new money in 2 years? What is the internal concensus on how the stock will rise or fall in the next four years? How heavy should I discount its valuation if I ever get comparable offers from other companies?

Current TC @ Zillow seattle: P3 192K

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TOP 19 Comments
  • Do you really think that a website that rents hotel rooms is worth 35B? I would discount it by 50-80% or more.
    Dec 9, 2019 7
    • Msft, that might have been the case before but now with all of the fees, esp cleaning, Airbnb isn’t much cheaper and can cost more than hotels.
      Dec 9, 2019
    • New / Strategy
      NonCodeSW1

      New Strategy

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      NonCodeSW1more
      That's not true of all Airbnb places. When you can book a room instead of the entire place, it's less. There are areas where there's no hotels at all but there's people with homes who can provide lodging via Airbnb.
      Dec 9, 2019
  • Intuit bz1k7x
    IPO market has soured. They’ll take a haircut if they really wanna go public. The cat is out of the bag on the public market being used as bagholders. It turns out, nobody wants to be a bagholder.
    Dec 8, 2019 0
  • Airbnb trvckebfc
    Discount 30%
    Dec 9, 2019 3
    • Airbnb trvckebfc
      Yup, that range sounds reasonable. After the other big IPO flops, definitely more caution
      Dec 9, 2019
    • Intuit bz1k7x
      Nobody is charmed anymore since these firms have to become trillion dollar companies because VC firms extracted all the value. There’s nothing left for the public, no profits to be shared with post IPO investors.

      How many trillion dollar companies has SV produced? More than 1? No
      Dec 9, 2019
  • Dropbox duduhe
    If you’re reading this it’s too late
    Dec 8, 2019 0
  • Google harro
    Repeat after me:

    Startup valuations are a big fat lie.
    Startup valuations are a big fat lie.
    Startup valuations are a big fat lie.

    When people give a "valuation" for a not-traded company, they are dividing the price-per-share of the shares the last round got, by the fraction of the company those shares represented. But not all shares are equal, so that division makes no sense.

    Unless you're getting the same Series F Preferred Double Secret Bonus Shares that the last round of investors got (spoiler alert: you ain't), that "valuation" is completely and utterly bogus.

    You can assume Airbnb is "worth" at least ~5B... because that's how much some shares of it have already sold for. But that 5B already belongs to other people! I'd value your RSUs at no more than the paper they're written on. Okay, maybe $10-20 a share. Certainly not $100+. And don't forget to divide by the 4 year vesting schedule: after IPO, refreshers are likely to drop quite a bit, since then the company is actually paying something for them.
    Dec 13, 2019 0
  • Microsoft / Eng universale
    Is it too late to join AirBnB now? Your stocks won’t vest by IPO and could go south
    Dec 9, 2019 0
  • New
    Platforms can be worth a lot, but Airbnb isn't a platform that can "lock in" users like Facebook. It's really easy to compete with them, especially if you undercut on fees.

    Just look at Uber and Lyft... and how their competitors Bolt and Yandex.taxi (and whatever the ones in China are called) can knock them off easy.
    Dec 12, 2019 0
  • Microsoft EwNc66
    Less than Expedia . It’s a boring website
    Dec 12, 2019 0
  • Airbnb lzhxy
    Probably a 50% cut after IPO, given the current market sentiment on unicorns. However Airbnb is already profitable so that might make a bit difference.
    Dec 10, 2019 0

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