I started looking at various portfolio mixes in this website
https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolios/
Eventually I got to this
40% in FNILX (S&P 500 fund)
20% in VCLT (Long term Corporate Bonds)
20% in IAU (Gold)
20% in VNQ (Real Estate)
Here's how the numbers look to me based of recent data from yahoo finance
ETF 1YR 3YR 5YR 10YR
VOO/FNILX (40%) 7.34 10.62 10.66 7.3
VNQ (20%) -6.88 2.18 5.36 9.67
VCLT (20%) 13.97 8.84 9 7.84
IAU (20%) 25.85 12.48 8.42 3.39
Avg Rate of Return 9.52 8.94 8.82 7.112
I would love to hear if there are any negative thoughts or gaps on this portfolio. it is designed to work in all scenarios similar to Ray Dalio’s All-Weather portfolio mix
30.00% US Total Stock Market (VTI)
40.00% Long Term Treasuries (TLT)
15.00% Intermediate-Term Treasuries (VGIT)
7.50% Commodities (DBC / GSG)
7.50% Gold (IAU)
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https://www.investingadvicewatchdog.com/do-it-yourself.html
The Truth About Money 4th Edition https://www.amazon.com/dp/0062006487/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_api_i_QDCfFbCD5F88K
Unless Fed impose negative interest rate, bond won't generate any meaningful capital gain.
How you heard of Dragon Profilio?
It is 20% each on stock, bond, gold, commodity and violility. It has better return than Ray Dalio. The only problem is hard for retail investors to long commodities and violility.
What etf would you use for active long volatility?
Gold take the place of treasuries. If negative interest rate, gold will go up. If inflation, gold will go up. If deflation, gold stay flat but everything else drops. It is a good hedge against the equity bubble.