I had a Fomo seeing everyone getting rich by holding crypto.
I ended up buying BTC at 60K. It has been falling since then.
Does the prediction of BTC reaching 300K in next 5 years still valid or should I cut my loss.
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In contrast, crypto has no intrinsic value to speak of. An investor can't derive an estimate for the future price of crypto without referencing its price history, meaning it's fundamentally a speculation and at best zero-sum. However, exchanges and miners always take their (substantial) cuts off every transaction, and with PoW based cryptos like BTC, miners will be inflating the supply for the next 100+ years forcing markets to absorb millions of $ in value every day. Bitcoin is negative-sum.
I would argue that bitcoin as an entire decentralized network (and it's adoption) is what provides the value, not necessarily the individual bitcoin when looking at it from a standalone perspective. And I would apply this same standard to a social media platform like Facebook, where the overwhelming majority of it's value comes from it's network (userbase) and not from it's instrinsic value (which is nearly negligible compared to it's market cap).
You say bitcoin will be inflated in supply for the next 100+ years. But bitcoin has a supply cap at 21M, while the underlying stock you own can be diluted through additionally issued shares. You can in fact make the same argument about gold, where "miners will inflate the supply for the next 100+ years".
Additionally, you say that you cannot derive an estimate without referencing its price history. I would argue that the stock to flow model does exactly this (not to mention how correlated the network effect is with pricing), and is in fact more tightly followed than many pricing models for stocks that are based on "fundamental analysis".
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