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Inventory of homes has already started climbing (because people are not buying due to high interest) that will automatically cause panic for flippers and second buyers to sell. Investment bankers have started exiting the housing sighting the same incoming dip to safer investments (hint hint bonds and interest based vehicles) because they are aggressively returning back this year.
So where does that leave us? People unloaded their stock gains for down payments and bought homes worth 1.8M heck even 1.9M in remote areas like Bothell. With stocks crashing but lower interest rates starting end of 2021 they still pushed hard due to ~2.5ish % mortgages. Now both of them are gone! Amazon, Google are down -12% since last 6 months and there is atleast 20% correction expected in SnP from this point. None of the TC or 15% assumptions matter till feds are done with rate hikes. By end of year there will be enough inventory that if stocks start climbing back up next year it will easy peasy peel of the 50% price pumps that people are listing their homes on today.
There are 1 or none offers on most of the houses.
Affordability is going down. Good chance of pricing going down
And all these so called toms of people will flee the market when recession kicks in with job loss. Housing market ran on sentiment of low rate and FOMO in last 12 months. When economy soften with layoff then all these eager to buy people along with investors, will disappear.
Lots of speculation investors will flood the market with sales once there’s a 10% drop. My bet is that at 6% there will be a 20% drop in prices
If u have the patience, no harm in waiting. But expecting a crash in <1.5M houses is a little hard to see.. There’s tons of people with money waiting for crash..
Seattle is tech dominated. Wages are raising fast. 800k was affordable with salaries from 2018. Now, 1.2M should be fine.